Voter'sverdict on the 2009 parliamentary elections will be known by the time this write-up reaches your hands. Those who have followed the campaign closely are unanimous that the electorate will return a split verdict. Major parties and alliances have now shed their pretensions and concede that no pre-poll alliance, not to talk of any single party, would get a clear majority in the 15th Lok Sabha. In such a situation, President Pratibha Patil will have a crucial role to play. Political leaders and observers are keeping their fingers crossed as no one knows who would get the first opportunity to form a government.
Will it be the leader of the single largest party or that of a pre-poll alliance? Or would she opt for a dark horse? Her predecessors had their jobs cut-out for them till 1984 as the era of coalition governments had not set in. Their job was to invite the leader of the majority party to form the Government. The era of hung Parliaments began in 1989 that made Presidents? task tough and crucial. Successive heads of state went by the established norms and precedents, though there were occasions when dubious methods were adopted to select a person to be appointed Prime Minister and then asked to prove his majority in the House by a pre-determined date. It would be interesting to have a look at recent history. Although Congress emerged as the single largest party in the 9th Lok Sabha, Rajiv Gandhi declined the invitation to form the Government for he recognised that the verdict was against him and that there was no possibility of Congress conjuring up a majority. In turn, President R Venkataraman invited VP Singh, leader of the second largest party, to form the Government after he produced letters of support from the BJP and Left parties. The minority VP Singh Government collapsed within a year after the BJP withdrew support. Chandra Shekhar that formed another minority government with the outside support of the Congress too lasted only a few months.
In 1991 parliamentary polls, the Congress emerged as the single largest party but was short of a majority. President Venkataraman rightly invited the leader of the Congress parliamentary party, to form the Government. A minority-Government led by P V Narasimha Rao survived in office for full five years albeit through fraudulent means like ?purchasing? MPs to defeat a no-confidence motion. Similarly in 1996, President S D Sharma, a Congressman all his life, rose above party considerations and in consultation with eminent jurists and constitutional experts, asked the leader of the single largest party ? BJP ? to form a government, though it was no where near majority in the 10th Lok Sabha. A B Vajpayee-led Government that failed to secure support from other parties collapsed and was followed by two minority governments supported from outside by the Congress. In the 12th Lok Sabha, BJP emerged as the single largest party with 184 seats but was still short of a majority. Again, the President followed the precedent and invited Vajpayee to form a Government and prove his majority on the floor of the House. A year later, it was defeated in a confidence vote but again emerged as the single largest party and NDA the single largest pre-poll alliance in the elections held in 1999 and was invited to form a Government. The situation was reversed in 2004 when the Congress emerged as the single largest party and was given the first opportunity to form the Government with the help of post-poll allies and outside support from the Left parties and later from the SP.
What will Pratibha Patil do in the post-May 16 scenario? Will she give the first opportunity to the leader of the single largest party or to the leader of the largest pre-poll alliance? Given the situation on the ground, every alliance will have to look for new allies. It is a justifiable exercise as political vacuum and back to back parliamentary elections are unacceptable. Realignment of political forces is already in the offing with TRS leaving the ?third front? to join NDA and Janata (S) drifting towards the Congress.
However, it is imperative that President Patil act with alacrity to discourage horse-trading and other unethical measures like promises of manipulating CBI and other government agencies to bail out tainted leaders of regional outfits and handing down unconstitutional and immoral assurances of dismissing State governments to oblige their rivals. Constitutional experts wanted the President to take the nation into confidence about the course of action she would take in the extremely fluid situation. She didn'toblige and maintained a studied silence, at least till the writing of this column.
Under the circumstances, any course of action she takes that may be perceived to put at an advantage the party which she had been associated with for long may attract severe criticism from commentators thereby undermining the dignity of the high office she occupies.
Subash C Kashyap, a distinguished constitutional expert, author of several books on parliamentary procedures and a former Secretary General of the Lok Sabha, says that in order to avoid unsavoury controversies the best course for Smt Patil is to send a message to the Lok Sabha under Article 86 (2) asking it to elect a leader who would then be appointed as Prime Minister. What commends this course of action is that a similar recommendation was made by the National Commission on Constitution set up by the Vajpayee Government in 2002.
Additionally, this procedure would obliterate the need to ask the Prime Minister to seek a vote of confidence from the House within a stipulated period. Although this innovation may not be acceptable to all the parties, it would certainly go a long way to avoid unsavoury controversies and Patil would emerge as a non-partisan head of state. Incidentally, in Nepal that is passing through a constitutional crisis, the President of the Republic has asked the Constitution Assembly that doubles for legislature to elect a leader for appointment as PM after political parties failed to arrive at a consensus to form a government.
If the head of the state is unwilling to follow this uncharted course, she would do well to follow the well established tradition followed by her predecessors to invite the leader of the single largest party to try his/her hand at government formation. Failing which, she can ask the second largest party to make an attempt. Alternatively, the single largest pre-poll alliance and the second largest pre-poll alliance may be given the opportunity one after the other. If all this fail, the President may invite the leader of the largest post-poll alliance followed by the second largest post-poll alliance to attempt to form a government. The President has a constitutional obligation to try and install a viable government acceptable to the House. If nothing works, the President should facilitate the formation of a national government by persuading major parties to fall in line in the national interest.
A hung Parliament?that is on the cards?is both a challenge and opportunity for President Pratibha Patil. She can disprove her detractors by exercising her discretionary powers in a transparent and impartial manner. This would strengthen public faith in democracy and preserve the pristine glory and dignity of the Presidency.
