Punjab is going to next Waterloo for the Congress party. The Congress party won 52 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 LS poll. Out of these seats the Congress party won 60 per cent of the seats from the three States of Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The Congress party won 31 seats from these three States contesting on 38 seats. While in rest of country the Congress party won only 21 seats by contesting on 383 seats. The Congress party won 8 seats from Tamil Nadu only due to its alliance with the DMK. In 2014 LS poll the Congress party contested on its own on all seats and won 4.3 per cent of votes with no seats. In Kerala the Congress party won 15 seats within the UDF alliance with several parties including the Indian Union Muslim League.
Punjab was one of the States for the Congress party, in which the party stood on its own. The Congress party won the Punjab Assembly election even after 1984 anti-Sikh riots. The Congress party had galaxy of leaders in Punjab including Capt Amarinder Singh, Sunil Jakhar and many others. But due to the family oriented politics of the Gandhi family at the cost of the party had cost the Congress party dearly in entire country and especially to the Punjab. Many leaders of the Congress party left the party and many are looking to switch to another party. Many senior leaders of the Congress party in Punjab are looking to other parties like the BJP, the SAD to switch.
The Punjab Congress is going to meet the same fate as that of the Delhi Congress. There were several similarities between these two States for the Congress party. Both the States have strong leaders as the helm of affairs late Sheila Dikshit and Capt Amarinder Singh in Delhi and Punjab respectively. It is due to the big mishappening with the Congress party that the Aam Aadmi Party got its roots strong in these two States. Firstly, the AAP replaced itself with the Congress party in Delhi and the AAP is going to do the similar treatment to the Congress in Punjab too. For last two Assembly and Lok Sabha elections the Congress party is not able to open its account in Delhi.
The advent of the AAP in Punjab has completely sidelined the Congress party. The Congress party had complemented the efforts of the AAP in Punjab as it had taken the suicidal step of replacing popular Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh with that of Charanjit Singh Channi. Capt Amarinder Singh was not stooge of the Gandhi family and taken steps for welfare of the State primilarily. Besides the Gandhi family feud in Punjab of anointing choice of its leader rather than popularity had also cost dearly to the party.
The recent two Lok Sabha by-polls in Punjab had completely exposed the losing mass base of the party in State. Jalandhar Lok Sabha seat was represented by the Congress party sine 1999 LS poll. The Congress party won the seat in 1999, 20004 and 2009 with different candidates. In 2014 and 2019 LS polls Santokh Chaudhary of the Congress party won the seat. Santokh Chaudhary died during Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. Late Chaudhary was part of Rahul Gandhi’s BJY in Punjab when he was hospitalised and died. In the subsequent by-poll the Congress party put his widow Karamjit Kaur Chaudhary to encash sympathy factor. But the Congress party lost the seat in 2023 by-poll for first time since 1999 by big margin. This by-poll verdict exposed the depleting massbase of the Congress party in Punjab and Rahul Gandhi’s much hyped Bharat Jodo Yatra.
In Sangrur by-poll held due to resignation of Bhagwant Mann after becoming of the Chief Minister. In Sangrur 2022 by-poll the Congress party lost its deposit. In 2019 LS poll the Congress party got only 11.21 per cent of votes. In 2019 LS poll the Congress party garnered 27.43 per cent of vote. In between, the Congress party lost 16.22 per cent of votes. These two by-polls in Punjab had completely exposed the Congress party massbase. In 2022 Punjab Assembly election the Congress party seat tally decreased from 77 in 2017 to 18 in 2022. It was the worst performance of the Congress party in Punjab since 1997.The Congress party seat tally in Punjab Assembly emulated that of 1977 when the Congress party won 17 seats. The seat tally of the Congress party in 2022 decreased by 59 seats with respect to 2017. The AAP has cashed on the faults of the Congress party, which unceremoniously replaced Capt Amarinder Singh without any reason. The Congress party vote share decreased by 15 per cent plus in 2022 with respect to 2017 Punjab Assembly election.In 2019 LS poll, the Congress party established lead on 69 assembly segments while in 2022 LS poll the Congress party tally came down to 18 only.
The blunders of the Congress party like replacing Capt Amarinder Singh, by-poll verdicts, and 2022 Assembly election results, have clearly demonstrated that the Congress party has completely lost its ground in Punjab. In 2024 Lok Sabha polls the BJP will be the main challenger of the AAP in Punjab. Since in Lok Sabha poll the voters have national issues in core so they will consider the BJP as the main challenger to the AAP. In 2019 LS poll the BJP contested LS poll in alliance with the Shrimoni Akali Dal and won two seats while contesting on only three seats. Meanwhile the BJP mass base has increased in Punjab due to joining of several leaders, including Capt Amarinder Singh, Sunil Jakhar, and others. Its likely that several more Congress party leaders including some MPs and MLAs will also join the BJP.
The AAP had completely one sided rejected any alliance possibility with the Congress party in Punjab, considering the Congress party’s depleting mass base in the state and the verdict of the two LS seat by-polls. The AAP is open to alliances with the Congress party in NCT of Delhi but not in Punjab. The Punjab unit of the Congress party is in doldrums after exit of Capt Amarinder Singh and Sunil Jakhar.
