In a resounding show of resilience, the Indian stock market has become the first in the world to completely erase losses triggered by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement earlier this month. As trading resumed after a long weekend break for Ambedkar Jayanti, benchmark indices in Mumbai staged a strong comeback, buoyed by investor confidence and supportive macroeconomic cues.
The National Stock Exchange’s Nifty 50 index surged by as much as 2.4 per cent during Tuesday’s trading session, climbing back to levels last seen on April 2, the day Trump signed the executive order announcing punitive tariffs on trade partners. The recovery marks a significant turnaround for Indian equities, which had seen a nearly 10 per cent dip in recent months due to global uncertainties.
Global investors bet on India amid tariff turmoil
According to a Bloomberg report, global investors are increasingly touting Indian markets as a “relatively safe haven” amidst the heightened volatility sparked by the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China. While the US administration has temporarily “paused” the enforcement of reciprocal tariffs for most nations, China — its primary trade rival — remains the key target.
This distinction has worked in India’s favor. Speaking to Bloomberg, Gary Dugan, CEO of The Global CIO Office, said, “We remain overweight India in our portfolios.” He added that Indian equities continue to look attractive, supported by solid domestic growth prospects and the global push to diversify supply chains away from China. “India stands out as a safer bet over the medium term,” he noted.
China distanced, India spotlighted
India’s longstanding policy of limiting Chinese investment in strategic sectors has insulated its economy from the direct fallout of the US-China tariff war. As tensions between the world’s two largest economies escalate, India is being seen not only as a safer investment destination but also as a promising alternative manufacturing hub.
While China has retaliated against the US with counter-tariffs, India has maintained a more flexible and cooperative approach. A “win-win” trade agreement between New Delhi and Washington is said to be in its final stages — a move that has boosted international confidence in India’s diplomatic and economic adaptability.
Economic reforms and RBI’s support fuel recovery
The rebound in Indian markets also follows a series of domestic policy interventions. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already begun easing interest rates to counter the negative impact of global uncertainties. Economists expect further rate cuts in the coming months, which have helped rebuild investor sentiment.
Moreover, falling international crude oil prices have also played a key role in improving India’s economic outlook. As one of the world’s largest oil importers, lower energy costs significantly ease fiscal pressure and contribute to stronger macroeconomic fundamentals.
The numbers tell the story
Bloomberg data reveals that the Nifty 50 index is currently trading at 18.5 times its 12-month forward earnings — lower than the five-year average of 19.5 times and well below the peak multiple of 21 recorded in September 2022. This suggests room for further upside, especially given India’s favorable demographics and strong domestic consumption trends.
Importantly, India remains far less exposed to US tariffs than its competitors. The country accounts for just 2.7 per cent of total US imports, compared to China’s 14 per cent and Mexico’s 15 per cent, a significant buffer that offers additional resilience in the face of rising protectionism.
India’s rise as a global investment haven
Despite a challenging global economic environment, India’s ability to weather external shocks and attract global capital is being increasingly recognised. With strong domestic demand, supportive policy moves, and a strategic positioning in global trade dynamics, the Indian stock market’s full recovery sends a strong signal: the country is not just surviving global turbulence — it’s thriving.
As geopolitical shifts continue to reshape the world economy, India’s measured and market-friendly approach may well position it as a leading voice in the next chapter of global trade and investment.
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