Maldives falls into China’s debt trap

On that fateful day of June 21, 2022 as we were celebrating the International Day of Yoga at the National Stadium in Male, an irate mob had broken into the ground. They heavily disrupted the event, kicking and beating the participants, attacking them with flag poles, pulling off electric and electronic connections and destroying a substantial quantity of food. I understood the attack was aimed at creating more destruction than what was visible. It had visibly unleashed the anti-Indian sentiments, fuelled by their main opposition party of Maldives, and funded by our Eastern and Western neighbours.

This incident of vandalism occurred in an event that I coordinated, on behalf of the High Commission of India, in collaboration with the Ministry of Youth, Sports and Community Empowerment. A number of international dignitaries and the top most people in the Maldivian socio-political stratum were present and I can never forget the bewildered look of Minister-in-charge of Youth, Sports and Community Empowerment, Ahmed Mahloof. Most people took time to internalise what they witnessed. As a friend of India and a very dear friend to many of us, Minister Mahloof summoned the security forces to disperse the protesters from the stadium.

Anti-Bharat Campaign

The major opposition party of 2022, now forms the ruling coalition of Maldives and it had come to power by propagating the ‘India Out’ campaign, targeting the long standing friendly relations between New Delhi and Male and spewing venom about the presence of Indian military in the Maldives.

I still strongly believe that the gradual sidelining of Mohamed Nasheed in the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) and his absence in countering the increasing trends of radicalisation and anti-Indian sentiments benefitted the Yameen-Muizzu duo. We must remember that Mahloof was among the first few people of Maldives who denounced the three junior Ministers in the cabinet of Muizzu for their disparaging remarks against our Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modiji.

Also, it was Mohamed Nasheed, erstwhile President and later Speaker of the Maldivian Parliament, Majlis, who is popularly perceived as architect of the democratic culture of the island nation, pushed the Government of Muizzu, in a way compelled it, to distance itself from the comments made by its Ministers. The Ministers were consequently suspended.

As President Muizzu is on an official visit to China and is increasingly emphasising on the robust relationship between Beijing and Male, amid the ongoing diplomatic row between India and Maldives, I can reconnect every single incident when the proponents of the ‘India Out’ programme tried to disrupt the various outreach programmes we used to propose.

Those who have visited Male can recall the physical proximity between the PPM office of Yameen and the Chinese Embassy, by the Boduthakurufanu Magu in the capital of Malé. The physical proximity is largely symbolic of the ideological and financial bonhomie between the two.

As the Director of Indian Cultural Centre, I faced serious challenges from these quarters during my tenure. For instance, if we were planning a football tournament with local enthusiasts and had just started with a preparatory meeting, the following morning we would get to know from our Maldivian partners that the tournament had been hijacked by our Eastern neighbours.

Male, as a city, can perhaps still recall the September 2019 football match at the same National Stadium where the Chinese football team had defeated the Maldives football team. The aggressive celebrations of the ‘Red Shirt’ worn by Chinese supporters were clearly visible.

Benefitting From Friendship with New Delhi

I must say my personal experiences of serving almost four years as ICC Director in Male reminds me of the island nation’s close ties with India, There is a long historic relationship between our two nations that is only being bolstered in recent times through Indian’s continuous support for the infrastructural projects in Maldives. We also share a close cultural connection manifested in linguistic, musical and other art forms.

New Delhi has not only allocated millions of dollars for various infrastructural projects in the greater Male region but has also simultaneously stood by Maldives during its moments of crisis. From the Tsunami to COVID-19 pandemic, India has always stood firmly besides Maldives. As the former Director of ICC in Maldives, I can personally cite numerous instances when we worked in close collaboration with the office of the President of Maldives in combating the pandemic. In those critical days, thousands of Indian volunteers worked hand in hand with their Maldivian counterparts. Comparing India’s intimate relationship with this island nation, China remains a distant power. India supplies boulders used in reclamation of land in Maldives, India also remains the largest exporter of food grains to this country.

While I am writing this article, I received a personal message from Ibrahim Hassan, former Minister of Higher Education in the last MDP Government in Maldives and one who has constantly worked for a better relationship with India,… “It is very clear that the comments from our 3 Deputy Ministers have been blown out of proportion… here by some radical bloggers. I am sure there will be individuals on both sides who intend to and/or will benefit from this situation. It is very sad.

Maldives needs India and India needs the Maldives as well. We cannot afford to let this unwarranted saga escalate. We need to do more to ensure our friendly relationship is not strained too much, and that we recover as soon as possible.”

While Hassan rightly points out the India-Maldives relationship on one hand, on the other, he also tries to hint at the people trying to destabilise our long standing relationship and people trying to destabilise this to serve their own personal, financial and political interest. President Nasheed, too, in a personal message regards the recent turn of events as sad and worrying?

President Nasheed’s comment and observations are crucial in this context as he was instrumental in assisting Gotabaya Rajapaksha to flee from Sri Lanka via Maldives.

Sri Lanka Fell Into a Debt Trap

The one time ‘all powerful Rajapakshas’ were responsible for loading Sri Lanka into a debt trap with China. This was the main reason for the economic debacle of Sri Lanka and Rajapaksha’s own ouster from the country, another among our closest neighbours. As a student of South Asian politics and with some comprehension of the geo-polictical importance of the Indian Ocean, I can well perceive the Chinese intentions in this case, too.

While President Muizzu is touring China and is appreciative of the Chinese principle of OBOR (One Belt One Road) project of Xi Jinping, many in the Maldives also apprehend what kind of debt trap it might incur for this picturesque archipelago. We must remember that this was the main change, along with the corruption allegation, which MDP levelled against the Government of Yameen. MDP came to power in the 2018 election. Yameen, half brother of the longest serving President of Maldives, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, was charged for corruption and he is still serving the sentence.

Muizzu was the Housing Minister in the cabinet of Gayoom, a portfolio which accorded him prominence, popularity and power. Muizzu capitalised upon popularity to first become Mayor of the Male city council, and consequently pushed himself to become  President of Maldives.

As President of Maldives now, he is joining hands with the Chinese companies and investors for future real estate projects.

With this aim in mind, Muizzu attended a two-day Investors Summit in a Chinese city during this visit. Treading upon the same path of Yameen’s ‘model of development’ and taking it forward by inviting Chinese investment in Maldives, might bring him catchy headlines but would ultimately be detrimental for the economic health of the nation. The ‘failed honeymoon’ of Chinese investment with Sri Lanka and the African countries and the consequent inability to repay the debts aggravated the economic and political crises of their nations.

But Muizzu and his political ecosystem which thrives on a sharp anti-Indian note is hellbent on following the Beijing route. My personal experience of seeing him as the Mayor of Male city reminds me that the proposed venues of most of our outdoor events were regretted on very flimsy grounds. Muizzu has built up his image, both personal and political, on a sharp anti-India stand with his brigade out on regular anti-India marches and shouting ‘India Out’ slogans outside the High Commission of India and sporadic protest rallies.

The current Government in Maldives has come to power by riding this anti-India horse and sharply dividing the country into two ideological camps. It would not be possible for them to drop the rhetoric or devise an alternate political ideology soon.

Having said this, we must not forget that generally Maldivians are of a friendly disposition and are dependent on India for various reasons. They are regular visitors to our Southern States for medical treatment.

I have stayed in Maldives for nearly four years and spent countless evenings in the company of Maldivians, organising Bollywood events in the islands. I know how connected Maldivians are to Indian music, food and the ways of life.

Politically, we must also remember that Muizzu secured 47 per cent votes in the first round of the Presidential elections. In a country of around 5.21 lakhs people, he rose to prominence by becoming Mayor of Male city by procuring only 11,000 votes.

It was only thus a matter of a few thousand votes which had given Beijing an opportunity to try to hegemonise the island nation. But that does not mark the end of the story. Majority of the Maldivians love Bharat very deeply.

Our Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modiji had, after the victory of Muizzu, stated that Bharat is committed to the bilateral relation and comprehensive development of Maldives, we should continue that commitment and ‘Neighbour First’ policy of New Delhi.