CEA Nageswaran
India’s Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran has projected that the country’s GDP growth will exceed 6.8 percent in the current fiscal year (FY26), underscoring the economy’s resilience and the revival of private investment amid global uncertainty.
Speaking at an economic event in Mumbai on Friday (Nov 7), Nageswaran highlighted that India’s private capital expenditure (capex) remains robust and continues to drive growth alongside steady foreign inflows and policy reforms.
He noted that “the first five months of this fiscal year have already seen net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows significantly higher than the past two years,” reflecting global confidence in India’s economic fundamentals.
The CEA emphasised that FY2024-25 marked a turnaround year for private capex, which had lagged in the previous fiscal year due to global volatility and high interest rates. According to him, the rebound indicates a healthy investment cycle, supported by both public infrastructure spending and corporate expansion plans.
“Contrary to perceptions of slowdown, private investment has gathered momentum in FY25, and this trend is expected to continue through FY26,” Nageswaran said.
He added that the revival of domestic demand, government-led infrastructure push, and reforms in taxation and compliance have created an enabling environment for industries to reinvest.
In his address, Nageswaran underscored the importance of integrating India into global supply chains instead of trying to onshore all production domestically. He said the government’s focus should be on strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities, improving logistics, and ensuring a level playing field through trade and tariff reforms.
He also mentioned that a US–India tariff deal could soon be finalised, potentially unlocking new opportunities for Indian exporters and manufacturers.
Nageswaran pointed out that India’s current growth in consumption is largely driven by the supply-side expansion, which has been fuelled by rising investments and improved productivity. “This phase of growth is not consumption-led inflation but investment-driven expansion, which is sustainable in the long term,” he added.
The CEA also highlighted that for sustained growth, India must maintain a robust regulatory and legal framework, addressing challenges such as inverted duty structures and ensuring policy predictability across sectors.
“Stable and transparent regulations attract long-term capital and ensure efficient market functioning. India’s ability to balance ease of doing business with accountability will determine how successfully we can sustain this growth trajectory,” he said.
Earlier at the same event, Tuhin Kanta Pandey, Chairperson of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), echoed Nageswaran’s optimism, noting that India’s capital markets will play a crucial role in achieving the nation’s goal of becoming a ‘Viksit Bharat’ (Developed India) by 2047.
He said that Indian companies have already raised approximately Rs 2 lakh crore from the primary market in the current financial year, reflecting robust investor confidence and strong domestic liquidity.
Pandey highlighted structural opportunities in the financial ecosystem, observing that mutual fund assets under management (AUM) are still below 25 percent of GDP, suggesting immense potential for expansion. “Urban participation stands at around 15 percent, while rural participation is only 6 percent, the future of market deepening lies in tapping this vast untapped base,” he said.
Both Nageswaran and Pandey agreed that despite the global slowdown, India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain resilient, driven by public investment, policy reforms, and expanding financial inclusion.
The CEA’s projection of growth exceeding 6.8 percent reaffirms India’s position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with sectors such as manufacturing, infrastructure, and digital services contributing significantly to GDP expansion.
Experts suggest that if private investment and FDI inflows continue at the current pace, India could sustain annual growth between 6.8 percent and 7.2 percent over the next few years, setting a strong foundation for long-term economic transformation and job creation.
With private capital expenditure rebounding, FDI inflows rising, and policy reforms reinforcing investor confidence, India’s economic story remains one of steady recovery and sustainable growth. The government’s focus on manufacturing, global supply chain integration, and capital market expansion positions the country firmly on track to surpass its 6.8 percent GDP growth target for FY26, a milestone that reflects both resilience and reform-driven progress.
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