Kerala local polls jolt CPI(M) as Hindu shift to BJP signals Bengal-style collapse of the Left’s political fortress

The results of the local body elections in Kerala have sent shockwaves through the state’s political establishment. The CPI(M), which has long projected itself as the largest and most disciplined political party in Kerala, has suffered a serious and symbolic setback. The Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the CPI(M), has not only lost seats and control in key local bodies but has also lost something far more damaging, its traditional social and electoral base.

For the first time in decades, the cracks within the Left’s carefully constructed coalition of voters have become impossible to hide. A significant portion of Hindu voters, once the backbone of the Left in Kerala, has decisively shifted toward the BJP. At the same time, Muslim votes have consolidated away from the Left and largely favoured the Congress-Muslim league led United Democratic Front (UDF). What is emerging is a clear pattern of political realignment, one that bears uncomfortable similarities to the collapse of the Left in West Bengal.

The erosion of the left’s Hindu base

The most striking feature of the election outcome is the large-scale movement of Hindu votes away from the LDF. For decades, the CPI(M) relied on Hindu support, especially among lower and middle classes, while attempting to balance minority appeasement through ideological ambiguity. That balancing act has now failed. Neutral Hindu voters, who once believed the Left stood for fairness, governance, and social justice, increasingly view the LDF government as ideologically biased, culturally hostile, and politically arrogant. More damaging was the widespread belief that the Left government repeatedly surrendered to pressure from conservative Islamic religious organisations like ‘Samastha’ on matters such as school timing changes, textbook revisions, gender-neutral policies, the promotion of Zumba dance in schools, and repeated controversies surrounding Hijab in schools. The perception that groups such as Samastha exercised undue influence over policy decisions weakened the Left’s claim of secular neutrality.

Adding fuel to the fire was the behaviour of Left-aligned cultural figures and activists during the Gaza conflict. Open or indirect justification of Hamas by prominent “leftist intellectuals” created deep resentment. The CPI(M)’s moral posturing collapsed entirely when even the Chief Minister of Kerala failed to clearly label Hamas as a terrorist organisation. This silence was not interpreted as diplomacy or nuance, it was seen as cowardice and appeasement. For a party that once claimed moral superiority, the refusal to call out Islamist extremism exposed ideological hypocrisy. Far from strengthening minority support, this posture further alienated Hindu voters and reinforced the perception that the Left had abandoned balance for selective outrage.

Sabarimala a wound that never healed

If one issue permanently damaged the Left’s relationship with Hindu society, it was Sabarimala. The manner in which the LDF government implemented the Supreme Court verdict on women’s entry was seen not as lawful compliance, but as ideological provocation.

Shortcuts, secrecy, and theatrics turned a sensitive constitutional issue into a cultural flashpoint. The attempt to project symbolic compliance by escorting disguised activists into the temple only deepened public anger. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections already demonstrated the political consequences of this approach. The current local body elections show that the wound has not healed, it has only deepened. This time, the controversy resurfaced with renewed intensity due to allegations surrounding the Devaswom Board. The charge that sacred Dwarapalaka sculptures donated in 1999 were illegally removed for gold plating, through benami arrangements, shook devotees across Kerala. Arrests of prominent Devaswom officials, including figures closely associated with the CPI(M), added credibility to public suspicion. When questioned on television debates about how permissions were granted in violation of Devaswom manuals and High Court orders, the Left had no answers. Posters congratulating the government for “leaving the idol behind at Sabarimala” struck a chord precisely because they reflected genuine public anger.

BJP, the real long-term gainer ; Dual anti-government sentiment lifts the UDF

The UDF’s performance in this election was not exceptional in terms of organisation or innovation. Yet it emerged as a major beneficiary. This was not because the Congress suddenly rediscovered political brilliance, but because of a powerful dual anti-government sentiment. First, there is widespread anger against the Pinarayi Vijayan government itself, over allegations of corruption, nepotism, and administrative arrogance. Second, there is intense resentment toward Left-ruled local bodies, which increasingly came to symbolise inefficiency, corruption, and unresponsive governance. From Thiruvananthapuram to Kochi to Kozhikode, Left-controlled corporations faced unprecedented public backlash. In Kozhikode, a city the CPI(M) dominated for over four decades, even basic civic amenities were missing in wards repeatedly won by the party. The defeat of senior leaders and mayoral candidates exposed the hollowness of the Left’s grassroots claims. In Thiruvananthapuram, the final phase of the Arya Rajendran mayoralty was widely viewed as arrogant and disconnected. In Kozhikode, the previous administration was openly described as the most corrupt in the corporation’s history. The results reflect a collapse of public trust.

While the UDF benefited from anti-incumbency, the BJP emerged as the real long-term gainer. BJP victories in traditional CPM and UDF strongholds are politically significant far beyond their numerical value. In Kozhikode’s Pottammal ward, where the CPM boasted it could win regardless of candidate quality, the BJP won decisively by highlighting the absence of basic facilities despite decades of Left rule. The BJP also captured the ward of Congress mayoral candidate P.M. Niyas and broke UDF monopolies in areas like Chalappuram. These victories underline a clear trend: Hindu voters are increasingly viewing the BJP as the only credible alternative capable of challenging Left dominance and cultural overreach.

The Bengal model: Is Kerala heading the same way?

The most disturbing parallel for the CPI(M) lies in West Bengal. Once a monolithic Left bastion ruled for 34 uninterrupted years, Bengal witnessed the near-total collapse of the CPM after the rise of the Trinamool Congress. What followed was even more remarkable, the mass migration of CPM cadres to the BJP. Entire party villages, committees, and families switched allegiance. CPM offices were repainted saffron. Journalists described it as one of the most extraordinary political transformations in modern history. Today, the BJP stands as the principal opposition in Bengal, with a cadre base largely drawn from former CPM workers.

The Kerala local body election results suggest that a similar realignment may be underway. The CPI(M) is losing its Hindu base. Minority votes are consolidating elsewhere. The BJP is steadily expanding, not merely through leadership defections, but through voter trust.T he Left’s decline across India has closely mirrored the BJP’s rise. Kerala, long projected as the final Left fortress, is no longer immune to this national trend. These elections are not just a setback, they are indications. If the CPI(M) continues down the path of ideological arrogance, selective secularism, and administrative high-handedness, it may soon face the same fate it suffered in Bengal. The local body elections may well be remembered as the moment Kerala’s political landscape began to fundamentally change.