Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan (Left), West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee
Kerala is one of the important States in India on political front. The State has 20 Lok Sabha seats but the impact of its political impact is more penetrative. The State is witnessing the electoral contest either in Lok Sabha and in assembly poll by the CPM led LDF and the INC led UDF. The BJP never won any Lok Sabha seat from the State. Even Rahul Gandhi chose to contest from Wayanad in Kerala when he smelt in advance in 2019 that he would lose Amethi.
The real testing of I.N.D.I.A will be in the State of Kerala in 2024 LS poll in seat sharing. The Communists and the Congress Party are all set to forge alliance in 2024 LS poll. in States of Tripura and West Bengal. How will these two parties go in Kerala in 2024. Since the INC and the Communists both have high stakes in State of Kerala. These two parties the main contestants in Kerala along with their allies. The Communists are only ruling Kerala nowadays. In the past the Communists ruled Tripura, West Bengal besides Kerala. But Communists are now a force to reckon with in State of Kerala only. While the defacto leader of Congress Party has high stake in Kerala as he would contest from Wayanad in 2024 too if Court ruling finally go in his favour.
Daggers drwan between LDF and UDF
The cadres of these two alliances of the LDF and the UDF are diehard against each other. It will be extremely tough for the leadership of the two alliances to convince their cadres how to deal with each other. The BJP will try to take mileage of the dichotomy of these parties in Kerala as in any scenario these two will ally in States of West Bengal and Tripura.
At State level the alliances of LDF and UDF are alternately ruling the State since 1982 only with the exception of 2021. In 2021 the LDF being led by Pinayari Vijayan bounced back to power debunking the trend since1982 to alternately ruling the State.
The Gandhi family is contesting from southern States since 1978 when Indira Gandhi contested Chickmanglur by-poll and won the seat. Again in 1980 LS poll Indira Gandhi contested from Medak LS seat erstwhile in Andhra Pradesh but currently in Telengana. In 1999 LS poll Sonia Gandhi contested from Bellary in Karnataka but Rahul Gandhi is the first person from Gandhi scion to contest from Kerala.
The Congress Party won 52 seats in 2019 and of these 15 seats were from Kerala. It implies that the INC won 30% of the seats from entire country won from Kerala. So the INC is not going to spare seats for the Communists like Tripura and West Bengal. The vote difference between the LDF and UDf alliance was huge nearly 11 per cent in favour of UDF. The UDF won 19 seats while the LDF relegated to single seat.
Congress and Communists at Loggerheads in West Bengal
Similarly in West Bengal the Congress and the Communists were allies at Centre from 2004 to 2008 but in State politics they were at loggerheads. Mamata Banerjee took full advantage of this dichotomy and brought the real face of these two parties to public of being allies and opponents at the same time. In 2011 assembly poll Mamata Banerjee party came to power by demolishing the Communists citadel. Even voters of West Bengal punished these two parties of INC and Communists and these two parties have no MLAs as of now. In 2021 assembly poll these two parties contested in alliance and drew blank. In Sagardighi by-poll the INC candidate won but joined the AITC sooner than later. The BJP may replicate the West Bengal pattern in Kerala and can become a force to reckon which was being done by Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal.
The excellent work being executed by the Union government for public welfare will be a big factor in making BJP strong in Kerala. Some special works in infrastructure especially in road construction and railways brought goodwill among the masses in Kerala and will herald a new era for the BJP in Kerala. The BJP biggest hope is lies on Thiruvananthapuram seat.
Shashi Tharoor Disenchanted with the Gandhi Family
The BJP remain runner on this seat in last two elections of 2014 and 2019. Shashi Tharoor growing disenchantment with the Gandhi family and his direct challenge to Gandhi family candidate Mallikajun Kharge for Congress Party president post had divided the Congress cadres of Thiruvananthapuram seat between the Gandhi family loyalist and anti-loyalist. The division may cost Shashi Tharoor the seat. Even Tharoor is not in good book of the party nowadays. This division can bring the first Lok Sabha seat from Kerala to the BJP. Many leaders from INC and Commmunists may switch to the BJP in coming days due to the confusion on alliance and contest in some states.
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