If a week is a long time in politics, then the last few months must have felt like an eternity for the Congress party. Rahul Gandhi, restricted by his capability and capacity, has been a helpless observer to the steady decimation of his party’s prospects ahead of the Lok Sabha elections 2024.
However, this electoral eradication must not be attributed to the lack of effort, for Congress attempted several gimmicks, starting with the caste census in 2023. Most recently, they tried pulling out a new rabbit from the same old hat, while backing the farmer protests that fizzled out faster than a can of soda in the state of Punjab.
Theatrics were also extended to the issue of tax devolution, where a north-south divide narrative was attempted to corner the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Much to the dismay of the Congress, the narrative was rejected in both regions, leaving the Congress alliance Chief Ministers from the southern states embarrassed.
The irony was not lost on anyone when the Deputy Chief Minister of Karnataka was rushed to the Himalayan State to rescue the Congress Government from collapsing under its weight, even with a two-third majority in the assembly. The state Congress unit was also under scrutiny from its supporters when they were seen backing the idea of a legal guarantee for Minimum Support Price (MSP), meant to benefit only a small section of the farmers in Punjab and Haryana.
The tables have turned for the Congress. The odds no longer favour them, as they did nine months ago after the resounding win in Karnataka. The preparations for Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, in the following months, saw the coming together of an alliance that appeared to be the chariot of the prince on paper, but turned out to be the chaos of a pauper in electoral reality.
The litmus test for 2024 was not Karnataka in 2023, but the state assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Gujarat in 2022. The economic hangover of the pandemic was quite fresh, and an array of factors were in play when the electorate was retaining governments (or not).
The election results of December 2023 validated two political theories. One, the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was all set to come back for a third term. Two, the Congress alliance was falling quicker than a house of cards. The subsequent departure of Nitish Kumar and the collapse of the Bihar State Government further added to Congress’ woes. Meanwhile, BJP’s momentum had now transformed into a wave, buoyed by the faith and confidence of the voters in Modi, as evident by the mandates in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.
The Sarsanghchalak stressed on the need to follow the great path shown by our glorious icons like Mahapurush Shankardev and Lachit Borphukan etc
The homecoming of Ram Lalla in January, one of the most auspicious occasions for the civilisation in centuries, also doubled up as another political chapter in the long history of the Congress- that of confusion, chaos, and complete breakdown. Within the party, there was no consensus on the presence of the leadership in the ceremony. The fallout in several pockets of the Congress was for everyone to see.
BJP, walking the ideological talk, had fulfilled another promise. After the abrogation of Article 370, this was another feather in the hat of the party. However, along with ideology, the creation of a hundred crore beneficiaries via more than 300 programmes under DBTs (Direct Benefit Transfers) ushering in financial inclusion, exponential increase in infrastructural investments ushering growth at the micro level, and an overall transformation of the rural socio-economic ecosystem now serves as an invincible foundation for the success of the BJP. Wins have been on both fronts, from welfare to ideology.
Therefore, it would not be an exaggeration to say that today, in the Indian political setup, the BJP, led by Modi, has an unparalleled gravitational pull (to put it in a physics metaphor). Even the regional parties and partners are reevaluating their relationship with the Centre, factoring in the long-term interests of their state and the country at large.
Ahead of the national elections, the BJP has been in expansion mode, and for all the right reasons. In Punjab, the Congress state leadership is already with the BJP. The stalwarts include Captain Amarinder Singh, Preneet Kaur (sitting Patiala MP), and Sunil Jakhar. In Haryana, a swift transition, which caught everyone by surprise, led to the elevation of a new Chief Minister, leaving Manohar Lal Khattar to fight Lok Sabha election from Karnal and the alliance partner JJP (led by Dushyant Chautala) in the dumps.
In Himachal, the BJP engineered an unprecedented Rajya Sabha victory, as the Congress candidate was caught napping. This was followed by six Congress MLAs jumping ship, only to be fielded on a BJP ticket for the upcoming by-polls. In Uttar Pradesh, the Rashtriya Lok Dal and Apna Dal (2 Lok Sabha seats in 2019) are with the NDA (National Democratic Alliance). In Bihar, it is back to the status quo from 2019, as the BJP-led alliance looks good to secure over 35 seats (out of 40) in 2024.
In Karnataka, the Janata Dal (Secular), previously a Congress ally, has joined hands with the BJP, bringing with them a significant double-digit vote share and the prospects of three additional seats. In Maharashtra, the alliance has all corners covered, or too many, as some fear. However, with majority factions of the Shiv Sena and NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) on the BJP side, the odds are comfortably in the favour of the NDA.
In Odisha, the alliance with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) may not have materialised, but across the state, the majority of seats look set to go to the NDA, including those of the BJD. In Andhra Pradesh, TDP (Telugu Desam Party) and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party (JSP) have already worked out seat-sharing arrangements for the simultaneous Lok Sabha and state assembly elections. Beyond the alliances, the BJP has been expanding across states, getting sitting MLAs and MPs into its fold. The key here is not the seats but the vote share they bring to the table.
In the run-up to the 2024 elections, the question is not of 400 paar, for that is a consequence of the larger game at play, that of 40 paar. For the BJP, it would be increasing its vote share alone to more than 40 per cent, up from 37-odd per cent in 2019 and 31 per cent in 2014. The probability also favours the BJP here. For its counterpart, however, the challenge is to go beyond 40 seats, for in Kerala, the communists are defying the Congress, and in Punjab, the cadre is scattered and lost. The heartland, with 350-odd seats, is an assumed lost cause.
For Congress and its leftover alliance partners, the BJP juggernaut is like a rampaging river; it is unstoppable. The momentum is with the BJP, while the miseries are with the Congress. With the election extended to June, the heat will not only be for the MPs in play, but also for the Congress. Quite like the story of the hare and the tortoise, the BJP march for 2024 was well underway in 2022. The Congress, quite like the hare, had their share of theatrics, but like for their ally in Delhi, the tricks are no longer working.
