Odisha is one of the important states in India, bordering West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Andhra Pradesh. The State is being ruled by the Biju Janta Dal (BJD) headed by Navin Patnaik 2000. Odisha has 21 seats in Lok Sabha and 147 seats in Assembly. Odisha is one of the four States along with Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Andhra Pradesh that go to Assembly elections along with Lok Sabha elections.
The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and the BJD are all set to revive their old alliance. In itself, its a peculiar experiment as the ruling and the main Opposition parties are forging alliances. This shows their political wisdom. These two parties were strong allies for a long time. But in the 2009 elections, the alliance was broken. Since the existence of the BJD in 1997 until 2009, the BJP and the BJD were allies in all elections. The alliance of these two parties was very successful, and the alliance had completely sidelined the Congress party in State politics. If the BJP and the BJD do not forge an alliance, then the Congress party may rule the State. But the alliance had completely weakened the Congress Party. After the alliance broke in 2009, the BJP occupied the opposition space in State politics, and the Congress party relegated even further.
The BJP and the BJD should be appreciated, as they do not befool the people of the State by going for managed political contest, as in Punjab or Kerala. In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP ) and the Congress Party are contesting against each other. The AAP and the Congress party are allies in NCT of Delhi and the State of Haryana but they are contesting against each other in Punjab in forthcoming 2024 LS elections. The contest between the AAP and the Congress Party in Punjab is only to stop the BJP from becoming the main contestant in State. These two parties are so fearful of the BJP that they are going to contest against each other only to keep BJP from becoming the main Opposition in State. These parties are conscious that if the growing strength of the BJP will get swallow either of the parties in the State sooner than later.
Similar is the case in Kerala, where the Communist Party and the Congress Party are contesting against each other while they are allies in INDI alliance. In spite of the fact that the Communists and the Congress party fought in alliance in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly election. In Tripura Assembly election in 2023 Assembly election the Communist and the Congress party contested in alliance. Even in Tamil Nadu the Congress party and the Communists are also allies.
Like many other States the BJP has increased its mass base in Odisha too. The BJP won 8 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 LS poll in Odisha. The performance of the BJP was dramatic in 2019 LS poll as in 2014 LS poll the BJP won only one seat. So the BJP increased its tally by 7 seats from 2014 to 2019 LS poll. In last Assembly election in Odisha the BJP won 23 seats which was a big achievement for the party.
The Congress party is losing its base in Odisha since 2004. In all Assembly elections since 2004 the Congress party strength in Assembly is declining consistently. The Congress party won last Assembly election in Odisha in 1995. In Lok Sabha elections the Congress party satisfactory performance was in 1998 when the party won 17 Lok Sabha seats. Since then the tally of the Congress party in Lok Sabha like Assembly too is decreasing rapidly. In 2009 Lok Sabha election the Congress party drew blank in Lok Sabha elections. In 2019 LS poll the Congress party won one seat and was runner on one seat too. So in 2019 LS poll the Congress party was in direct contest on only two seats.
These two parties, the BJP and BJD have prior experience of smooth seat sharing. The BJD had also acknowledged the growing strength of BJP and prepared to treat the BJP on equal footing. These parties will distribute seats in proportion in Lok Sabha and in State Assembly too. During their alliance, these two parties have no problem in running of the government or alliance seats. The alliance between these two parties will further erode the Congress party vote base in State.
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