The first list of 195 candidates being released by the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is a big step by the party to get a lead over its rivals. The voters also consider the candidates on a first-come, first-serve basis too. Although there are currently six national parties in India, only the Congress Party and the BJP have a nationwide presence. These two have a presence in all the States and almost in all seats. Although the presence of the Congress party is declining election-by-election, the BJP presence is growing rapidly.
Initially, the BJP grew itself at the expense of the Congress Party, but now the BJP is also expanding itself at the cost of regional parties too. In Tripura and West Bengal, the BJP expanded itself at the expense of the Communists. The Communists have a diehard cadre base, and its tough to dislodge them as the BJP has done in West Bengal and Kerala. Taking lessons from these two States the BJP is now looking to expand itself to Kerala and other southern States.
Even in two previous Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019, the BJP won more than half of its seats against the Congress party. In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, the BJP and the Congress party were in direct contest on 190 seats. The BJP won 175 seats against the Congress party. Of its 303 seats in 2019, the BJP won 175 seats against the Congress party. In the 2014 LS poll on 189 seats, these two parties, the BJP and the INC, were in direct contest. The BJP won 166 of these seats, which was again more than half of its total in 2014.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha poll, the BJP and the Congress party were in direct contest for 171 seats. The BJP won only 78 seats, while the rest, 93, were won by the Congress party. The electoral journey from 2009 to 2014 and even to 2019 LS polls clearly shows how the BJP expanded its footprint while the Congress party presence declined.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress Party contested 421 seats and won 52 seats. The Congress party won 15 seats from the BJP and 37 seats from other parties. While the Congress had won 37 seats in a direct contest with other parties while contesting 231 seats,.
If we talk about state-wise direct contest, then on Andaman and Nicobar LS seat, both seats of Arunachal Pradesh, 9 seats in Assam, 2 seats in Bihar, Chandigarh Lok Sabha seat, all 11 seats of Chhattisgarh, seat of Daman and Diu, 5 seats of Delhi, both seats of Goa, all 26 seats in Gujarat, 9 seats in Haryana, all 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh, two seats in Jammu and Kashmir, seven seats in Jharkhand, 21 seats in Karnataka, one Thiruvananthapuram seat in Kerala, all 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra 15 seats, one in Manipur, 3 seats in Punjab, 24 seats in Rajasthan, 2 seats in Tamil Nadu, both seats in Tripura, 4 seats in Uttar Pradesh, all 5 seats in Uttarakhand and 1 seat in West Bengal.
The BJP will try to further improve its tally by winning more seats in direct contests with the Congress Party. In Tamil Nadu on Sivaganga and on Kanyakumari Lok Sabha seats, the BJP conceded defeat by hands of the Congress party. The BJP is all set to win these seats due to its Tamil Nadu political foray. Not only these seats, but the Congress party will also try to win more seats in TN this time. In Uttar Pradesh the BJP will try to win Rae Bareli, as the BJP won the Amethi Lok Sabha seat in 2014. The BJP slightly lost the Malda Dakshin seat in 2019, which the BJP will try to grab this time.
The Congress party won 8 seats in Punjab in 2019, but this time the BJP has replaced itself in Punjab as many stalwarts of the Congress party, like Capt Amarinder Singh, Sunil Jahkhar, and others, have joined the BJP deserting the Congress party. So in Punjab, the BJP will also defeat the Congress party in some seats. Singhbhum Congress Party MP Geeta Koda joined the BJP so the BJP will also defeat the Congress Party in this seat too. The BJP is all set to win the South Goa seat this time, so the BJP tally will also improve in Goa too. In Chhatisgarh, the BJP lost two seats to the Congress party, and this time it’s almost certain that the BJP is likely to make a clean sweep in Chhatisgarh.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP lost the Chhindwara Lok Sabha seat to the Congress party, but this time the BJP has a special plan to win this seat. The BJP lost Andman Nicobar’s seat by slight margin to the Congress party, which the BJP is likely to win this time. In Assam, the BJP lost the Nowgong seat to the Congress, which the BJP will try to retain. In Assam, the BJP ally, the AGP, and the UPPL are also likely to defeat the Congress party on some seats too. So the BJP and the NDA are all set to improve their tally against the Congress party with respect to their performance in the 2019 LS poll.
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