Bihar Assembly election 2025 is once again going to provide new energy to the existing leadership in the State and the set political combination of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Nitish Kumar. This is apparent through all possible political surveys conducted in recent weeks.

The overriding key factors in this election are the LJP return to NDA, Prashant Kishore factor, seat sharing problem in Mahagathbandhan. RJD’s Muslim and Yadav (MY) factor vs. Nitish Kumar and BJP Mahila and Yuva (MY) factor will decide the fate of both combinations in this election.

Analysts say that National Democratic Alliance in Bihar Assembly elections may face some challenges from the RJD alliance (Mahagathbandhan). JD (U) lost seats and vote share in the case of the 2020 election when it secured only 43 seats. Some skeptics are repeating tall claims of Prashant Kishore. However, all ground reports this time clearly refute the rhetoric of Prashant Kishore because data suggests that in this election, there is little more pro-incumbency for Nitish Kumar than anti-incumbency.

In this year’s election, the seat sharing among alliances and ticket distribution by the parties are going to be crucial. RJD and Congress are clashing with each other on many seats. There is talk of friendly fights on many seats because both parties cannot dare to manage the rebel candidates.

Mistakes by NDA and Mahagandhabandhan will give rise to Jan Suraj. On the ground, sometimes micro issues are overriding the macro issues or narratives. On the macro level, there is no support base clearly in favour of Jan Suraj but this new party is smart enough to get benefits out of both alliances including NDA. Therefore, Jan Suraj’s strength lies in the mistakes of mainly RJD, JD (U) and BJP.

The welfare measures and some populist schemes are first time experimented in poor States like Bihar. The exemption of 125 units of electricity bills and 10,000 to self-help group women are catching the electoral narratives.

Tejeshwi’s Tall & False Promises

Tejeshwi’s promise of a job to every family failed to appeal to voters as it seems a false promise to everyone. However, Nitish Kumar’s popularity has increased because of the inauguration of some mega projects including Patna Metro, Digha Bridge, top roads like Patna to Begusarai and some expressway announcements. Whosoever is coming to Patna and visiting some areas of the capital city are fully impressed to see the new developments. It has generated a new faith in Nitish Kumar and Modi Ji to excel the further development in other parts of Bihar. Industry Minister Nitish Mishra’s efforts are widely appreciated and he is successful enough to pose a new faith about the industrialisation in Bihar. The welfare schemes are particularly targeted to women voters and new infrastructure projects are wooing youth voters. So, now it is clearly seen that there is MY equation in favour of NDA that is Mahila and Yuva. It is going to encounter Muslim and Yadav (MY) equation of RJD. It is said that young voters of Bihar have not seen the Jungle Raj of Lallu Yadav and they may support Tejeshwi as he is emphasising the employment opportunities. However, it is clearly visible that the young voters of Bihar also do not like the way RJD is doing the politics and the workers or local leaders associated with RJD. Rather the young voters like the new modern infrastructural developments that they think, only possible under the leadership of Modi Ji and Nitish Kumar albeit the Govt only with BJP. In case of Jan Suraj, the rhetoric of Prashant Kishore has little cached the sentiments of Bihar people but in absence of local leadership and particularly in absence of a team, the stand alone performance cannot yield the result. PK is doing everything alone, at least seen in the media. It is in contrast to the first election of AAP when there was a team of Kumar Vishwas, Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan and others to talk about AAP’s anti-corruption ideology. In the case of PK, he has done a clear blunder, he thinks that he alone can do everything and basically from the start, he didn’t attach value to new leadership on ground in Bihar.

Finally, the caste factor for which Bihar is famous. It seems this time, caste barriers are going to be shaken a little in the name of PM Narendra Modi’s vision, NDA performance and future expectations from NDA. People think whether NDA is right or wrong, it is the only combination that can carry out development. Based on these percolated opinions, considerable sections of Yadav are going to support NDA. There is no animosity among Yadavs even against Nitish Kumar. PM Modi Ji’s continuous thrust on social and economic development for OBC has taken time to deep down in Bihar but this time, it seems successful. Even in Raghopur, Tejashwi may face difficulty and combining all major castes into alliance like Paswan through LJP, Musahar through Jitan Ram Manjhi, Kushwaha through Upendra Kushwaha, Kurmi through Nitish Kumar himself and finally awarding Bharat Ratna to Karpoori Thakur, NDA is successful to do caste coalition on the ground. This caste coalition, good value attached to OBC and RJD combination’s failure to woo upper castes will certainly give an edge to NDA. Therefore, something is very clearly written on the wall in Patna, some people read it, some may not read it and in this way, this Bihar election is filled with less warmth.