As tensions mount between Israel and Iran, the possibility of a full-scale military conflict grows increasingly real, raising alarm bells not only across West Asia but within major global capitals. What has for years been a shadow conflict fought through cyberattacks, intelligence networks, and proxy forces, now threatens to erupt into a direct confrontation with the potential to destabilise regional equilibrium and ripple across the global order. For India, a civilizational power with deep economic and strategic interests in both countries and the region at large, this is a moment not just of concern but of serious diplomatic calculus.
India’s Deep Stakes in the Region
India’s stakes in the West Asia, strategically, economically, and demographically are extensive. The region serves as a critical artery for India’s energy security. Over 60 per cent of India’s crude oil imports originate from West Asian countries. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime choke point through which one-fifth of global oil passes, would send oil prices soaring, disrupt energy supplies, and exacerbate inflationary pressures in India. Additionally, more than eight million Indians live and work in Gulf countries. They form not only an important labor force but also a major source of foreign exchange through remittances.
Simultaneously, India maintains robust bilateral relationships with both Israel and Iran. Israel has emerged as a key defense, intelligence, and agricultural technology partner. Defense exports, joint exercises, cybersecurity collaboration, and anti-terror frameworks underpin the strategic relationship between New Delhi and Tel Aviv. Iran, on the other hand, holds strategic importance as India’s gateway to Central Asia and Afghanistan via the Chabahar Port, a counterweight to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port backed by China. Iran is also a cultural and civilizational partner with whom India shares centuries of historical ties.
In such a scenario, India cannot afford to view the Israel-Iran crisis through a binary lens. The stakes are far too nuanced and layered. New Delhi must walk a delicate line of strategic autonomy, mature diplomacy, and national interest preservation.
Navigating the Global Chessboard
The geopolitical ramifications of a direct Israel-Iran war could be sweeping. The United States, long Israel’s staunch ally, would come under pressure to intervene militarily or through intelligence assets. Iran may retaliate by activating its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, or by disrupting global oil supply chains. In such a scenario, India would be confronted with external pressure to take sides, particularly from Western allies or from emerging power centers like Russia and China who may back Tehran. India’s challenge will be to avoid becoming a pawn in the emerging great power game.
The guiding principle should remain “strategic neutrality backed by active engagement.” India must pursue quiet, back-channel diplomacy with both Israel and Iran, reaffirming its long-standing position of non-interference and dialogue-based conflict resolution. Simultaneously, India must bolster its ties with Gulf monarchies such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who may play critical mediator roles while safeguarding their own interests in regional peace and oil security.
The Chabahar Imperative and Energy Diversification
The conflict could have unintended consequences for India’s connectivity ambitions through the Chabahar Port, which New Delhi has developed jointly with Tehran. Any instability in Iran could set back this key project that was envisioned to give India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan. In the long term, New Delhi must also accelerate its energy diversification strategy, expanding imports from the United States, Africa, and Latin America to reduce over-dependence on West Asia.
Moreover, it is imperative that India activates contingency plans for the safety and evacuation of Indian nationals from conflict zones if the situation deteriorates. The Indian Navy and Air Force must be prepared for logistical operations, while diplomatic missions must engage closely with local governments for updates and facilitation.
India’s Role as a Global Balancer
In an increasingly multipolar world, India finds itself in a position of growing influence. It has managed to balance ties with the US, Russia, Iran, Israel, and the Gulf States, a rare feat in today’s divided global landscape. India’s presidency of the G20, its voice in the BRICS coalition, and its active role in forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) give it a credible platform to act as a moral and pragmatic mediator.
Rather than choosing sides, India must offer leadership in global diplomacy, calling for a cessation of hostilities, pushing for the resumption of nuclear talks with Iran, and supporting any international initiative for a peace corridor in the region. India’s message should be clear: peace in West Asia is not only a regional priority but a global necessity.
Maritime Preparedness and Strategic Assertiveness
Given the risk of maritime disruption, particularly in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, India must strengthen its naval preparedness and maritime surveillance in collaboration with QUAD allies and Indian Ocean partners. A disruption in sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) could affect not only energy imports but also trade security. The Indian Navy must remain agile and visible.
At home, New Delhi must work with economic institutions to insulate the domestic economy from oil price shocks, ensure energy reserves are topped up, and prepare industries for potential supply chain disruptions.
A Doctrine of Decisive Diplomacy
India is not a passive observer of global developments. It is a civilisation with deep roots, a democracy with global responsibilities, and an emerging power with regional stakes. In the Israel-Iran crisis, New Delhi must rise above reactionary policy-making and adopt a doctrine of decisive diplomacy. This doctrine must be based on strategic restraint, regional outreach, global partnerships, and preparedness at all levels.
The world will not be the same if a full-blown Israel-Iran war materialises. But amidst the uncertainty, India can emerge not only as a protector of its own interests, but as a responsible stakeholder in preserving global stability. In doing so, India will affirm its place not on one side of the geopolitical aisle, but at the center of a new world order shaped by wisdom, resilience, and balance.
Comments