Welcoming members of the adversary party, Trinamool, into its fold cost BJP dearly. Also the impact of COVID-19 had a fall-out on the results of the Bengal Assembly elections
Ten MLAs including seven from Trinamool Congress joined BJP
Not oblivious and complacent but believable disaster unfolded in reverse. Its reverse hyperbolic of reality as BJP got leads in 121 Assembly segments in 2019 but in 2021, it fell down at 77 seats. The beneficiaries created by TMC through different schemes, some of BJP’s wrong steps like welcoming TMC leaders without judging their strength and impact of Covid-19 on last two phases resulted in such decimated performance. Only 2% reduced vote share of BJP and 5% votes of Congress + Left shifting to TMC made all these situations.
It is clear in the Table given on right, BJP performed poorly in last two phases, may be due to Covid-19 pandemic. If we compare with 2019 situations, there are 65 seats where BJP won in both elections, 12 seats where BJP lost in 2019 but won in 2021 but 56 seats where BJP won in 2019 and now lost in 2021. This is a disaster for BJP which gave safe passage to TMC. If Congress + Left would have remained at 2019 support base, BJP would have gone to 93 (73+20) seats. In this case, TMC would have checked at 181 seats. So, it is also clear that Left+ votes have shifted to TMC, at least 5% compared to 2019 votes hare.
Actor Mithun Chakraborty was the face of TMC in Rajya Sabha
There are four major districts where BJP did not get a single seat like in Jhargram (4 Seats), South 24 Pargana (31 Seats), Purba Bardhaman (16 Seats) and Kolkata (11 Seats). In Jungle Mahal area where there are total 51 seats, BJP got only 17 seats. It clearly shows that BJP did not manage effectively the support of SC and ST. In the Matua community also, BJP did not get full support and it is still a matter of research how this community voted but it is certain, every community gave the priority of benefits received from TMC over all caste and religion based appeals. It is only Jalpaiguri region where BJP performed well, got 21 seats out of total 27 seats.
(The writer is a founder of PSSAD (Pro Survey, Skill and Data Analysis) Communications Pvt. Ltd.)