India is set to witness a historic jump in the production of major kharif crops, with foodgrain output estimated to cross 173.33 million tonnes, marking a substantial increase of 3.87 million tonnes over the previous year. The figures, released on November 26 by Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, reflect a season of strong agricultural performance aided by favourable monsoon patterns across large parts of the country.
Presenting the first advance estimates of kharif production, Chouhan said the robust output demonstrates resilience in the agriculture sector even as some pockets battled excessive rainfall. He emphasised that overall, the monsoon has benefitted most agricultural regions, resulting in healthy crop growth and yields across diverse crop categories.
At the forefront of this year’s surge are rice and maize, two essential staples that anchor India’s kharif basket. Rice production is projected to hit 124.5 million tonnes, an increase of 1.73 million tonnes compared to last year, with the rise attributed to improved planting, better rainfall distribution, and government schemes promoting high-yielding and climate-resilient rice varieties.
The maize crop has also witnessed an exceptional surge, with output estimated at 28.3 million tonnes, marking a massive jump of 3.4 million tonnes from the previous season. This impressive rise is linked to stronger demand from the poultry and ethanol industries, advancements in hybrid seed technology, and an expanded acreage covered by improved varieties, ensuring better yields despite climatic challenges.
The kharif season also brought positive momentum for coarse cereals and pulses, which form the backbone of India’s nutritional and climate-resilient agriculture. The Agriculture Ministry projected total coarse cereals output to reach 41.4 million tonnes, covering key crops such as jowar, bajra, ragi and maize. The continued policy push for promoting nutri-cereals, coupled with rising consumer demand, has strengthened this segment’s performance.
Pulses, essential for India’s dietary and nutritional requirements, are expected to register a total output of 7.4 million tonnes. This includes an estimated 3.59 million tonnes of tur (arhar), 1.2 million tonnes of urad and 1.72 million tonnes of moong. Despite regional fluctuations due to excess rains in parts of central and southern India, the ministry expressed confidence in the overall positive trend for pulses production this year.
Oilseed crops, critical to India’s edible oil economy have also registered strong performance during the kharif season. The total oilseed production is estimated at 27.56 million tonnes. Soybean, a dominant kharif oilseed, is expected to reach 14.26 million tonnes, reflecting stable acreage supported by improved crop management practices. Groundnut production has climbed to 11 million tonnes, marking an increase of 0.68 million tonnes compared to last year.
States such as Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka reported strong groundnut yields aided by timely and well-distributed monsoon rainfall. The rise in oilseed production is likely to ease India’s dependency on edible oil imports and enhance domestic availability, bringing potential benefits to both farmers and consumers.
Among non-food crops, sugarcane stands out prominently with an estimated production of 475.6 million tonnes, an increase of 21 million tonnes from the previous year. This comes at a time when India’s sugar industry is undergoing a structural shift toward ethanol blending as part of the government’s broader energy diversification policy. Cotton production, another major non-food crop, is pegged at 29.2 million bales, each weighing 170 kilograms.
Favourable weather in major cotton-growing regions such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Telangana has supported this rise. Additionally, Patson and Mesta together are estimated to reach 8.3 million bales, signalling sustained cultivation even as acreage has been gradually declining nationwide.
The Agriculture Ministry noted that all estimates presented have been derived using a combination of past yield trends, real-time ground-level observations, crop condition reports from states, meteorological inputs, and preliminary yield assessments.
These First Advance Estimates serve as early indicators, and final figures will be revised after detailed crop-cutting experiments, which provide more precise yield measurements. Officials acknowledged that while some regions faced localised crop damage due to excessive rainfall, the broader agricultural belt benefitted substantially from a normal monsoon cycle that enabled robust planting and favourable crop development across major producing zones.
Overall, the record kharif estimates signal a promising agricultural year for India, with wide-ranging implications for food inflation, farmer incomes, rural employment and national food security. A robust kharif season typically stabilises commodity markets, eases pressure on food prices, and uplifts rural demand, thereby contributing positively to the broader economy.
With agricultural reforms, technological interventions, improved seed varieties, and supportive monsoon behaviour aligning effectively this season, India’s kharif sector appears poised for a year of unprecedented growth, reinforcing its position as a global agricultural powerhouse.
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