There are 12 commanders, and 400 Maoists left to be eliminated. More importantly, starting today they have 364 days remaining to either surrender or battle the security forces and get wiped out.
The war on the Maoists has been a successful one. Since 2021 385 Maoists have been killed of which 310 were killed in 2024 alone. This shows how good the momentum is and the target set by Union Home Minister Amit Shah to eliminate the problem by March 2026 could well be achieved sooner.
One of the key aspects of this battle was that the security forces targeted the commanders first. This has resulted in the death of the top commanders and without their guidance the cadre on the ground find it very hard to battle it out.
Currently there are only 12 active commanders left. They are fighting the last leg of the battle and the manner in which they are incurring loses clearly suggests that they are out of funds and high demoralised.
The Bastar division where the last of the Maoists are remaining has around 400 armed cadres left. There are 800 more Maoists remaining, but they do not engage in ground battle. They form part of the support staff. Some of them are members of the cultural wings of the movement.
What has given the security forces further confidence to wipe out the Maoists movement before the deadline is that the top command is largely weakened. They are a demoralised lot today and are fighting the last leg of the battle.
The focus would largely now be around Battalion 1, which is headed by Madvi Hidma, a dreaded Maoist commander. A major chunk of the remaining Maoists is with him and hence the buildup is high around Battalion 1. The Hidma battalion is surrounded by thousands of security forces and they are waiting to take down this command. Taking down this command would reduce the remaining Maoist strength at least by 90 per cent.
The forces are confident that those part of the support staff will not join the battle. In addition to fighting them on the ground, the agencies are also trying to bring many remaining Maoists to the mainstream. Home Minister Shah had made it clear that the Maoists should surrender and if they do not wish to do so, then they will be wiped out.
The scenario post March 31 2026
While the Home Minister and the security forces are confident that they will wipe out by the movement by March 31, 2026, the establishment is also mindful of the fact that there is more left to be done.
While the top command and the remaining Maoists will either surrender or be eliminated there is always a lurking danger that attempts may be made to revive the movement. Intelligence Bureau officials tell Organiser that they expect sporadic incidents of violence post the 2026 deadline. One needs to be watchful of such incidents, the official added.
However, such incidents can be curbed as it would more of revenge acts. Such acts would be undertaken by Maoist sympathisers, but that too would be eventually die down.
The most important aspect posts the 2026 deadline would be to empower the people of the Maoist affected areas much more. Roads, water, electricity, education and other developmental works should continue unabated. This is important since any deprivation can be used by the pro- Maoist elements to get the villagers on their side.
The entire machinery is aware that development is the key to wiping out the movement completely. One of the major reasons why the Maoist movement collapsed like a pack of cards is because they started losing the support of the villagers.
The development is what impressed the villagers and this resulted in them backing out from the Maoist movement. Moreover, there came the realisation that the Maoists were only using them for information and as human shields. In reality, no development as promised by these Maoists came their way. In fact, they realised that backing the security forces is a better deal since a menace would end and there would development in the real sense.
Security officials are hopeful that better sense would prevail among the remaining Maoists and they would surrender. The agencies feel that they ought to realise that they are fighting a losing battle. While in 2024 over 300 Maoists have been gunned down, this year the number stands at 83. This is quite a large number of Maoists being gunned down in quick time considering the year 2025 has just begun.
