Turkey’s overtures to India and the prospect of closer economic ties give a signal to Pakistan too
Kanwal Sibal
Turkish President Erdogan chose India as his first foreign destination after his victory in the April 16 constitutional referendum that has made him all-powerful in his country. Normally, the first foreign visit by a leader reflects the importance attached to the country being visited in terms of it’s foreign policy priorities. While Erdogan’s gesture towards India should be viewed positively, one should not over-read its meaning.
Turkey’s relationship with the West has developed increasing strains. The prospects of European Union membership have further receded with the rise of extreme right wing sentiments there in the wake of the refugee problem and Islamic terrorism raging Europe. In the context of the referendum, the polemics with Europe, especially Germany and the Netherlands, has become ugly with Erdogan castigating the resurfacing of the continents past Nazi impulses. This ruled out a European country for his first visit. Erdogan’s demand for extradition from the US of Fetullah Gulen, accused by him of plotting a coup against him, has become an issue of serious discord, which ruled out US as the first choice as that would have been read as a defensive initiative by him to work his way back into American favour. Having made his point, he will be visiting the US later this month.
In order to gain leverage with the West and open up options for Turkey, Erdogan has sought to mend ties with Russia by apologising for the downing of the Russian plane over Syria in November 2015. By this he has created space for his direct military intervention in Syria. Earlier, the Russians and others were openly accusing Turkey of links with the Islamic State. Erdogan has been demanding the ouster of Assad, but his role in Syria is criticised within Turkey itself by many for damaging the country’s security by involving it in the West Asian turmoil and inviting terrorist retaliation. Erdogan’s role in gradually Islamising Turkey and eroding the
country’s secular tradition is all too visible. Because of perceived revival of Ottoman ambitions of Turkey under Erdogan, the country’s relationship with the Arab world is distrustful. Turkey views Iran’s regional ambitions as a Shia power with concern. In reality, Turkey is essentially without friends in its region.
It is in this background that Erdogan’s overtures to India should be seen. China could have been his other destination for the first visit, but as he will be attending the One Belt One Road summit in Beijing in mid-May, India became the most viable option to signal his desire to develop stronger ties with the non-western world.
Turkey under Erdogan is looking at rising economic opportunities in Asia and Africa. Turkey’s economy is not doing well currently. According to the World Bank, Turkey’s growth slowed from 6.1 per cent in 2015 to an estimated 2.1 per cent in 2016, as the failed coup attempt depressed consumers and business confidence and tourism revenues fell. The Turkish Lira is under pressure. The estimated growth rate in 2017 is a mere 2.7 per cent. The rating agencies Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s have slashed Turkey’s credit rating to junk status and foreign investment has plunged by over 40 per cent last year. No wonder Erdogan was accompanied, apart from five Cabinet Ministers, by 150 businessmen on his India visit. The current levels of bilateral trade between India and Turkey stand at USD 6.4 billion, which is below potential. A target of USD 10 billion by 2020 has been set up. Modi has invited Turkish investments in India’s manufacturing sector, especially in India’s flagship programmes like “Make in India”, infrastructure (Turkey is strong in the construction sector) and Smart Cities, with both sides seeing mutual cooperation in the field of IT, pharmaceuticals, health and tourism as means to boost bilateral trade.
Erdogan’s interview to an Indian TV channel just before coming to India on Kashmir and India-Pakistan relations was ill-considered. He spoke about a multilateral solution to Kashmir “once and for all” with Turkey’s participation, gave Nawaz Sharif a positive chit, spoke of Pakistan being a “100 per cent Muslim country”, indicating a special religious bond with it on that account. He differentiated the Kashmir issue from the Kurdish issue which he characterised as one of terrorism, implying that terrorism was not an issue in J&K. In November last year during his visit to Pakistan, Erdogan had made several objectionable comments on Kashmir, speaking of events there as “hurting our conscience” and gave it a religious colour by referring to our brothers and sisters in Kashmir”. He wanted the international community to exert more efforts to solve the issue. On the other hand, his Op-Ed in one of our mainstream papers on the day of his visit was unexceptionable in its content. Some amends were made on the issue of terrorism in the joint statement as “Both sides urged all countries and entities to work sincerely to disrupt terrorist networks and their financing, and stop cross-border movement of terrorists”. The Turks are aware that for India the code word for Pakistan-sponsorship of terrorism against India is “cross- border terrorism”. The joint statement also endorsed India’s call for a UN Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism. In the joint statement Modi thanked Erdogan for Turkey’s support for India’s applications to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group. The catch here is that Turkey supports the NSG membership of both India and Pakistan, which effectively means alignment with the Chinese position on the subject. No significant agreements were signed during the visit.
How should one evaluate the results of Erdogan’s visit? Turkey will not change its position on India-Pakistan issues. Its strong relationship with Pakistan has got reinforced under Erdogan on the basis of Islamic affiliations. Erdogan’s relations with Nawaz Sharif are close. In May 2016, Nawaz Sharif attended Erdogan’s daughter’s wedding in Istanbul and was a witness at the Niqah ceremony. Turkey is not defensive on its chairmanship of the OIC Contact Group on Kashmir and wants India to ignore this issue between the two countries. India is aware that the Turkish position is entrenched on this subject and believes that notwithstanding this India needs to engage Turkey because of its undeniable regional importance. For India to be relevant in the evolution of the situation in West Asia, lines with Turkey have to be kept open. Of course, strengthened economic ties with Turkey serve mutual interest. If Turkey develops higher stakes in the Indian economy, it could possibly attenuate its position on some India-related issues. The chemistry between Modi and Erdogan is good. Turkey’s overtures to India and the prospect of closer economic ties with us send a signal to Pakistan too.
(The writer is former Foreign Secretary to the Government of India and a Padma?Shri awardee)
