There is a demographic invasion in Assam and demographic alteration in Keralam. In both States, there is growing dominance of Muslim population. The situation has come at the stage when there was a mobilised demand of separate Muslim districts in Keralam and at least 12 districts in Assam where Hindus have already become minority. In Assam, the Miya population has reached at approx 40 per cent and in Keralam. Their numbers as per 2011 census data are 27 per cent. Even though Keralam was exposed much more to Arabs, Muslims in Kerala were 17 per cent in 1951 and now they are 27 per cent of total population. Bangladeshi Muslim migrants settled strategically in different parts of Assam, encroached lands and resources, and now became a force to defeat any candidate talking in interest of Assamese language and culture in at least 21 Assembly seats. Therefore, in these two States, this year’s election is going to be historic in the sense of raising voice or awareness about demographic invasion or alteration, it will be an approval of this narrative in Assam and getting support of this concern in Keralam.
Keralam Chief Minister, Pinarayi Vijayan, is now saying that Congress is the B team of BJP and Rahul Gandhi is saying the same against LDF, he labelled LDF as the B team of BJP. So, clearly at the perception level, BJP is only a team in Keralam and as per recent trends damaging both LDF and UDF in such a way, no political expert now is in a position to predict safely what is going to happen in the final result. There is a heavy anti-incumbency against LDF based on unemployment and corruption but at the same time, Congress which is leading the UDF grappling with contradiction and factionalism. The voters who have been divided for long time between LDF and UDF are now under confusion, they can’t give a third term to the same person or party and at the same time, they can’t imagine even Congress can run a successful Government when its leadership in the State and Centre is at most ever crisis level. This factor is now going to be beneficial for BJP.
In the local body election of 2025, the vote share of UDF was 43 per cent, LDF was at 40 per cent and BJP surprised many because it had secured 16 per cent vote share including winning the seats in Thiruvananthapuram. BJP-led NDA won 50 of 101 wards and came into power in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, ending decades-long LDF rule. These all are signalling the decline of LDF based on 10 years long anti-incumbency. In this situation, it is now great opportunity for BJP or NDA not only focusing on some selected seats like Thrissur, Palakkad and Nemom but it may look forward beyond Central Keralam and try utmost in Southern or Thiruvananthapuram region where there is triangular fights at most of the seats.
There has been a good Christian outreach by PM that can benefit the BJP in central Keralam, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam. Finally, this election in Keralam is going to be historical in the sense that BJP led NDA will increase tally in seats and vote share based on the factors like people want change, anti-incumbency increased and leadership missing in UDF. The defining moment of Keralam elections 2026 will be the BJP outreach to the Christian community.
In Assam, there are 126 Assembly seats covering major six regions, Central Assam, Upper Assam, Lower Assam, North Assam, Barak Valley and Hill Districts. Out of all these regions, Congress has been attaching major values to Upper Assam (35 Seats) because of the Gogoi family Ahom relation to the majority Ahom population. However, any community belonging to Hindu cannot tolerate any leader having links with Pakistan or surrendering the Indian passport of sons, officially substantiated. For a State which prides on Assamese language and culture, this has been too hard to digest and it has tarnished the son-of-soil image of the Congress vanguard. Under these factual allegations, Congress top leader, Gaurav Gogoi is fully exposed. Moreover, owing to strategic defections, there is no leadership in Congress to challenge BJP. Bhupen Kumar Borah, a former President of Assam Pradesh Congress Committee and Nagaon MP, Pradyut Bordoloi joining BJP are new testament of deserting Congress. Consequently, the 2026 Assembly election seems seeking the approval of people for another five-year term for the Himanta Biswa Sarma led BJP in Assam.
BJP has some strategic benefits heading into this election. First and foremost, is the charismatic leadership of CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. The welfare schemes he has rolled out targeting different demographic cohorts is a masterstroke. Second, the BJP’s main plank in Assam, often termed “Jati-Mati-Bheti” (Community, Land and Base/Homeland), centers on protecting the identity and rights of indigenous Assamese people against illegal immigration and ensuring land security. Third, delimitation in 2023 has somewhat neutralised the effects of demographic invasion, at least in terms of Assembly constituencies, it has helped rationalising the voters’ numbers balancing based on the communities. Many Muslim dominant constituencies have now become balanced ones where both the communities can have almost equal sharing or voice in the electoral course.
With the help of Central Govt and “Look Act” policy towards North-East, Assam BJP Govt has achieved good strides in top infrastructural development that has attracted the youth and specially appealing to those who have been witnessing only protests, curfew and bad law and order. Now in every part, the aspirations for development have reached a high level and people are more engaged talking about new big projects including high level projects like the Tata semi-conductor project in Jagiroad.
On the cultural pride level, people are connected well with the narratives of BJP State Govt because the Govt has evicted thousand hectares of land encroached under the area of Srimanta Sankardev temple and a new resurgence of evicted land belonging to indigenous people in forest areas. Himanta Biswa Sarma Govt has also successfully addressed the tea tribes’ issues giving them land pattas and resolved many issues of those deprived people who have not been given drinking water, hospital and local roads in many areas. No protest, no strike, no fear and cultural pride have become the strong narratives of the State Govt with which all voters are now feeling connected.
However, Congress has more than 90 per cent support of Muslims and after so many hurdles, it is now successful to make an alliance of “Asom Sonmilito Morcha” (ASM) to counter BJP led NDA. AIDUF of Badruddin Ajmal is not a past of ASM but in contrast to media perceptions, still he will be a spoiler for Congress in many seats. AIDUF will divide the votes of Muslims and tactically it has given tickets to Hindu leaders that will again damage anti-BJP Hindu votes of Congress.
