A fragile, tenuous 48-hour ceasefire beginning October 15 evening has been reached between Afghanistan and Pakistan following intervention from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It was barely a week, six or seven days, of clashes with Afghanistan that sent Pakistan scurrying to its benefactors named in the preceding sentence. Pakistan used to attack Afghan positions in the past and term them as border clashes. No more so as Afghanistan gave it back in full strength and overran many Pakistani positions.
During this period, hilarious videos from Afghanistan emerged, those of Taliban soldiers sitting atop vehicles waving pants of Pakistani soldiers who abandoned their posts when attacked. The derisive laughter and comments of the Taliban soldiers describe the brave opponents they faced in substantial measure, if not fully.
Actually, Saudia and Qatar are more than just benefactors as they continuously drop crumbs into the begging bowl which the Pakistan government has in its hands, permanently! Some time ago, much was made of a military pact Pakistan had entered into with Saudis. At that time, it was said by opposition parties in India that this was a worrying development as Saudi forces will fight on the side of Pakistan from now onwards. Perhaps this determined onslaught from Afghanistan to Pakistani forays into its territory will unravel lots of truth about that too.
On a bilateral basis, Pakistanis were disdainfully ignored by the interim rulers of Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan. It was only the Saudis and Qataris that the Afghans have listened to and the happy hours for Pakistan may not last very long. Congenital liars being what they are, the Pakistan Foreign Office (FO) claimed in its statement that the ceasefire was arranged “with mutual consent of both the parties’’ at the request of the Afghan Taliban regime!
“During this period, both sides will make sincere efforts to find a positive solution to this complex but solvable issue through constructive dialogue,’’ the FO said, according to a Dawn report.
The announcement came hours after Pakistan carried out air strikes targeting key Taliban positions in Kandhar and Kabul, in response to attacks from Afghan soldiers that killed two dozen Pakistanis and injured at least 30, Pakistan military’s media wing, Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR). These dedicated spin masters are experts in projecting abject defeats as glorious victories. However, to their chagrin, the official Afghan Taliban government spokespersons have been saying that it was Pakistan which begged for a ceasefire.
Bragging Strategic Depth
What a fall for Pakistan which used to insinuate, rather brag openly often, that Afghanistan, a proud nation, was less than its fifth province! Less than Punjab. Less than Sindh. Less than Balochistan. Less than Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It used to boast that the whole of the country was at their beck and call, mainly to project what it called as “strategic depth’’. Of course, in its fight against India. Ironically, the trigger for Pakistan’s aerial bombardment using its air force was Afghanistan Foreign Minister Muttaqui’s maiden tour to India. The intense anger and frustration of the Pakistani military commanders can be imagined.
To its horror, Pakistan now realises that the ground realities are entirely different from the hollow claims of strategic depth. This bragging has proved to be really shallow and what was claimed and portrayed as depth has actually turned a nightmare. Being sandwiched between two hostile neighbours, India to its east and Afghanistan to its west. Not that another neighbour to Pakistan’s west, Iran, is very making any friendly overtures to it!
Pakistan Defence Minister Khwaja Asif has gone public with a statement saying there is a stalemate with Afghanistan right now. He also admitted that there are “no ties, direct or indirect’’ and the resumption of hostilities is a distinct possibility.
India’s Upgrade
In the recent past, India has upgraded its ties with Afghanistan Taliban government without formally recognising it. According to most reports, India has changed its technical mission in Kabul to a full strength mission with the posting of additional personnel. This has been done as the security situation has improved for Indian citizens there. Earlier, when Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri had visited Kabul, some people had termed it as a futile exercise.
These repeated engagements and behind the curtains negotiations with the Afghan Taliban over the past few months have turned the tide in India’s favour. Hostility of the Afghan Taliban towards Pakistan is the icing on the cake, so to say.
Will the ceasefire brokered by Saudi Arabia and Qatar hold? The answer to that question will be available in due course of time.
One more question that needs to be asked about this ceasefire is: Doesn’t it expose Pakistan’s inability to wage a war, however brief? If we look back to its May conflict with India, Operation Sindoor, Pakistan ran a sprint to Washington, asking the US to intervene and get a ceasefire. However, it was only after Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of Pakistan directly called his Indian counterpart Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai that they got a respite.
An important point to note is that Operation Sindoor has not been called off. Just that the operations have been halted, to be resumed, if and when need be. Remember that the bombardment of chosen targets, terrorist hideouts and military airfields included, barely lasted 72 hours after May 6/7 night that Pakistan was in a tailspin, begging for mercy. On Tuesday, Western Command Chief Lieutenant General Manoj Kumar Katiyar had said that Operation Sindoor 2.0 would be deadlier, more devastating for Pakistan.
“The action we take this time would be deadlier than the past. It will be far more powerful,’’ Lt Gen Katiyar had told reporters in Jammu at a rally. He admitted that Pakistan trying to carry out more attacks a la Pahalgam cannot be ruled out.
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