The trends at the Election Commission site say Congress could win 135 seats in the 224-member assembly. It has already won 55 and is leading in 80. In contrast, the JD(S) tally will be 20 — as many as 17 short of its 2018 tally.
So, between these two anti-BJP parties, the Congress has the last laugh. The further marginalisation of JD(S) led by former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda and his son Kumaraswamy, also a former Chief Minister of Karnataka, means the family’s grip on Vokkaliga voters is over.
This will change the game a lot on ground zero of Karnataka politics as Congress state president D K Shivakumar is also a Vokkaliga leader and has proved his worth in these elections in the run-up to the polls as he could keep the party united. He would be expecting to be rewarded.
In 2018, Sachin Pilot played the role of Rajasthan Congress that Shivakumar played in Karnataka this year. Let us not go deep into the Rajasthan story except for the refrain that all is not well between Sachin Pilot and Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot.
All may not be good between Shivakumar and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah in Karnataka.
“We will do anything to keep BJP out of power…In the interest of Karnataka, my father should become the Chief Minister,” said Yathindra Siddaramaiah, the son of a doting dad. Dynasty does matter in Congress politics.
In 2019 during Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had won 25 out of 28 parliamentary seats. The divide between Congress and JD(S) had then come to light in more ways than one. The focus of politics of these parties is different from each other. They were in power in alliance, but they looked in opposite directions.
Observers noted that the so-called ‘vote transfer’ between Congress and the JD-S had “failed”. In 15 of the state’s 28 constituencies, the coalition candidate(s) got considerably fewer votes than the combined votes polled by the two parties in 2014. In the 2023 assembly polls this year, Congress gaining in the Old Mysuru region means that JD(S) has lost sizable ground.
There is another important takeaway; the Congress party has secured the lead in four out of five constituencies of the Chikkamagaluru district, which is considered a bastion of the BJP.
Between JD(S) and Congress for decades, there used to be politics of hypocrisy. Congress and the outfit of the Gowda family tried to consolidate each other’s base at the cost of their so-called partners; the voters saw through this, and in 2023, they decided to repose more faith in Congress. Hence JD(S) was dumped in many traditional seats where the Vokkaliga voters are sizable.
The problems between Congress and JD(S) were also visible in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in seats such as Sira and RR Nagar.
The JD(S) vote share in 2023 polls is 13.3 per cent, while for Congress, it shot up to 43.2. In 2018, the Congress vote share was 38.14 per cent, and JD(S) had managed to pick up 18.3 per cent of votes. Thus, the people intend to dump JD(S) clearly and emphatically.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, JD(S) performance was very dismal, and former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda himself lost from Tumkur parliamentary constituency. His grandson Nikhil Gowda also lost from Mandya.
The role of Muslim voters has become crucial in deciding the fate of JD(S) and Congress.
Muslims have also dumped the JD(S), and perhaps the comparison of Bajrang Dal with the notorious Popular Front of India (PFI) had endeared Muslim voters to the Congress.
The BJP hoped for this move to consolidate Hindu voters in its favour, but it is possible there was immense Muslim polarisation in favour of Congress. There was an enhanced significance of the battle in the Old Mysuru region. Stretching from Bengaluru (Rural) to Chamarajanagar districts, there are as many as 60 seats.
The Vokkaligas are crucial in this belt as they comprise about 42 per cent of the population. But so are Muslim voters.The Congress managed to get a sizable share of votes, and the BJP’s attempts to make a deeper penetration did not yield the expected results.
The politics around Tipu Sultan, too, was important in this belt. It is well known that Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah had introduced the ‘Tipu Jayanti celebrations, triggering a heated political row.
