Pakistan has voted for a new Parliament on February 08, 2024. The lower House of the Senate has 336 seats, out of which 266 are directly elected, and 70 are reserved for Women and Minorities to be appointed by the elected Government. 169 is the required figure for the majority in the Senate. As usual, her Prime Minister will be determined by the Pakistan Army. My take is Mian Nawaz Sharif will be Prime Minister again as a proxy Army candidate.
The fact is, as of this date, not Nawaz of PML (N) but Imran Khan of PTI is the most popular leader in Pakistan. Imran Khan was removed as PM in 2021, sent to jail and debarred from contesting elections; Nawaz had to step down as PM in 2017 and subsequently leave the country, both on directions/ insistence of the Pakistan Army. The Army always had a firm hold on power transitions in Pakistan since 1947. Pakistan Army is instrumental in ensuring that no Prime Minister could so far serve for a full Five Year Term. Army Chiefs responsible for orchestrating Three Army Coups are Pakistan’s most powerful political players. Since independence, the Pakistan Army has been holding disproportionate resources.
At the time of partition, Pakistan received 21 per cent of the British Indian population and 17 per cent of its revenue. She also received 30 per cent of the British Indian Army, 40 per cent of the Navy, and 20 per cent of the Air Force. As per Britishers, Pashtuns and Punjabi Muslims were the Pak Martial Races/Forces. First, Pak Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan allocated 75 per cent of the Total Budget to Defence in his Central Budget in 1948. This was to cover the salaries and maintenance costs of the Forces. The reason was that she had inherited a huge Army that “needed a threat” if it was to be maintained. Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Grand Old Man of Pakistan, was of the opinion that “Pak Military was a servant of people. People and not the Army were responsible for making National Policy, and it was the duty of the Army to carry out tasks entrusted to it.” But the Pakistan Army has done the exact opposite. Its interference in politics has ranged from dislodging Civilian Governments through Coups to influencing weak leaders who readily gave in, ceded space to the Army and crawled when asked to kneel. Pakistan Army, though professional, had nurtured mistrust for Politicians from the beginning. It was driven by perceived threats from India. This perceived threat in the Army mindset was responsible for the Militarisation of the State and meddling in Domestic Politics and National Security Policy. Concerns for survival led to one-way nationalism in the country, making the Pakistan Army superior to developing democratic institutions and processes such as Parliament, Civil society, and Media. State Survival became a Priority in Pakistan, which called for an Assertive Federal Government, Aggressive/Strong Defence Posture and High Defence Expenditure, which was seen to be feasible under/with the tacit support of the Army.
Jinnah died in 1948, and Liaquat was assassinated in 1951. Thereafter, no Pakistani leader had the guts, virtues and brains to deal with difficult Political and Economic problems. All of them had their personal ambitions and parochial considerations well above the National interest. The Army took full advantage of this apathy of civilian leaders and kept on screwing the collar of Civil Government tight. Resultantly, the Pakistan Army assumed direct power thrice in history.
a) Pakistan Army Chiefs believed that a strong nation requires a centralised authority for political and economic modernisation so that politicians could not exploit people’s ethnic sentiments. In 1958, Pakistan plunged deep into an Economic and Political Crisis. General Mohammad Ayub Khan declared Martial Law, set aside the Civilian Government and suspended Political Activities. Disgruntled people supported the Army, which legitimised the Army Takeover.
b) Pakistan suffered a catastrophic, humiliating defeat when she was dismembered in 1971 by India during the liberation of Bangladesh. This raised the ire of People against the Army and the Government. In addition, the results of the 1977 General Elections saw rampant rigging by the Pakistan People’s Party of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. General Zia ul Haq was quick to take advantage, impose Martial Law and seize power in a coup in 1977. Bhutto was hanged in 1979.
c) In 1999, the Army, under General Parvez Musharraf, solely initiated a conflict with India in Kargil to snatch/claim her. In the ensuing 46 days of conflict, India heavily pounded Pakistan for her Army Chief’s misadventure in Kargil. General put the blame squarely on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, organised a coup and unceremoniously deposed the person who had appointed him to this post.
In a democracy, Defence Forces cannot be above the Rule of Law. But, Pakistan Army generally operates outside the purview of the Civilian Legal System with impunity. It has been proved time and again. However, the Pakistan Army extricated itself from power in the face of anti-regime protests in 2008. Since then, the Generals have tolerated Political Democracy because Direct Military Rule has been seen as anti-ethical to the image and interests of the Army. One is not wrong to say that, during this period, Pakistan Army has gone from Governorship back to Guardianship. In 2018, the Army preferred Imran over Nawaz. But since Imran, who enjoyed widespread public support, became vitally critical of the Army. Therefore, he was constantly abused and accused of corruption, which finally led to his arrest on May 09, 2023. As a result, angry PTI supporters vandalised more than 20 Defence Installations, including Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi and other State Buildings. No party could achieve a clear mandate in a recent General Election held in 2024. As on February 11, the results of the Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provinces have been announced. The results of Balochistan Province are yet to be announced. Out of declared results, Nawaz has 75, Bilawal Bhutto 54, MQM(P) and others 29, and Imran supported Independents 101 seats. 26 constituencies will go for repoll on February 15. The present Army Chief has a huge axe to grind against Imran, who had sacked him as ISI Supremo way back in 2019. No wonder if Nawaz is again the choice of Army. But he has bitter experience of Army Chiefs appointed/nominated by him. Musharraf and Bajawa, whom he appointed as Army Chief superseding other competent Lieutenant Generals, ousted him disgracefully in time.
Now, present Army chief General Asim Munir, who belongs to the same clan and area as Nawaz, has urged Polarised Political Leadership in Pakistan to form a “Unified Government of all democratic forces” backing Nawaz. Protests have erupted in Pakistan, with Police proclaiming section 144 in major cities. Things are in flux. But things will fall in place with the insistence of the Army in due course. When in place, Nawaz and Munir are going to be a deadly combination akin to that of Nawaz and Musharraf. It may throw up Second Kargil to wriggle out of the present economic cauldron in the country. Pakistan’s complex Civil-Military Relationship will continue to determine its politics for the foreseeable future. But one thing is clear. As of now, the State Structure of Pakistan is not collapsing/ disintegrating. The Army is in firm control and will ensure the establishment of a Civil Government to freely carry out its nefarious activities under the shadow of the Government of its choice. Pakistan is certainly embroiled in Political Chaos, which can turn any/either way. Therefore, the situation has to be keenly monitored by India to take suitable action if Pakistan insists on making a Strategic Blunder. We have to be very alert in the coming days.
