It was in March 1971 that the leaders of West Pakistan (now Pakistan) decided to go the whole hog after Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and his supporters based in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). Military dictator General Yahya Khan ordered a full-scale repression of Bengali intellectuals, students, and doctors and to put the fear of god in them, go for mass rapes. The result was Operation Searchlight launched on March 25 in which the large-scale genocide of the Bengalis, particularly Hindus and Muslim nationalists, was done.
What had triggered this brutal response from the Punjabi-dominated Pakistan Army against the Bengalis? Well, the Bengalis had dared to demand that Sheikh Mujibur Rehman be made the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Why? In the national elections held throughout Pakistan, both in its Eastern and Western wings, Sheikh’s party, the Awami League, had emerged a clear winner. It had won over 160 seats in the 300 member House as against around 80 won by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) he had founded in November 1967.
Despite being a clear loser in the national elections, Bhutto insisted that he will be in the government and the Bengali leader should share power with him. Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, being a clear winner, saw no reason for succumbing to this totally undemocratic demand. He waited patiently for General Yahya to convene the newly elected Parliament as he hoped to take over as PM. As and when this was done as he reasoned that Yahya could not postpone convening of the newly elected members indefinitely.
Stealing Mandate
Yahya tried to mediate between the feuding leaders but failed miserably as both refused to back out from their respective stated positions. The angry military strongman then decided not to convene the Parliament, something for which the Bengalis had waited patiently for over two months. In this, he was clearly siding with Bhutto for Yahya too was from the West Pakistan. All hell broke loose in East Pakistan thereafter with the Bengalis going on a rampage after the denial of their democratic right of forming a government.
This was clearly a daylight robbery, a robbery of democratic mandate which the Awami League had won fair and square. An interesting thing about the 1970 December elections in Pakistan was they were conducted under Yahya’s supervision, somebody clearly aligned with Bhutto. Yet, it must be said that these elections were conducted in a totally free and fair manner with the Pakistani Army and other security forces were instructed not to play favourites. Why?
It is said that Yahya and Bhutto had allowed these elections to be conducted freely as they expected a hung House, as predicted by the intelligence agencies. They did not know what to do once the results were out and the Awami League turned out a clear winner. The dilemma before them was what to do next? If they were to respect the democratic mandate, they needed to hand over power to Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, something of a strong anathema to them.
Once they decided not to respect the mandate delivered by 1970 December polls, brutal repression was the only method they could apply to East Pakistan. What they initiated in March 1971 led to the birth of Bangladesh nine months later in December that year, on December 16, 1971, to be precise. They did not realise in March 1971 even once that their brutalities had led to conception of a new nation on the world map.
Rigged Elections Reality
In genuine democracies, periodical elections are part of a seamless process by which governments are formed, without bloodshed, military coups or violent upheavals. Between its birth on August 15, 1947, and December 1970, Pakistan has been a democracy barely for a decade. It needs to be recalled that General Ayub Khan had staged a military coup in October 1958 and it was only in early 1969 that he gave up power. As such, it was widely believed in Pakistan that resorting to undemocratic methods was no big deal.
It may seem ironical but the only time Pakistan saw a free and fair elections was in December 1970, and the nation could not survive them! All elections, whether at provincial levels or at the national, before these or after them, have been broadly categorised “rigged’’ by independent observers. Only the degree of rigging in favour of a particular party or parties, or against those out of favour, is debated. The elections that happened in Pakistan on February 8, 2024, were no different. These elections were rigged heavily in favour of Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and against Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) party.
In that sense, the similarities between 1971 December elections and the February 2024 elections are too stark to be ignored. It was the denial of post victory mandate to Sheikh Mujibur Rehman which provided the substratum on which instability, and ultimate dismemberment, of Pakistan developed. In the present era, the illegitimacy of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government and its highhandedness is the basic cause of instability in Pakistan.
Be it top civilian leaders like the PM Sharif, or the top military commanders like General Asim Munir, they have been vowing in public, in unison, to stand committed to crushing the rebellions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Even President Asif Zardari is playing blantantly biased games as he visited Quetta (Balochistan) a couple of days ago and repeated Sharif and Munir’s vows. The reason for his visit to Balochistan capital is his party, PPP led by his son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, rules Balochistan.
Ignoring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
President Zardari, PM Sharif and Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir have all systemitcally ignored Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Why? Their basic reason for not supporting Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Aman Ali Gandapur is that he belongs to Imran’s party. After the February 2024 elections, despite their best (or worst) attempts at rigging all over the country, the powers that be, mainly the Pakistan Army and the Caretaker government of the day, could not prevent Imran loyalist Gandapur from becoming the CM.
This is a thorn in the sides of all the three men mentioned together in a sentence above. The Governor of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Faisal Karim Kundi belongs to the PPP of Bhutto Zardari clan and he has left no stone unturned to clash with Gandapur on smallest of excuses. At one time, the Federal government headed by PM Sharif, the security apparatus headed by General Munir and President Zardari were keen to get Gandapur dismissed as CM. They toyed with the idea of dismissing Gandapur on charges of his alleged failure to maintain “law and order’’ in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
They had to shelve their plans to remove Gandapur as KP CM as his dismissal can trigger demands for dismissal of Sarfaraz Bugti, Chief Minister of Balochistan. President Zardari’s hurried visit to Quetta was meant to pre-empt demands that may arise from some quarters for Bugti’s dismissal. This deft politicking aimed at saving the PPP government in Balochistan is the real reason for President Zardari’s seeming hurry, as also worry.
Despite the attack on Bannu Cantonment of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, President Zardari chose not to visit the province as he is not welcomed by Gandapur whom he could have provoked. General Asim Munir visited Bannu and condemned the attack on the cantonment recently to try to convey a message to rebels who are fomenting violence there. However, CM Gandapur was not by his side and this clearly shows the divide between the PTI and General Munir.
Train Hijacking Last Straw?
The recent hijacking of Jaffar Express in Balochistan on March 11 seems to have proved to be the last straw that broke the camel’s back as far as the Pakistan Army is concerned. It has galvanised the security apparatus and in the days to come, a massive crackdown in Balochistan is the course of action the security forces are planning. This train hijacking has proved to be particularly annoying for the Pakistani security establishment is that it virtually serves as a lifeline for them.
On daily basis, it moves at least 1,000 people, both civilians and security personnel of various descriptions, between Quetta and Peshwar (corresponding return journey is from Peshawar to Quetta). One way trip of this train takes around 35 hours to cover approximately 1,600 km and touches several garrison towns during this journey. All through its journey, a substantial number of security personnel, both on duty and off duty, are present in the train, and on platforms at all stations on the way.
The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have targeted this train twice during the past four months, on November 9, 2024, and March 11, 2025. The November incident took place at Quetta railway station when a suicide bomber blew himself up and killed over two dozen Army personnel. In the recent incident, the hijacking per se may have caused less fatal casualties (or similar) but it has brought Balochistan into sharper focus worldwide.
It needs to be mentioned that there have been no incidents of hijacking of any train worldwide for several decades now. When the BLA nationalists hijacked Jaffar Express barely 10 days ago, it evoked memories of the hijacking of a train in Netherlands in May 1977, almost five decades ago. In the Netherlands train hijacking, the deed was done by nine armed Molluccan nationalists to bring their demands into sharper focus. In the Jaffar Express hijacking, the hijackers apparently numbered in dozens who descended from nearby barren mountains.
Crackdown Costs High
Whatever may be the wishes of the Pakistani politicians and the security forces personnel, the costs imposed by Balochistan nationalistic rebels and hardline Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on pauper Pakistan are already becoming too much to bear. The transport costs, provisions and housing costs are prohibitively expensive and they are increasing by the day.
Incidentally, comparisons regarding geographical spread of these two restive provinces of Pakistan and the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu & Kashmir here in India may help understand things better. Regarding the nearly insurmountable challenges for Pakistan on account of insurgencies.
Balochistan, which covers nearly 45 per cent of Pakistan’s geographical spread is approximately 3,50,000 square kilometres of mainly barren territory, with porous border with Iran and Afghanistan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is far smaller at around 1,00,000 square kilometres, with porous border contiguous to Afghanistan. In comparison, J&K is around 42,000 kilometres (Jammu region 26,000 square kilometres, Kashmir 16,000 square kilometres) only, around 1/10th of Balochistan and KP provinces put together.
How much can (does) it cost to maintain the presence of security forces in areas which are 10 times larger than Jammu & Kashmir? Only General Asim Munir and PM Sharif can tell! For they are two Pakistanis who have to face demands, allocations and create wherewithal in the combatants fighting on their side. Besides maintaining a modicum of control on these two provinces, Munir-Sharif duo also need to keep looking over their shoulders for their eastern neighbour India too. Of necessity, due to its perpetual hostility, it needs to deploy its forces on Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab and J&K borders contiguous to India too.
Balochistan & Bangladesh
For the past few years, the hold of the Federal government of Pakistan is loosening on vast areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. It is common knowledge that while the Pakistani security forces are able to keep most highways open, even if not safe, by their presence through patrolling during day time, after dusk it is the rebels who call the shots. As soon as it grows dark, the security forces prefer to retreat to their strongholds within cantonment areas, police posts and other establishments which are heavily fortified.
Bangladesh, which was once East Pakistan, had to secede away from its western wing due to exploitation of resources, unfair representation in jobs and power structures. The Bengalis resented that they contributed much to the exchequer but got very little in return. The condition of Balochistan is no different on this matrix. The vast areas of Balochistan are mineral rich, they are rich in natural gas but these are taken out of the province for the benefit of Pakistan.
Gwadar port development was touted as cornerstone of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will change the fate of Pakistanis. Whatever else may have happened, it has failed to give even a fraction of its benefits to the local Baloch. The development of areas nearby only led to problems for the local fishermen as large Chinese trawlers proved predatory and they were pushed to the margins. In the infrastructure that has been built, the labour used was either Chinese, or Punjabis! That is the reason the Baloch rebels have targeted the Punjabis in Balochistan and killed some of them.
Now what?
The Baloch now understand that Gwadar’s development does not help them at all. It is meant to help the Chinese get access to sea route and Pakistan may get some concessions by way of soft loans, deferment of maturing loans etc. In other words, the local Baloch are not trusted and not acknowledged or considered stakeholders by Pakistan, or its master China.
Given this, it is anyone’s guess as to how restive the Baloch are getting and how keen they are to secede away from Pakistan.
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