Analysis: The Upper House Hiccup
Intor: The Narendra Modi government has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha to fulfill its promises, but is short of numbers in the Rajya Sabha
At present Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has 42 MPs in a house of 234, and 61 along with its NDA partners. Until the next biennial elections not before early 2016, the numbers are unlikely to fall in the favour of BJP. Nearly a third of Rajya Sabha's 235 MPs (10 more are nominated by the President) are elected in biennial elections, the last of which took place earlier this year.
The BJP won a majority of 282 seats on its own in the 543-elected member Lower House – the Lok Sabha, and with pre-poll NDA alliance jigged up the numbers to 336, and enjoys a comfortable position in the Lower House. But being in minority in RS, many believe is a handicap that could cause the Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) much heartburn in getting key legislations enacted. Some political observers have mooted the idea of the NDA government pushing for holding joint session of Parliament to get constitutional amendment bills enacted, but many in the RS secretariat believe it is unrealistic.
Reading the writing on the wall, the Congress did not project its tall leader and scion of Nehru-Gandhi family, Rahul Gandhi to lead the party in the Lower House. To allow unanimous election of the BJP candidate Sumitra Mahajan as a Speaker of the Lok Sabha then was a compulsion for the Opposition parties.
However, three regional parties – The AIADMK, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Trinamool Congress (TMC) are in consultations amongst themselves to form a bloc in the Lok Sabha and deny the Congress the Opposition space. The three parties would total up to 91 seats – AIADMK with 37 seats, BJD with 20 seats and Trinamool Congress with 34 seats. There is a possibility as these three parties had earlier thought of forming a non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front. The Trinamool Congress had even insisted on forming a front minus the Left parties.
The Tamilnadu Chief Minister and AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa and the Odisha Chief Minister and BJD chief Naveen Patnaik had met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and conveyed that their parties would play the role of “Constructive Opposition” and would lend issue-based support to the government. But, the West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chief, Mamata Banerjee has, however, not yet opened her cards or met the prime minister.
Even if the TMC does not go along with AIADMK and BJD, the tally of these two parties will be 57- above the 44 figure of the Congress.
However, after the Lok Sabha, the BJP-led NDA coalition needs to play the game of arithmetic in the Upper House – Rajya Sabha. In the 245-member Rajya Sabha, BJP alone has strength of 42 and, alongwith its allies, TDP, Shiv Sena, Sikkim Democratic Front, Shiromani Akali Dal, Republican Party of India, Nagaland Peoples’Front and Mizo National Front the tally totals up to 61.
The Congress has 67 seats in Rajya Sabha and with its allies Bodoland Peoples’ Front, BSP, National Conference, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Kerala Congress, Nationalist Congress Party, RJD and Samajwadi Party tally rises to 101. The Janata Dal (U) with its 9 members is expected to go with the Congress in return for the support to its government in Bihar.
The NDA government with its assured strength of 61 will need to now scout for support from AIADMK and BJD which have already declared to lend issue-based support. These two parties have a combined strength of 14 in Rajya Sabha. The TMC has 12 seats in Rajya Sabha. The NDA government may have to seek support from DMK, Indian National Lok Dal, Telangana Rashtra Samithi and Independents whose strength totals up to 16. There are 10 nominated members and the government will have to seek support from some of them.
Whatever the strategy, BJP is faced with a challenge in the Rajya Sabha – at least until the first half of 2016. Not only would NDA need such regional parties as AIADMK, Trinamool and BJD, it would also need the help of non-UPA parties like BSP, Janata Dal (U), SP and Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam (DMK).
-ASHOK B SHARMA
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