The return of KP Oli to power in Nepal indicates changing dynamics in the bilateral relations with Bharat and China
Prof Satish Kumar
The political climate is all set to change in Nepal. Nepal’s Left alliance of Maoists and Communists is certain to form the government in Kathmandu. Nepali Congress alliance of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, comprising Madhesi parties and former royalists, is not likely to pose much challenge. The Left alliance is inching towards massive victory. The first part of Direct Election has given huge margin in favour of Communists and Maoists combined. Oli will be occupying the post of PM. Oli’s return can be seen as a loss of face for India’s Nepal policy, as New Delhi had sought to bring Madhesis into the mainstream by unofficially supporting a six-month blockade of the Terai region. Oli led the protest against the Indian blockade—and against the Madhesis. He used the card of Indian interference in its sovereignty to move away from India—and towards China. Throughout his campaign during the election, Oli continued to reap advantages by criticising Bharat. His last innings was caught behind at the first sleep by unbeatable spin of Bharat. Since then he tried to germinate anti-Bharat plank and continued to engage China in the internal dynamics of Nepal. The October alliance between the two Left parties was calibrated by China. During the Deuba regime of last six months some of the agreements which were inked during Oli Regime between Nepal and China were scraped, looking at the trend China was very keen to assuage the drift between the two Left
parties and alleviate a Communist Government. After Doklam, China is more aggressive to create strategic challenges for India.
The restoration of peace and democracy in Nepal has many more things to narrate. Therefore, it is required to understand the dynamics of the new structure and its longevity. The elections held in two phases on November 26 in 32 pahadi districts and on December 7 in the remaining 45 are very significant, being the first under the 2015 constitution of Nepal. Earlier this year, local government elections were held in three phases. These elections mark the culmination of the process that started in November in 2006 with the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) to set up federal structure. Nepal has now formally transformed into a federal democratic republic. The House of Representatives comprises 275 members, of which 165 would be elected directly under the
first-past-the-post system while the remaining 110 will come through the proportional representation system. Therefore, the formation of Left Government is sure. Under the new system the PM will remain seated for at least two years, because the ‘No Confidence motion’ will not be
applicable, though the term is for five years. It sets that Oli would be the PM at least for two years.
Challenges for Oli
Now the bigger question is to maintain peace and political stability in the Tarai areas. The discontent among
the Madeshis and others is still unaddressed. Now that Oli and the Left Alliance have bagged a handsome majority, it will be interesting to see how they handle the contentious issue of Constitution amendment that the Madhes-based parties are demanding. The amendment, among others, is aimed at giving the Madhesi/minority population greater political representation. Interestingly, all the top leaders
of Madhes-based parties—Upendra Yadav, Mahanta Thakur, Anil Jha and Rajendra Mahato—have been elected and his all-conquering Left Alliance has fared very poorly in Province 2, with a dominant Madhesi population.
The political rigidity will bring forth unrest and violence like 2015. Merely Chinese pleasing will not pave the way for Oli. Last time Oli committed many mistakes. Soon after he became Prime Minister in October 2015, Oli decided to diversify Nepal’s dependence on Indian fuel, medicines and other commodities by signing an agreement to purchase one-third of the landlocked country’s petroleum needs from China. Both Kathmandu and Delhi knew that it was practically impossible to implement such a trade deal, considering 85 per cent of its trade passes through India.
Yet another major factor that has resonated with the voters is Oli’s handling of relations with India and China. When New Delhi imposed an undeclared border blockade against Nepal in 2015 and 2016, Oli signed watershed trade and transit framework agreements with China. For the first time, Nepal could now import its oil from China and use Chinese roads, railways and ports for third-country trade.
Issue of Kalapani
Kalapani is a region close to Nepal and the Himalayan country has been staking claim over the disputed territory for years. Kalapani is a 35 square kilometre area in the hill state’s Pithoragarh district. Uttarakhand shares an 80.5 km long porous border with Nepal and a 344 km border with China. Kalapani is considered as the origin of Kali River that flows from Nepal and enters Uttarakhand. In fact, both the nations are also working on a joint hydropower project Pancheshwar on the river on the Indian side. Above Kalapani there is no demarcation (of the boundary) between Indo-Nepal till China border. This could lead to
problems in the coming time. Nepal has been claiming its right over Kalapani and calling it a part of its Darchula
district. After Doklam, Bharat is deeply concerned about Kalapani dispute. It may provide an opportunity for China to flare up the issue along with Communist Government in Nepal.
Chinese Rail Route in Nepal: Will it work?
China under the one belt one road scheme is trying to woo Nepal through building network of rail and roads. But it looks grand on paper. The moment it comes down on the ground, it tells a different story. The Chinese rail route is nothing more than ‘the show case for Nepal’. Trade through China to Nepal has many technical as well practical problems. First, building such a railway track across the tallest mountains of the world would be very costly indeed. This is over and above the steep environmental and socio-economic challenges to be faced especially by Nepal. The Chinese railway line has now reached Shigatse in Tibet. From here, it has to cross a crucial 564 km stretch in the high altitude region to reach the Nepal border for a further journey across the Himalayas. Globally, there is no history of container freight movement at such high altitudes. The duration from China will take almost a month time to reach the train in Kathmandu.
Second, the Chinese economy is in trouble. The last budget of China has come down to single digit. It has to be analysed whether it is a systematic or temporary crisis. The cost of goods will face double taxation, one in Tibet and another one in Nepal. Therefore, the price of oil or any other goods will be unimaginable which will be difficult for Nepal to bear. Third, Chinese industries are located almost Southeast of China. Distance from Kathmandu would be more than 2500 km. The goods train from Nepal will return to China without any goods. Nepal does not produce anything substantive to deliver. One way trade does not move in any part of the world. Whereas, distance with Indian oil refinery in Bihar to Nepal is almost 200 km. India has 15 transit points on its border with Nepal, along with five transit routes to and from Bangladesh and Bhutan.
Bharat has always stood in the moment of crisis in Nepal. New Delhi was the first responder after the devastating April 25, 2015 Nepal earthquake, with the Modi Government mobilising resources and manpower to ensure relief reached within hours. Besides this, India and Nepal are seen to share a special relationship—with an open border and Nepalese nationals living and working in India besides being able to serve in the Indian Army.
Conclusion
The political system in Nepal has achieved a major success by creating a federal democratic structure. But Oli’s second term will be difficult and uphill task if he remained an anti-Bharat. Prachand another Maoist leader tried to move on the same route and ultimately changed his formula. Oli needs to learn from his predecessor. Nepal’s trade and social structures are connected with Bharat. It cannot move away by China’s inducements. Modi regime is working on “One culture and two Nations
theories”, which is very effective for both the countries. ABVP General Secretary Sunil Ambekar who is engaged in strengthening the cultural relations between the two countries believes that political stability in Nepal is dependent on Bharat-Nepal relations. Therefore, the statesmanship of Oli hinges on his balancing act and stewardship. Time will be the best judge to weigh the political acumen of Communist leaders in Nepal.
(The writer is Head Dept. of Political Science, CUH Mahendargarh)
Comments