Elections in Uttarakhand
By Shivaji Sarkar
Uttarakhand like its people is almost an open card. It may be looking for simple solutions. Options in the state are limited. The two major players as in the previous elections would be BJP and Congress. In some of the terai areas Bahujan Samaj Party may change some dynamics of the Samajwadi Party and the Congress.
The BJP has emerged stronger in the race with the change in leadership. The party has been able to infuse confidence in its rank and file as BC Khanduri took over the reins as Chief Minister of the state. The complaint against him that he is a tough person, the one reason he was once replaced, has come to his aid.
The party cadre has realised as also the people of the state that his toughness is strength for the better functioning of the government and progress of the state. Khanduri’s image as an honest leader has also helped the party. The cadre is enthused and has actively come out to mobilise the people.
The party has some edge over its largest rival, Congress. But that is not the reason for it to take it all for granted. It has denied tickets to 12 sitting MLAs. It is causing some ripple. At least one of them, Jaspal Rana, has been lapped up by the Congress and given ticket.
It is not that Congress is not facing problem. It has also denied tickets to some MLAs. It is posing problem for the party. Two aspirants –Renu Adhikari and Barkha Rani – who were denied tickets have joined the BJP.
This does not mean that it is a cakewalk for the BJP. The party has gone through a few tribulations because of the functioning of the previous Chief Minister Ramesh Chandra Pokhriyal ‘Nishank’.
Another aspect that it needs to guard is the close and direct contest between the BJP and Congress in most of the 70 constituencies particularly in the hills of Garhwal and Kumaon. In the last assembly elections too, in many constituencies margins were not very large. In the 2009 parliamentary elections, the party did not fare well. These concerns would remain.
This does not mean Congress has chances to do well or repeat 2009. There are different groups in the party and they are not sailing in the same boat. Union Minister of State Harish Rawat is eyeing for the Chief Minister’s chair. His rivals in the party are keen on upsetting his applecart.
A message in the Congress fold is of dipping confidence. Party’s national president did not visit the state twice in a short span. While people waited for her for hours at public meetings, she simply cancelled her visit – once on the pretext of fog and the other for health reasons.
No third visit has so far been scheduled. State party leaders are circumspect in inviting her. They have lost the confidence and do not want to lose face again.
There is a subtle feeling within the party that Sonia Gandhi cancelled the visit to the state on some internal assessment of the poll scenario. Whatever might have been her reasoning, it has caused jitters in the party ranks. Whether it would have some impact on the party’s poll prospects is too early to say.
But the events certainly have acted as mood booster for the BJP.
The elections in the Terai region would have more players. The two parties of UP – BSP and SP – have many areas of influence. The caste and religious groups’ composition is also very different. Unlike in the hills where the voters are mostly from the higher Brahmin and Rajput or Thakur castes, Terai has Sikhs, Muslims, scheduled castes and tribes and even some migrants from Bangladesh.
Political scenario is more complex. In the last elections, BSP and SP had won quite a few seats. They are likely to repeat it. There is a feeling that BSP might increase its influence and bag more seats. The rise of the BSP, it is largely believed, would affect the SP and to some extent Congress. The BSP shares apart from Dalits the support of social groups over which SP and Congress also has influence.
These are wide conjectures. But in some cases it might hurt the BJP as well. All political parties are circumspect about the movement of the “elephant”.
The state is an example of the demise of a regional party – Uttarakhand Kranti Dal. The UKD had merged with the BJP after the last assembly elections. Two of its MLAs have been given ticket by BJP.
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