MV Kamath
SO at last, India has woken up. It has, on the face of it, hardened its stand against Pakistan. Not only has the Army Chief Gen. Bikram Singh warned Pakistan that India can retaliate at “a place and time of our choosing”, he has told his commanders to be “aggressive in the face of firing”. Singh, however, has discounted the possibility of the skirmish leading to a full-fledged war and has also discounted the possibility of Pakistan resorting to nuclear warfare saying that it has no relation to the local conflict.
Besides the Army Commander, the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh as he should, has also warned Pakistan that it cannot be “business as usual” in the aftermath of the beheading of an Indian soldier. Not much of a threat, but maybe Dr Singh does not want to sound too aggressive and is only waiting for further development before a more definitive step can be announced. What are the likely developments? There are media reports that 2,500 Pakistani terrorists are waiting at the LoC to cross into India, to disturb the peace in Jammu & Kashmir. That likelihood cannot be ignored. What if they do, with Pakistani’s connivance, subtly or openly?
The general impression one gets from reading the media is that war is not an option. But how long are we to take Pakistan’s continuing encroachment on Indian soil? What if they do not return the decapitated head of the Indian soldier we have asked for? Taking the issue to the United Nations is no option. It would be sheer madness. If attempted. India will be neatly entrapped, considering the new friendly approach towards Pakistan that the US is now following. We can’t expect Washington to be helpful when, presently, it has decided to give a hefty $3 billion as aid to its subaltern ally. We have to play the game in a way that benefits us.
Meanwhile, the arrogance of Pakistan should not be under-estimated. Our peace-mongers do not apparently understand the Pakistani mind-set. The Army hates India – there can be no two options about it. The way its spokespersons present its case, what starts as a skirmish may end in nuclear bombardment – and never mind if India can level down its neighbour into dust. India would inevitably suffer a lot.
Three points need to be remembered. One, Pakistan Army is untrustworthy. Over the years it has broken every promise it has made to India. Two, the hatred that Pakistan has against India has no end. And who says that? Irfan Husain, a proper Pakistani who once served in the Pakistan Civil Service. In his book: Fatal Faultlines: Pakistan, Islam and The West he says he once asked a Pakistani Commanding Officer whether it was wise for Pakistan to take on the Indian Army. Writes Husain: “I will never forget his reply: in all seriousness he said that one Muslim was equal to five Hindu soliders and this would redress the military imbalance between the two countries.” And this after Pakistan had lost four wars and, on one occasion, India had taken over 70,000 Pakistani soldiers as prisoners-of-war. Pakistan still lives in the age of Ghazni Mohammad. And what Pakistan Army employs are not soldiers, but barbarians. Against this background it would be foolish to expect Pakistan to come to civilised terms with India. One can’t even accept any willingness on the part of Pakistan to come to a temporary settlement. For Pakistan it can only be temporary, to be broken when it suits it. Three, the argument as always is that the ‘core’ problem is Kashmir and unless it is resolved to Pakistan’s satisfaction, it will have the right to stir rebellion in the Valley. Islamabad must be firmly told that Kashmir is not negotiable and any effort to disturb the peace and tranquility of the State will be met firmly and uncompromisingly.
Importantly, the United States, in particular, must be told that its continued aid to Pakistan is unacceptable and will be taken as being highly offensive. When President Eisenhower was once told, so his reply was that American arms and equipment provided to Pakistan was not meant to be used against India to which VK Krishna Menon’s riposte was that arms had yet to be manufactured that were functional in only one direction.
Pakistan has three options: One, it can ignore India’s feelings, push jihadis into Kashmir and as usual proclaim that it is in no way involved in it. Inevitable there will be killings and Pakistan will lay the blame on India. Two, the US may, just may, tell Pakistan to behave itself and some behind-the-scene diplomacy may get to work to prevent a major conflict. Three, a political solution can still bring normalcy but what kind of solution can that be? One suggestion is the formation of a South Asian Confederation, in which India, Pakistan and Jammu & Kashmir can be equal partners. The latter would then belong neither to India nor to Pakistan nor would it be “free”, since it would be part of the Confederation. The idea may be dismissed as too far-fetched and utopian, but then can one think of any other solution, apart from a full-time war in which Pakistan is totally destroyed and India will simultaneously pay a very heavy price?
One thing should be clear: Hatred will take Pakistan nowhere. It will only eat into its own vitals. It will have to be permanently subservient to a foreign power, be it the United States or China. Pakistan is already seen to be on its last legs. It is practically accepted as a failed state and its sliding down into the drain is a matter of a few months.
A South Asian Confederation will go a long way to bring not just peace but prosperity to the region and if India and Pakistan can come together, one may expect Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar not to speak about Nepal and Afghanistan to join the Union. And what India confers on Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan can confer on Baluchistan, in a face-saving device. But all this calls for some hard thinking. Is Pakistan ready for it? For that matter, is India?
The European Union can serve as a model to both India and Pakistan. for both it can be win-win situation. If a South Asian Confederation or Union comes about, it can become the most powerful unit in the world, and the envy of the United Nations. But then who is to take the initiative? Surely, not Dr Manmohan Singh. Too bad we don’t have another Atal Behari Vajpayee in politics today. So it will be bloodshed and more bloodshed in the months and years to come.
