US President Donald Trump has given up his hardline stance towards India, marking a notable shift in Washington’s approach. Trump, who had earlier maintained that trade talks would remain frozen unless New Delhi stopped importing Russian oil, has now softened his position. Reversing his earlier rhetoric, Trump called Prime Minister Narendra Modi a “good friend” and announced that trade discussions with India would resume. In a similar conciliatory tone, he also eased pressure on China, describing his trade talks with Chinese officials in Spain as “productive” and stating that he would speak directly to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. He further confirmed plans to speak to Modi soon. Against this backdrop, India stands out as the ultimate beneficiary of these new political and economic realignments.
The shift is significant considering the recent turbulence in bilateral ties. The US team, originally scheduled to arrive in New Delhi last month for the sixth round of talks on the India-US trade agreement, was forced to cancel after Trump’s imposition of tough tariff measures. But in a clear signal of Washington’s softening posture, US Trade Representative and Chief Negotiator Brendan Lynch is landing in Delhi today. He is scheduled for a one-day visit, during which he will meet senior officials of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
While the primary agenda will be advancing discussions on the long-pending trade deal, both sides have also agreed to hold parallel negotiations on other contentious issues. The Indian government has welcomed the renewed diplomatic tone and Trump’s willingness to re-engage, viewing it as a positive step in rebuilding trust. The two leaders had earlier, in February this year, agreed in Washington to continue trade dialogue with the aim of finalising a deal by October or November. That plan was derailed when Trump suddenly reversed course, slapping heavy import duties not only on India but across much of the world.
Trump’s tariffs were especially sharp towards New Delhi. First came a 25% duty on Indian goods, followed by another 25% penalty linked to India’s continued imports of Russian oil. These moves deepened divisions between the two countries. The situation worsened after India refused US demands to grant duty-free market access for American agricultural and dairy products and rejected Washington’s insistence on eliminating tariffs in several sectors. Adding to the strain was India’s refusal to endorse Trump’s controversial claim that he personally resolved tensions in the India-Pakistan conflict.
Resilient Exports and Market Optimism Amid Trade Revival
Despite the tariff hikes, however, Indian exports to the US showed resilience. In August, shipments fell only marginally compared to July, dipping from $8.012 billion to $6.865 billion, a decline of 15.41%. This relatively limited fall suggests India has managed to cushion the immediate blow, even as trade talks now offer a pathway towards stabilisation.
On the market front, sentiment is cautiously optimistic. The GIFT Nifty opened 30 points lower this morning, reflecting some uncertainty, but analysts point to several encouraging indicators. First, the resumption of India-US trade negotiations and thawing ties between Washington, New Delhi, and Beijing signal a healthier global trade environment. Second, the US Federal Reserve is set to announce its monetary policy tomorrow, with growing expectations of an interest rate cut. This has already buoyed Wall Street: the S&P 500 rose 0.47%, the Nasdaq jumped 0.94%, and the Dow Jones added 0.11% in the latest session.
A rate cut by the Fed would likely weaken both the dollar and US Treasury yields, creating an opportunity for increased foreign capital inflows into Indian markets. For New Delhi, this could mean stronger liquidity and renewed investor confidence, amplifying the benefits of the improved diplomatic climate.
Rupee-Dollar Strength, Gold Rally, and Stable Crude Support India’s Economic Outlook
Global commodity trends are also playing into India’s advantage. Gold prices have surged on expectations of lower US rates, climbing by more than $40 per ounce to an all-time high of $3,687.07 before stabilising at the $3,680 level. The rally reflects anticipation of a weaker dollar and reduced bond yields. The Indian rupee, meanwhile, gained 10 paise yesterday to reach 88.16 against the dollar, with the greenback itself at a two-and-a-half-month low against major global currencies including the euro and yen. If the rupee continues strengthening today, the upward momentum in gold could ease somewhat.
Energy markets, another critical factor for India’s economy, are also showing signs of stability. Brent crude is trading at $67.52 per barrel, up 0.12%, while WTI crude is at $63.35, higher by 0.08%. Stable oil prices, combined with a stronger rupee, provide further relief for India’s import bill and inflation outlook.
In sum, Trump’s shift in tone has injected optimism into both diplomatic and market narratives. As the US and India recalibrate their positions, the evolving geopolitical thaw is set to create economic space for India to consolidate its position as a key player in the global order. The convergence of improved trade prospects, favourable monetary conditions, and resilient market indicators underline a promising moment for the Indian economy.
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