Uttar Pradesh is set to continue its strong performance in sugar production despite a slight reduction in sugarcane acreage this year. According to early estimates released by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), Uttar Pradesh’s sugar output is projected to rise by nearly 2 per cent in the 2025-26 crushing season, reaching around 103 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) compared to 101 LMT produced last year.
The steady rise, despite a smaller cultivation area, shows the resilience of Uttar Pradesh’s sugar sector and the impact of improved crop management, high-yield varieties, and supportive government policies that are aimed at boosting farmer income and industrial growth.
This forecast shows the sector’s resilience and the effectiveness of sustained government interventions in stabilising both production and farmer income. Uttar Pradesh, which became India’s leading sugar-producing state in 2024-25, is now focused on further strengthening its position through continued policy reforms, the adoption of modern technology, and improved environmental management.
Uttar Pradesh’s sugarcane area has registered a marginal decline from 23.3 lakh hectares in 2024-25 to 22.57 lakh hectares this season. Yet, crop health indicators have significantly improved, thanks to better disease management, the introduction of high-yielding cane varieties, and timely field interventions.
According to ISMA, these measures have helped control red rot and other fungal diseases that often affect cane yield and sucrose content. Field experts also give credit of the success to varietal replacement programmes, that introduced climate-resilient and high-recovery cane types suitable for the region’s diverse agro-climatic zones.
The outcome is a healthier and more uniform crop that can deliver strong yields even with less cultivated area; a clear sign of the advancements made in scientific sugarcane farming across India’s largest sugar-producing region.
The Uttar Pradesh government’s proactive policies have played a crucial role in ensuring the sector’s stability. In a major relief to farmers, Uttar Pradesh recently increased the State Advisory Price (SAP) of sugarcane by Rs 30 per quintal, bringing it to one of the highest in the country. This decision aims to offset cost pressures and incentivise cane cultivation despite competing crop options.
Officials say that this move not only strengthens farmer morale but also injects confidence into mill operations by ensuring a steady supply of raw material. Moreover, government initiatives in irrigation modernisation, digital payment systems for cane dues, and real-time monitoring of procurement have improved transparency and efficiency across the supply chain.
Whereas, the Industry analysts note that such structural reforms have transformed sugarcane farming in Uttar Pradesh into a more income-secure and technology-driven enterprise, reducing the dependency on unpredictable weather patterns.
A key highlight of India’s sugar sector strategy has been the ethanol blending programme, which aims to reduce fossil fuel imports and promote clean energy. Uttar Pradesh remains one of the leading contributors to this initiative.
ISMA estimates that in the upcoming season, about 34 LMT of the state’s sugar will be diverted towards ethanol production, slightly lower than the 35.01 LMT diverted in 2024-25. This redirection aligns with the Centre’s target of 20 per cent ethanol blending by 2025, ensuring both environmental benefits and an additional revenue stream for sugar mills.
Officials and mill owners affirm that ethanol production has emerged as a financial stabiliser, especially in years when sugar prices face global or domestic fluctuations. With improved distillation capacity and policy incentives, Uttar Pradesh’s sugar sector has successfully integrated ethanol as a core part of its business model.
While Uttar Pradesh remains steady, Maharashtra, India’s second-largest sugar producer, is expected to witness a sharp recovery this year. ISMA projects Maharashtra’s production to jump from 93.51 LMT to nearly 130 LMT, aided by favourable monsoon conditions and expanded cane acreage.
This turnaround comes after a weather-affected season that saw significant losses. Maharashtra’s resurgence could intensify competition between the two states, though industry observers believe UP’s strength lies in its consistency rather than short-term volume spikes.
Nationally, India’s total sugar production is forecast to increase by 18.5%, with both Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh contributing the lion’s share of the output. The healthy recovery across states ensures a comfortable national sugar stock, enough to meet domestic demand and support exports when permitted.
Industry sources reveal that sugar recovery in Uttar Pradesh has already improved to around 9.3 per cent, a marginal but significant rise from previous years. This indicates higher juice extraction efficiency and better cane quality. More than 200 sugar mills across the state have already commenced operations, with several others preparing to begin crushing as the season progresses.
Experts give credit for this improvement to better milling infrastructure, automation, and timely maintenance factors that help maximise output while minimising waste. Additionally, the focus on disease-free, high-sucrose sugarcane varieties has further enhanced recovery rates, allowing mills to extract more sugar from each tonne of cane processed.
Despite fluctuations in production patterns, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain stable or slightly soft this season. The combination of higher national output and adequate opening stock has ensured comfortable availability for consumers.
At the same time, the government continues to monitor export policies to balance domestic requirements with global opportunities. Experts say this approach helps farmers earn better incomes while keeping prices stable for consumers, a careful balance made possible through well-coordinated government policies.
Experts believe that Uttar Pradesh’s sugar sector may soon enter a plateau phase in terms of production growth, given the near-saturation of cultivable area and industrial capacity. However, the future lies in sustainability, efficiency, and diversification.
The ongoing ethanol push, value addition through by-products like molasses and bagasse, and eco-friendly farming practices are expected to define the next chapter of growth. As India accelerates its clean energy transition, the sugar industry’s role is set to evolve from being purely agricultural to becoming an integrated energy and resource hub.
With strong policy backing, improved crop resilience, and the unwavering efforts of millions of cane farmers, Uttar Pradesh continues to set an example of how tradition and innovation can coexist, ensuring that its sweetness remains not just in its sugar, but in the livelihoods it sustains.
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