Tamil Nadu is gearing up for a highly anticipated electoral battle that will test the political fortunes of various parties in the state. Among the key contenders, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a significant challenge as it aims to secure a substantial increase in its vote share, crossing the crucial threshold of 20 percent.
Former IPS officer turned politician Annamalai has been at the forefront of the BJP’s campaign efforts, embarking on a statewide yatra to rally support and convert the massive turnouts into electoral victories. The upcoming polls present a crucial opportunity for Annamalai to demonstrate the effectiveness of his grassroots efforts and translate them into tangible gains at the ballot box.
Historically, electoral success in Tamil Nadu has often been contingent on alliances with the Congress party. Of the 17 Lok Sabha polls held since 1952, Congress-led alliances have emerged victorious in the majority, demonstrating the importance of coalition politics in the state.
In Tamil Nadu, this is the first time in the poll history; AIADMK is facing the voters after parting ways with the NDA last year. So unlike the DMK, AIADMK does not have a PM face to tell the voters, nor does it have a pan-India party back up. Edapadi K Palaniswamy launched a strong anti-Modi campaign and pro minority appeasement politics stand. This has promoted the DMK leader and CM MK Stalin to accuse the AIADMK of having a clandestine tactical understanding with the BJP to divert DMK and minority votes.
DMK, alleged, B Team, Makkal Needhi Maiam, led by actor Kamal Hassan, opted to support DMK, and the ex-film director, most non-dependable for making statements contradicting to his earlier ones , started supporting DMK following his failure to get a farmer symbol for his Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK). Though DMK was successful in keeping all allies intact in its alliance despite open displeasures, accommodating their demands to the maximum and changing their constituencies to suit their victories.
In Tamil Nadu, it is proved that the alliance where the Congress found place won . Of the 17 Lok Sabha polls from 1952 to 2019, the Congress won a large number of seats in 1952, 1957, and 1962, i.e., in the first three Lok Sabha polls. After DMK captured power in 1967, DMK won 37 seats in Tamil Nadu while Congress got 3 seats. This was the first poll in Congress since the demise of Lal Bahadur Shastri under the leadership of Indira Gandhi. In 1971, the Congress-DMK alliance won 38 seats. Congress Old, led by Kamaraj, had a lone seat. After the proclamation of Emergency in 1976, Congress was decimated across the nation. But in Tamil Nadu, AIADMK and Congress combined won 34 seats.
In 1980 , DMK-Congress combined won 37 seats, leaving two to AIADMK. In the 1984, 1989, and 1991 Lok Sabha polls , AIADMK-Congress, and DMK-TMC-Congress won considerably. In 2004, 2009, 2009, and 2019, the DMK–Congress alliance won. In 2014, in AIADMK, which contested alone, won 37 seats out of 39, and in 1998, the AIADMK–BJP , and in 1991, the DMK-BJP alliance won. Of the 17 Lok Sabha elections held so far, barring 1967 1998, 1991, and 2014 in 13 Lok Sabha polls, Tamil Nadu polls voted for the alliance part of Congress. In the 2014 Lok Sabha, where Modi was projected as the PM candidate, the alliance that included PMK, DMDK, won 18 per cent of vote share. People of Tamil Nadu always vote considering who should become PM and who should lead the government . it is the trend so far. In the coming election, DMK led alliance did not announce its PMK candidate and AIADMK too. The BJP alone announced its PM candidate, Modi.
Unfazed by the AIADMK’s splitting the relationship with the BJP (more particularly its failure to change Annamamalai as TN party head and insistence on naming Edapadi K Palaniswamy as CM candidate for the 2026 assembly elections, which did not cut much ice in BJP tops), the BJP has been successful in coalescing its dependable allies in its alliance and is upbeat to face the April 19 polls more confidently. It banks on the PM Modi’s whirlwind tour, various high ticket projects for the state , new ones, and its ten years of past achievements. The state wide yatra of Annamalai, flagged off on July 28 last year by Home Minister Amit Shah, saw the participation of several union ministers, including party’s national president, JP Nadda, in Chennai. According to party media wing functionary ANS Prasad “ the 108th Day i.e., on February culmination event at Palladam, was held with the participation of PM Modi. During the yatra Annamalai made 210 speeches, and over 15,000 petitions were received through the complaint box from across Tamil Nadu. The total number of beneficiaries who interacted was 4958, and a booklet on what PM Modi did for Tamil Nadu was distributed to people. Annamalai had covered a total distance of 9827 km during his yatra.
He said, “ This is the first time in the poll history of Tamil Nadu that a PM toured Tamil Nadu five times or more times in three months. Our strategy is clear. The BJP is confident of doing well in the northern part of he country. The party is keen on setting up a strong base in the south, especially in Tamil Nadu, the so called Dravidian soil. The message is loud and clear, and the messenger , our leader Modi is working day and night to reach the party’s dreams in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh,Kerala, Telangana and Karnataka ”.
TN The BJP has reached a pact with TMC and AMMK and managed to rope in OPS to bolster its chances of winning seats in the southern districts of the state. Efforts to rope in PMK and DMDK is going on and a likely announcement will be made at any time. All predictions and party top leadership in TN are confident that BJP will touch the double digit vote share. Some say it will be over 25. In some constituencies, it will be over 35 percent.”.
Buoyed by the positive and clear predictions made by various agencies, BJP has started concentrating its poll strategies in place before the campaigning started. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP in alliance with AIADMK –the then ruling party), it one seat (AIADMK), leaving 39 seats to DMK. The lone Puducherry was won by Congress.
This time BJP may use “ anti-Hindu, separatist agenda, and all round corruption, Nonfulfillment of poll promises of the DMK will find place in BJP’s poll plank while DMK would use BJP’s divisive, communal , north flourishes, south wanes ‘ , anti-North, minority appeasement, , fascist BJP as its key campaigning motto.
Be that as it may, will the BJP register the expected vote share ? An analysis of its past history would shed some light on its performance. When Bharatya Jan Sangh was formed in 19051 , branches were also started in Tamil Nadu. VK John, who was a member of the upper council, was appointed president of BJS. In the first Lok Sabha polls held in 1952 after independence, BJS contested two seats in the Madras Presidency, or Rajdhani. In 1967, Jan Sangh contested 24 constituencies and registered 0.15 percent of votes. In 1980 after the BJP came into existence, it started contesting in Tamil Nadu. It put up candidates in 10 assembly constituencies and got a vote share of 0.07 per centage. In 1989 Lok Sabha polls, the then BJP candidate and the current MLA M R Gandhi secured 39,164 votes. Pon Radhakrishnan, a full time workers of the Hindu Munnani Pon Radhakrishnan contested the Lok Sabha polls in 1991 and polled 1,20,029 votes. This had given a ray of hope for the saffron party it would have a bright future ahead.
In 1996, the BJP secured 130753 voes in Nagercoil, 79,051 in Thiruchendur , 52,120 votes in Tenkasi and 43253 cotes in Coimbatore, proving its presence in Tamil Nadu politics. In 1998 Lok Sabha polls, BJP part of the AIADMK alliance, contested 5 constituencies , won in Coimabtore, Nilgiris, Tiruchi. A year later ( 1999) part of DMK block, BJP won in Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Tiruchy and Nagercoil Lok sabha constituencies. In 2001 assembly polls, BJP won four seats with DMK alliance, and in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, it aligned with AIADMK and contested . in 2006, 2009 Lok Sabha polls and in 2011 Assembly elections, BJP chose to contest alone . its votes share has improved to 3 percent. In 2014 , PMK, DMDK, MDMK and some smaller outfits joined the NDA coalition, which secured 18 per cent vote share by winning two seats (BJP). The DMK and Congress alone could not win a seat. In 2016 Assembly polls, BJP contested in 188 assembly segments, polled 12,28,704 votes. Its poll share was 2.84 percent. This was the highest vote share of BJP so far in Tamil Nadu.
After the demise of AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa, the BJP found a place in the AIADMK alliance to contest the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly elections. It has four MLAs currently. Annamalai who was appointed as state BJP in 2021 with his young blood coupled with his engineering degree, business management PG and IPS background , a rare combination, gave fillip to the party’s growth in TN with his game plans. While the alliance with the AIADMK still continued, in the 2022 February urban Local bodies polls, BJP contested alone and secured a vote share of over 5 percent. Not able to stomaching Annamalai’s meteoric growth and mass acceptance of all walks of people, AIADMK found reasons to severe ties with BJP. Its efforts to remove Annamalai from the post failed.
In this background, pollsters predict the BJP would secure 18-22 percent vote share, which works as a tonic for the cadres. But past history was against jubilation. But the scenario is entirely new and not in tune with the past. Modi becoming PM three times has become certain, and the party winning over 400 plus seats, the absence of PM candidate in the opposition camp, and fissures in the I.N.D.I. Alliance are advantages for the BJP. The first timers and youngsters, fence sitters, and people below 40 years would play a crucial and significant role in supporting the BJP. That will change the winds in favour of BJP to win 5- 9 seats in Tamil Nadu. Annamalai and others have been saying that TN should send more MPs to become ministers.
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