In a comprehensive evaluation of current geopolitical threats, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has stated that Pakistan continues to consider India an “existential threat” and is actively modernising its military and tactical nuclear arsenal to counterbalance India’s superior conventional forces. This assertion is part of the latest World Threat Assessment report released by the DIA, which also sheds light on India’s defence posturing, China’s growing nuclear capabilities, and the trilateral dynamics shaping the South Asian strategic landscape.
The DIA report emphasises that Islamabad views Bharat not merely as a regional competitor but an existential danger. This perception continues to drive Pakistan’s policy of enhancing its military capabilities, particularly its battlefield or tactical nuclear weapons. These include short-range systems like the Nasr (Hatf-IX) missile, which is often showcased as a deterrent to India’s conventional military superiority.
The report warns that Pakistan is intent on further modernising its nuclear arsenal while maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and command and control structures. Additionally, Pakistan is suspected of actively procuring weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-applicable materials from foreign intermediaries and suppliers.
Operation Sindoor: India’s Strategic Messaging
The report highlights India’s assertiveness in the form of “Operation Sindoor,” an airstrike operation targeting terror infrastructure inside Pakistani territory. Conducted early on May 10, the operation involved precision strikes on nine Pakistani air bases, including significant hits on Nur Khan and Sargodha. The attack on Nur Khan airbase, located in Rawalpindi and in close proximity to the headquarters of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division—responsible for handling its nuclear arsenal—was viewed as a deliberate signal of India’s strategic intent.
The strikes, according to the DIA, constituted “clear strategic messaging” before a ceasefire understanding took effect later that evening.
The report underscores Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s evolving defence priorities, noting that the Indian government is likely to continue focusing on:
- Demonstrating global leadership
- Countering China’s regional assertiveness
- Enhancing India’s overall military capabilities
Despite ongoing cross-border hostilities, India views China as the “primary adversary” and Pakistan as a secondary security challenge that must be “managed,” the DIA observes. This is evident in Bharat long-term focus on fortifying its Indo-Pacific strategy and strengthening defence partnerships in the region.
A substantial portion of the report is dedicated to analysing China’s military and nuclear advancements. The DIA estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal has surpassed 600 operational warheads and projects that the number will exceed 1,000 operational warheads by 2030. These warheads are expected to be maintained at higher readiness levels to enable faster response times during conflicts.
The DIA further highlights China’s central role in facilitating a global proliferation nexus. For decades, Beijing has helped Pakistan and North Korea advance their nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The report explicitly states that “foreign material and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programmes are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China,” with transhipment often occurring through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkiye, and the UAE.
Pakistan’s Military Dependency on China
Pakistan’s defence capabilities are significantly bolstered by Chinese support. The report describes Islamabad as “primarily a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse.” In line with this dependence, the Pakistani military engages in multiple joint exercises with Chinese forces each year.
This deepening cooperation is strategically significant, especially in the context of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and broader geopolitical objectives shared by Beijing and Islamabad in counterbalancing India’s growing regional influence.
India’s Defence Modernisation and Strategic Deterrence
India, on the other hand, is taking decisive steps to reinforce its defence posture. In 2024, India successfully tested its Agni-I Prime, a nuclear-capable medium-range ballistic missile, as well as the Agni-V, equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs)—a technology that allows a single missile to carry multiple warheads aimed at different targets.
In a major boost to its nuclear triad, India also commissioned its second nuclear-powered submarine, INS Arighaat. This significantly enhances India’s second-strike capability and its ability to maintain credible deterrence in the region.
The report notes that India is likely to continue promoting its ‘Made in India’ initiative in 2025 as a means to develop its indigenous defence industry, reduce supply chain vulnerabilities, and modernise its armed forces.
India is also actively advancing bilateral, trilateral, and quadrilateral defence partnerships, particularly in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and the Indo-Pacific. Through joint military exercises, training programs, arms deals, and intelligence sharing, Bharat aims to counter China’s influence and assert itself as a global security provider.
This strategy is in line with India’s broader diplomatic and military push, which includes collaborations with countries such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and France.
India-China Border Tensions: A Lingering Issue
While some de-escalation has occurred, the DIA report points out that India and China’s border tensions remain unresolved. In October 2024, disengagement took place in the Depsang and Demchok regions of eastern Ladakh. However, the DIA stresses that this move “did not resolve the long-standing dispute about border demarcation,” even though it did succeed in easing some tensions that have persisted since the deadly Galwan Valley clash of 2020.
The DIA’s World Threat Assessment paints a picture of a volatile regional equation driven by entrenched rivalries, strategic distrust, and competing global ambitions. India is balancing its defence imperatives between two nuclear-armed neighbours—Pakistan and China—with distinct but overlapping threats.
While Pakistan continues to focus on asymmetric warfare and nuclear deterrence to counter India’s conventional edge, Bharat is increasingly oriented toward global military and strategic leadership. Meanwhile, China’s rapidly expanding military and nuclear capabilities, along with its support for Pakistan’s defence programs, add another layer of complexity to South Asia’s security dynamics.
The interplay among these three powers—India, Pakistan, and China—will remain a critical focal point for global security analysts and policymakers in the years to come. The DIA’s insights underline the need for vigilant diplomacy, robust defence preparedness, and regional stability mechanisms to prevent escalation in an already tense environment.
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