Following the announcement of by-polls for five Assembly seats in four States, these by-elections are expected to have far-reaching implications for political messaging. Out of these five seats, by-elections are to be held for two seats in Gujarat, one each in Kerala, West Bengal, and Punjab. These States are located in four corners of the country. West Bengal is in the eastern part, and Gujarat is in the western part. Kerala is located in the extreme southern part of the country, while Punjab is situated in the northern part. These Assembly by-polls will have a national message. These by-elections will showcase the political pulse of Kerala, Punjab and West Bengal. In Gujarat, it’s a one-horse race, as the BJP has only token opposition from its opponents in the State. Assembly elections are scheduled for Kerala and West Bengal next year, while elections are due in Punjab and Gujarat in 2027.
In Kerala, a by-election is scheduled for the Nilambur Assembly seat. This seat is located in the Malappuram district and falls within the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, which the Gandhi family has represented for the last three consecutive terms. Two different members from the Gandhi family have represented this seat twice in the last three Lok Sabha elections: the 2019 general election, the 2024 general election, and the by-poll after Rahul Gandhi vacated the seat. Currently, Priyanka Gandhi is the Member of Parliament (MP) for this seat. Independent PV Anwar has won the Nilambur Assembly seat twice in succession with the support of the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front. But PV Anwar has resigned from his membership and joined Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress. This time, it is expected that the Trinamool Congress will nominate PV Anwar as its candidate in this by-election; due. In this situation, a new political chapter will begin not only in this seat but also in the entire State. Mamata Banerjee’s experience of contesting and humiliating the communist parties in elections on her home turf of West Bengal will be very useful for the party in this by-election. Due to the Trinamool Congress contesting the by-election, there is a possibility of a four-cornered contest for this seat, as the LDF, the UDF, and the NDA are traditional rivals in this area. This seat is a matter of prestige for the Gandhi family, the LDF and the UDF. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Rahul Gandhi maintained a huge lead of more than 56000 votes on this Assembly seat, while in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he maintained a lead of more than 61000 votes. While the Congress party-led UDF faces the tough battle and challenge of winning this seat, the CPI(M) )-led LDF faces the challenge of retaining it.
On the other hand, former Trinamool Congress MLA PV Anwar, who is likely to contest the seat as the AITC candidate, faces the challenge of retaining the seat in the new political environment. If PV Anwar succeeds in winning the election, a new era will begin in State politics. Till now, the Muslim voters of the State have no other option but voting to the Indian Union Muslim League, a constituent of the UDF. However, if the Trinamool Congress party wins this seat, Muslim voters in the State may switch their allegiance to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress. There is speculation that a secret understanding exists between the Gandhi family and the P. Vijayan family to further their shared interests. The Gandhi family will not allow the party to contest strongly against P. Vijay and the LDF in the Assembly elections, while in return, the CPM-led LDF will not contest the Lok Sabha polls seriously from Wayanad and the entire State to give leverage to the Gandhi family and the Congress party.
The by-election for the Ludhiana West Assembly seat in Punjab is being held due to the death of Aam Aadmi Party MLA Gurpreet Singh Gogi. In the by-election for this seat, the AAP has surprised everyone by nominating its Rajya Sabha MP, Sanjeev Arora, the candidate. It is expected that if Sanjeev Arora wins the by-election, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal himself will contest the Rajya Sabha seat vacated by Sanjeev Arora. Therefore, this by-election has become a matter of prestige for both Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). If AAP loses the election, it will be a significant setback for Kejriwal’s reputation and a major blow to the AAP ahead of the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections. According to political experts, Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann may engineer the defeat of the AAP in the by-election to keep Kejriwal away from Punjab State politics. Kejriwal tries to directly enter Punjab politics by becoming RS from the State.
In Gujarat, two by-elections are crucial for determining which party will be the main opposition to the BJP in state politics. Two seats are up for grabs in the by-elections. One seat is Visavadar, which is currently held due to the resignation of the Aam Aadmi Party MLA and his subsequent joining of the BJP. The by-election on the second seat of Kadi is being held due to the demise of the BJP MLA. Suppose the performance of the Congress party is not satisfactory. In that case, it will be a significant setback for the party and Rahul Gandhi, as the party recently held a large gathering in the State. The main target for the AAP in the by-polls is to become the BJP’s main opponent by finishing as the runner-up in both seats. The prestige is at stake for the Congress party, as after securing zero seats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party has succeeded in opening its account in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Gujarat.
In West Bengal, a by-election is scheduled for the Kaliganj Assembly seat in Nadia district. This by-election is being held due to the death of the All India Trinamool Congress MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed. The Trinamool Congress has won the seat in the last three consecutive Assembly elections. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the Communist and Congress parties could not even open their account in the State despite their alliance. The Congress party tally in the West Bengal Assembly came to zero from 44 seats in the previous Assembly. Not only this, but it’s ridiculous that the Opposition party in the Assembly failed to open its account in West Bengal. As of now, in five States of UTs, the Congress party has no representation. These States of UTs are West Bengal, NCT of Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim and Nagaland. These parties, the Congress and the Communists will try to open their account in the State Assembly before the 2026 Assembly elections. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP was the main rival in this seat, and it is likely to win this seat again this time. The by-election for this seat is a matter of prestige for all parties ahead of the upcoming 2026 State Assembly elections.
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