Raebareli has been one of the prestigious seats since 1952. The main reason for its prominence is the candidature of Feroze Gandhi, son-in-law of incumbent Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. He represented the seat in 1952 and 1957. Since 1952, the seat has been represented most of the time by the Gandhi family and the Congress party. Only for six years since 1952 has the seat been represented by a non-Congress party. In 1977, for three years, Raj Narain of the Janta party, and from 1996 to 1999, for two terms and for three years, Ashok Singh of the BJP represented the seat.
Raebareli’s Lok Sabha seat has the unique distinction of defeating the incumbent Prime Minister. In 1977, on this seat, Indira Gandhi lost her election to Raj Narain of the Janata Party by a massive margin of 55262 votes. Raj Narain of the Janata party got 53.51 per cent of the vote, while Indira Gandhi got 36.89 per cent of the vote in 1977. There is no other such instance when an incumbent Prime Minister lost an election. There were multiple examples when the incumbent Chief Minister lost his own election, but this happened only to a single incumbent PM in the Raebareli Lok Sabha seat.
The Congress party performance in 1996 and 1998 was highly unsatisfactory. The party lost its deposit on both occasions. In the 1996 Lok Sabha election, the Congress party candidate Vikram Kaul garnered only 5.29 per cent of votes, less than one-third of the vote share required to save its deposit. In the 1998 Lok Sabha election for the Raebareli Lok Sabha seat, the Congress party garnered only 7.56 per cent of votes, and again, like in 1996, the party lost its deposit. The only improvement in Congress party performance from 1996 to 1998 is that it got nearly 1.5 times more votes in 1998 than in the 1996 LS elections. In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP denied a ticket to its sitting MP and gave a ticket to Arun Nehru, and the BJP was defeated.
If we consider the performance of the Congress party in the 2022 Assembly election on the five seats of the Raebareli Lok Sabha seat, then the Congress party performance was highly despicable. The performance of the Congress party in the 2022 Assembly Poll is the reason behind the delayed announcement of candidates not only from Raebareli but also from Amethi. As per the 2022 Assembly election on all 5 Assembly Constituencies, the Congress party garnered only 13.15 per cent of the vote. The Congress party lost its deposit on three Assembly seats: Harchandpur, Rae Bareli, and Unchahar. If we add the party-wise vote share of the parties on five Assembly Constituencies within Raebareli Lok Sabha seat, then the Samajwadi Party will have the highest vote share, with 402179 votes. The BJP got nearly 20000 less votes than the SP as per Assembly poll trends. The BJP got a big boost from the joining of Unchahar SP MLA Manoj Pandey to the BJP. If we add Manoj Pandey’s vote share to the BJP share, then BJP remains much ahead of the other parties. So, by all indications, the BJP is strong, while the Congress party is far behind the BJP. The alliance of the SP and the Congress party in the Raebareli seat is also challenged by the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi). The BSP has put Thakur Prasad Yadav, andAD(K) has put Hafiz Mohammad Mobeen as their candidate for the seat. These two candidates have enough potential to cut into the vote bank of the SP-Congress party alliance.
Rahul Gandhi compared voters of North and South India, praising the southern state for being interested in issues, which would be a big issue for the BJP to target Rahul Gandhi. Such a comparison is not appreciable in a vibrant democracy like India. The Congress party’s mass base is shrinking rapidly. In the 2006 by-poll the Congress party won the seat by margin of nearly 4.18 lakh which reduced to 1.67 lakh in 2019 Lok Sabha election.
The strategic mistake committed by the Gandhi family is also noticeable. The Gandhi family has put Kishori Lal Sharma as its candidate from Amethi. Now, Sharma will remain confined to Amethi during the entire election period. If he were not the candidate from Amethi, then he would have used his mass contact with Raebareli to brighten Rahul Gandhi’s prospects. Since Raebareli and Amethi will simultaneously go to the polls in the 5th phase.
The Congress party should also explain its ticket distribution process in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The party denied a ticket to its sitting MP from Barpeta, Abdul Khaleque, who won the seat by a margin of 140307 votes, while it renominated its Amethi seat to defeat the candidate by a margin of 55000 votes, Rahul Gandhi, from the neighbouring seat Raebareli.
