-Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain-
Even before the Durbar moves from Jammu to Srinagar, signifying the beginning of the summer in the hills, the streets of Kashmir’s towns are littered with stones. Masked young men are enjoying their favorite hobby of hurling stones at Security Forces and Separatists are gleefully wringing their hands and hoping a few more innocent bystanders will die, to up the ante for the ‘campaigning season’ in the Valley. This was happening when the new government was about to take over.
Kashmir’s hyper active media has been projecting the anger and frustration of the people due to various reasons involving lack of sufficient socio-economic development and alleged atrocities by the Security Forces (SF). However, they never mention that a due process of law has been followed in all cases and for lack of evidence prosecution has not been possible. The SF point out the statistical data on the number of allegations and the ones proved with justice seen up to the last action. They also strongly hold forth on the fact that the rule of law prevails. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) is specially quoted by human rights activists as a draconian provision to render impunity and immunity to the SF.
The situation has to be understood in the right perspective. The state of Jammu and Kashmir has been subjected to a proxy war sponsored by Pakistan over last twenty five years. Both Pakistan and the Separatists ensure that a certain threshold of terror activity, violence and street turbulence/protests continue at all times, especially in the Valley. Coupled with a well-conceived psychological plan it ensures a restive local populace with a popular angst against India and its agencies, especially the SF. The broad strategy is to continue this and exasperate India, pin it down internationally and ultimately force it to compromise. Whenever positive perceptions are developed with regards to India there are redoubled efforts to force deterioration of the situation.
Handwara must be seen in the light of the above explanation. Extrapolating these, certain analyses emerge. First, the rise of New Terrorism in South Kashmir having a youth base is not under total control of Pakistan or the Separatists, making them irrelevant in the Kashmir landscape. The Separatists felt marginalised with their bandh calls going unheeded; turning to the North was a natural response and Handwara forms a fulcrum of activity there. People with little knowledge express surprise and speak of Handwara being peaceful and especially after terror activity is under control. This hardly syncs with the history of turbulence there and the high degree of terrorist activity in the Hafruda and Rajwar forests nearby.
Secondly, Governor’s rule in place for over three months meant that the actions by SF, instigated and manipulated would, not be under political scrutiny. The cycle of protests would not get louder. The moment was ripe as soon as the BJP-PDP second alliance was announced. Before the government could settle, a trigger in the North would help in putting the pressure. The Handwara trigger was an ideal conspiracy to test the waters and embarrass the new government which has the Centre’s full backing.
Thirdly, although Pathankot may have upset the applecart of India-Pakistan Peace Process there are enough indicators to perceive the inevitability of revival after a short cooling off period. Prospects of future peace mean the Separatists losing relevance. To recapture the lost space only possible strategy was to instigate the restive population through triggers already fed on the adrenaline of daily negativism by the Kashmir media.
Kashmir’s security landscape has witnessed dynamic curves on the graph of normalcy, indicating a low immediately after a period of near normalcy. With the cycle of stability and turbulence, it is not difficult to identify or set up a trigger. The security bunkers constructed during the heyday of high militancyare perceived as symbols of SF presence in their daily lives. However, these are also essential to allow control of movement, early response and intelligence gathering. The Handwara bunker was selected as the potential trigger. Creating a story out of the existing narrative and spreading it through connectors on social media can ensure a flash mob in seconds. Rumor mongering on a sensitive issue such as allegations of molestation provide the energy and once it starts there is no problem in spreading it.
The Separatists tested the waters at Handwara, relying on angst of the public and the ability to spread the fire through Friday sermons, social media and the Separatist networks. The latter are prolific networks with over ground workers (OGWs) working on perception of the public. The common narrative which is employed is ‘zulm’ or atrocities of the SF. Contrived stories are put out on cable TV networks, efforts are made at drawing schism between the State Government and the Army and between the Police and the Army. The Army is the common factor always because of its ability to comprehensively address situations and outsmart the Separatist leadership. In 2010 Geelani attempted to take the agitation in the streets to the next level by threatening to target Army camps. The Army which then too remained outside the scope of response in the urban areas conveyed its intent not to take the issue lightly. Eventually the Separatists did not do anything sillier than what they had already done. This time, in 2016, the psychological warfare is high with rumors which are rife. The JK Police and Army’s integration is being focused on especially after the recent incidents of alleged high handedness at NIT Srinagar by the JK Police.
That brings us to the issue of countering all that has been described above. Since the Separatists employ mind games, street action and psychological warfare to negate the SF advantage it is imperative to challenge them in all these domains and move outside the domain of only violence which is associated with counter terrorist operations. It is not the job of the SF to do this nor do they have the fullest capability. This falls under the purview of perception management and credible public information to offset the Separatist propaganda which the locals are forced to consume. There is a need for professional handling of public information to offset Pakistani and Separatist propaganda to which the population is subjected every day. This is an area long recommended but seldom acted upon and is the need of the hour in view of the proliferating social media which is exploited by detractors to keep opinion in J&K against India.
Among other things the more important ways of countering the intent of the Separatists to spreading mayhem on the streets and forcing misguided youth to carry out anti national acts, is to ensure that the State Government and Army/SF remain on the same page. Many an attempt will be made to drive a wedge. The Army has the measure of the security situation but must be kept away from mob control. Where its garrisons are in the middle of towns extra care must be taken to prevent contact. If Separatists are emboldened to attempt targeting the camps the political leadership has to act against them and the Police must be in sufficient numbers. In no way can the Indian Army be made to defend its camps against mobs because that will lead to mayhem of the type the Separatists desire. This is where Perception Management efforts will have to be directed at parents of youth in the forefront. The clergy must be contacted and its involvement too activated. Rabble rousing during Friday sermons must stop and Kashmir be allowed to return to normal for the upcoming tourist season and the Sri Amarnathji Yatra coming up in the next six to seven weeks
It needs to be made very clear that neither the nation nor the world is willing to accept violence as a means to resolve conflict. India is a nation with immense patience and it will respond to violence with minimal of everything. However, to force India to decisions and change of status through violence beyond a threshold may not always invite minimalism as a response. This needs to be brought home starkly to those looking for change of status or hoping for success in their mission through the use of violence. India knows how to defend its interests outside its territory and within.
(The writer is a former GOC of the Strategic Srinagar based 15 corps has commanded his Unit at the Northern Siachen Glacier)
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