In his address to a joint session of Parliament on March 10, President Asif Zardari conveyed to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to halt work on new canals being planned by Punjab on the Indus River. Sharif now understands that the PPP led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari may withdraw support to his government in the worst-case scenario, something catastrophic. He will now try to come up with a face-saving formula to halt the construction of canals and continue getting support from the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).
It is an open secret that relations between the PML-N of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the PPP led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari have been going through a tough phase for the past few months. So much so that in January this year, PPP leader Shazia Mari had to say publicly that the Federal government would fall the day her party, the Pakistan Peoples Party, withdrew support for it. She was obviously conveying to the Sharifs, on behalf of her party’s top leadership, not to push the PPP to the wall.
Things became more starkly clear on March 10 when President Asif Zardari addressed a joint session of Parliament in which he openly questioned decisions taken by Sharif. Without mincing words, Zardari said that the government’s one-sided way of making decisions was causing a grave strain on the Federation. What he clearly meant was the manner in which upper riparian Punjab was pushing Sindh into a tight corner was causing significant discontent in the Federation, according to Dawn.
The spectre of the fall of PM Sharif’s government and its domino effect on the whole of Pakistan has now been clearly conveyed to him. It needs to be mentioned here that to date, no PM of Pakistan has completed a full five-year term. In the past 75 years, there have been at least 29 Prime Ministers, and PM Sharif may become the 30th such PM.
Some months ago, the federal government decided to construct new canals to draw more water from Indus and irrigate areas in Cholistan (Punjab). The PM’s niece, Maryaz Nawaz, is the Chief Minister of Pakistan Punjab, and in that capacity, she egged on her uncle to do her bidding. In this, she enjoyed the unstinted support of the Army headed by General Asim Munir. In fact, despite the objections raised by the Sindh government, General Munir and Maryam had announced the beginning of the project to construct the canals.
To intimidate the PPP into submission, General Munir participated in the inaugural ceremony where the canal project was launched with much fanfare some time back. The federal government, the Punjab government, and the Pakistan Army are on the same page regarding the construction of canals. This poses a very difficult challenge to the PPP, which draws strength from Sindh, which is its stronghold.
It needs to be mentioned here that the Sharifs are big landlords and industrialists of Pakistani Punjab. On the other hand, the Bhuttos are the unchallenged leaders in Sindh. As such, the two provinces are very important for the Sharifs and the Bhuttos.
Veiled in President Zardari’s words was the threat that if the work on new canals is not stopped soon, the PPP may withdraw support to PM Sharif’s government leading to its collapse. With Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) a major problem for Sharif, he cannot afford to alienate PPP pushing Pakistan into chaos.
PPP-PML(N) disagreements
The differences between the PML-N and the PPP have been simmering for many months now as the key ally has expressed frustration over what it calls unfulfilled promises. The PML-N is heading the Federal government, with outside support from the PPP. In December 2024, the leaders from both sides, PM Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif and others on one side, and President Zardari, his son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Senate Chairman Yousuf Raza Gilani failed to resolve their disagreements.
Even after that meeting, PPP Senator Saleem Mandviwalla declared that directives issued by the President’s office (Zardari’s side) were not being heeded by the PM’s (Shehbaz Sharif) Office. The Presidential address has sent the PML-N leadership scurrying for cover, and attempts to placate Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and President Zardari were initiated by PM Sharif in earnest immediately after the Presidential remarks.
The address came at a time when differences between the ruling coalition partners, PML-N and PPP, started becoming more visible. While the PPP has no ministers in the Federal cabinet, it knows fully well that its votes are integral to Sharif’s survival as PM of Pakistan. If push comes to a shove, the PPP can withdraw its support to the government and bring down the Sharif government in no time.
President Zardari’s thinly veiled words of warning to PM Sharif seems to have sent the right message across. Within minutes of the presidential address, the top PML-N leadership went into a huddle and later met Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Yousuf Raza Gilani, and most of the senior leaders of the PPP. It appears the PPP has conveyed to PM Sharif that the construction of canals to irrigate newer areas in Punjab was a question of survival for Sindh on which no compromise was possible.
It has been conveyed to PM Sharif that the cost of the canal project could easily be the demise of his government despite the Army’s backing. Several leaders, including PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, recently expressed displeasure over what they called the “indifferent attitude” of the PML-N towards them. PPP leaders have often complained of being sidelined, particularly in Punjab, where the PML-N rules. It is a fact that in Punjab, Maryam often ignores even her uncle PM Sharif and can one day prove to the reason for his fall.
Punjab’s New Canals root cause
The PPP has also repeatedly voiced concern over the construction of controversial canals in Punjab’s Cholistan area. It has called for the immediate meeting of the Council of Common Interests (CCI), which has been pending for 11 months, and called for the canal issue to be raised there. The Sindh government claims the new canals would reduce the province’s share of water and may turn the cultivable land barren.
In short, the Sindhi leaders of PPP have conveyed their fears that they won’t allow Punjab to draw more water from Indus. They have said clearly now that Punjab’s newer areas can only be irrigated at the cost of Sindhi farmers by turning their lands into fallow, useless and barren. This is a price that the PPP is not willing to allow the combined might of the Punjab government, the Federal government and the Pakistan Army.
Zardari put his years of political cunning and finesse into good use while addressing the matter in Monday’s joint parliament session. He said: “It is … my constitutional duty as your President, my personal obligation as a patriotic Pakistani, to caution this House and the government, that some of your unilateral policies are causing grave strain on the Federation. In particular, the government’s unilateral decision to carve out more canals from the Indus River System, despite strong opposition from federating units.’’
“A proposal that I, as your president, cannot support. I urge this government to abandon this current proposal and work together with all stakeholders to come up with viable, sustainable solutions based on unanimous consensus among the federating units,’’ he added.
The President said he would like to invite the attention of the present lawmakers to fulfil the responsibility entrusted to Parliament and play their role in nation-building, strengthening institutions and improving governance. For good measure, he called for the agriculture sector to be strengthened to ensure sustainable water management and to manage the “growing threats of climate change”. He noted that Pakistan must aim for stability and self-sufficiency in food production.
“At the same time, we should not forget that militancy finds roots in deprivation and inequity, so we must focus on the development of regions most affected by terrorism and create employment,” Zardari said. Zardari’s use of the words deprivation and inequity is significant in the context of discontent spreading fast in Sindh on the question of the construction of canals by Punjab.
Mangla, Tarbela drying up
This year, both the Mangla and Tarbela dams, the biggest dams in Pakistan presently, are fast reaching dead storage levels. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warned some days ago that these dams may see a shortfall of as much as 35 per cent in the coming days. Its officials said that the farmers may not be able to get enough water to irrigate their wheat crop, and the yield may be hit hard.
In fact, it was in October 2024 that IRSA authorities had warned of the possibility of low winter rainfall leading to such a scenario. The warnings have proved to be prophetic and are playing out on ground zero now.
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