In the early hours of April 7, Bharat launched a precision attack with air-to-surface guided missiles on known terrorist centres based in Pakistan. The attack commenced at 0105 hrs and lasted about 25 minutes. In a departure from previous strikes into Pakistan, this operation targeted Punjab, the very heartland of Pakistan among other places.
Nine terrorist hubs were targeted from Muzaffarabad in the north to Bahawalpur in the south. The lateral spread of the targets was nearly 750 kms. While Bhawalpur is about 100 kms from the International Border (IB), the nearest target Chak Amru is literally on the IB near Pathankot.
The attack is in retaliation to the brutal terrorist attack in Pahalgam that left 26 innocent civilians dead in a savage display of communal hatred. Despite being sure about the source of the attack, Bharat, in an initial reaction, imposed only diplomatic and economic restrictions on Pakistan. The cancellation of visas was designed to safeguard the nation against sleeper cells operating here. Thus, the Indian response was measured and mature.
Investigations revealed the hand of Pakistan based terrorists organisations, mainly the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in the attack. They conducted the operation through their proxy – The Resistance Front (TRF). These ogranisations function with the active support of Pakistan Army’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) became apparent.
Global Condemnation
Intelligence agencies across the world also understood the hand of Pakistan based terrorist organisations. As a result, all nations along with the United Nations condemned the attack and called upon Pakistan to bring the perpetrators to justice. Pakistan, as always, chose to remain in denial mode.
Evolving Consensus
In Bharat, there is widespread anti-Pakistan sentiment. The nation has united in support of the victims and their families while also demanding vengeance. Despite the pressure, the Government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not give way to emotion. Wide ranging consultation with leaders of the opposition parties was carried out to generate consesus. All elements of the Government, mainly, Home Affairs, External Affairs, Ministry of Defence, were incorporated. The service chiefs were called to advise the Government and the Prime Minister personally. Many meetings of the Cabinet committee on security and other bodies were held.
Seamless civil-military coordination was visible, starting from the meetings of the CCS and the one-to-one meetings of the Chiefs with the Prime Minister. These are indicators of a high level of maturity in application of the national defence doctrine.
Bharat Gave Ample Time to Pak
On the basis of the aforementioned consultations and on confirmation through intelligence and various other sources about the complicity of terrorist organisations based in Pakistan in the attack, Bharat gave Pakistan ample opportunity to set its house in order. It made a demand upon the country to punish the perpetrators of the heinous crime.
All right thinking nations and institutions were looking at Pakistan to admit the lapse and act against the terrorist infrastructure operating on its soil. Pakistan, however, did not react for fifteen days, instead, the country started raising a sentiment of Jihad (war) against India among its masses.
With clear indication of further misadventures by the emboldened terrorist organisations and on the recommendations of all stakeholders, it was decided that a preemptive action to deter the ruthless and savage perpetrators of terror was imperative.
The attack on the terrorist sites, therefore, should not be construed as an act of vengeance. Its objective was to ensure security of the Indian nation against those who are unwilling to see reason. The decision was reached in a cool and objective manner with commendable intelligence and strategic insight.
Once the decision was taken, due care was exercised to keep the action non-escalatory. For this reason, only known terrorist hubs were targeted. Precision guided munitions were used to ensure pin-point impact in a manner that no adjoining civilian facility was damaged. No military target along the line of control or within Pakistan was engaged. The meticulous planning and maturity of the Indian response is indeed commendable and will, in time, elicit the admiration of the global community.
The operation highlighted the high level of jointness that the Bharatiya Armed Force, Army, Air Force and Navy have achieved. There was seamless synergy visible. The Armed Forces, through this operation, have passed the first acid test of the concept of coordinated Theater Commands that has been taken up in the last few years with the appointment of a Chief of Defense Staff (CDS).
Another aspect of significance is the manner in which the Government conducted the post-operation press briefing. The foreign secretary Vikram Misri was flanked by two women officers, Colonel Sofiya Qureshi and Wing Commander Vyomika Singh. The outcome was a powerful message of a modern, inclusive, and assertive Bharat.
The symbolism of the strike is as important as the strike itself. Overall, it has made a strong statement of the intent of the Indian nation to pursue the policy of zero tolerance to acts of terror and its resolve to keep security paramount.
Pakistan Targeting Civilians
All eyes are now on the Pakistani response to the attack. The Line of Control (LOC) has been heated with Pakistan initiating artillery barrages. Bharat, too is responding, but only military targets along the LOC. Sadly, Pakistan is attacking villages near the LOC, leading to heavy civilian casualties. This is another grave violation of the Geneva Convention by Pakistan that the Government of Bharat should take up in the United Nations and other international forums. A big disadvantage for Pakistan is the lack of response of the people towards a retaliatory attack. The political turmoil in the country, which includes imprisonment of its tallest leader, Imran Khan and reports of his torture in custody, has considerably dampened the spirit of the common man to seek revenge. The hysteria that such incidents used to generate earlier is markedly absent.
Pakistan is not being able to garner the type of international support that it enjoyed earlier. While the country cannot move ahead without support, Bharat has the capacity to maintain a situation of conflict for a protracted period of time. This is a huge strategic advantage for Bharat. Pakistan is aware but unwilling to accept the same.
Statements by senior leaders of Pakistan are a cause for concern. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in his address to his nation has said that “India must suffer the consequences.” “Perhaps they thought we would retreat – but they overlooked the fact that this nation is built on courage,” he further added.
The meticulous planning and maturity of the Indian response is indeed commendable and will, in time, elicit the admiration of the global community
While claiming massive losses including downing of a few fighter jets and destruction of a Brigade Headquarter, Defence Minister of Pakistan, Khawaja Asif has hinted towards de-escalation of tensions, “Pakistan does not seek war. Our forces are prepared, but we are equally prepared to exercise restraint — conditional on India ceasing its current military campaign. If India stops, so will we.” This could be a method to avoid escalation on the premise that punishment has already been afflicted.
The above contradictory and confusing statements do not have much value since the final decision of retaliation or otherwise rests solely with the Pakistan Army. Pakistan Army Chief, General Asim Munir, is known to be a radical hardliner. He is, in fact, the architect of the ongoing tensions and now he looks upon the Indian attack as an act of war. Experts, therefore, feel that some kind of a retaliation from Pakistan is sure to come. It can be hoped that the action remains manageable to the extent that it negates the need for yet another level of escalation which would be difficult to handle.
The Escalation Matrix
Pakistan needs to realise that its present economic and political situation does not match with the masochism of its leaders and military generals. It also needs to realise that modern India is far removed from the policy of strategic restraint that it pursued earlier. A retaliatory action, even symbolic in nature, may spiral into an all-out conflict. The best option for Pakistan, therefore, is to carry-on with the propaganda of having inflicted great loss to India and leverage the same to wiggle out of the situation. Only time will tell whether it will follow the conciliatory line or give way to the ingrained sense of superiority and radical mind-set of its leaders.
It would be premature to speculate on what Pakistan would do. However, the very professional Indian Armed Forces and the Government would have war-gamed all possible contingencies and decided on the level of response. In other words, India will be ready and waiting. India has the capacity to engineer a massive response to whatever level of escalation the neighbouring country engineers. The overall consequences for a misadventure can be quite disastrous for Pakistan.
Apart from responding to any misadventure that Pakistan might indulge in, India may continue with the proactive posture of neutralising terror infrastructure in Pakistan, if the neighbouring country does not listen to sane advice and allows the terror machinery to flourish as before. More deep strikes into Pakistan by India can be expected.
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