After 2014 there is a new surge in Muslim voting in India. Muslim voters across the country irrespective of the local, Assembly or Lok Sabha election vote in abundance. Even senior Congress party leaders like Kamal Nath and Shanker Sinh Vaghela had appealed to Muslim voters to vote up to 90 per cent or even to 100 per cent. Muslims irrespective of their gender votes in toto and up to their maximum. If we analyse the voting pattern of the Muslim dominated Lok Sabha and Assembly seats then their voting always remain at the top.
In Delhi, there is a major difference between the voting per cent in Lok Sabha and Assembly election.
Delhi
Assembly election 2013 66.02 per cent
2015 67.47 per cent
2020 62.82 per cent
Lok Sabha Poll 2014 65.10 per cent
2019 60.60 per cent
2024 58.69 per cent
The plus voters in Assembly election than that of the Lok Sabha completely go in favor of the AAP and the party wins the election.
In Delhi in Assembly elections the voting per cent on Muslim dominated seats always remain high. Before 2013 these seats were won by the Congress party while after that the AAP sweeps these seats. In Delhi high voter turnout in Muslim dominated seats in Delhi Assembly elections reflects the enthusiasm of Muslim voters and their eagerness to defeat the BJP. If we look at seats having high voting percentage in the Delhi Assembly elections in the last 2020 Assembly elections these seats are Matia Mahal, Ballimaran, Okhla, Seelampur, Babarpur and Mustafabad.All these are Muslim dominated Assembly seats. These seats are like an example for other Assembly seats of Delhi for high voting percentage. These seats have been in the headlines for maximum voting in almost every Assembly election.
In the 2020 assembly elections, these seats were ranked in terms of voting percentage
Seat Voting Percentage
Ballimaran 71.64
Seelampur 71.42
Gokalpur (SC) 70.92
Mustafabad 70.75
Matia Mahal 70.43
After the Aam Aadmi Party entered the electoral fray, the Muslim voters suddenly turned towards the Aam Aadmi Party leaving in lurch the Congress Party. A big change was seen in Muslim-dominated seats, where the Congress Party used to win elections by a huge margin from the BJP till 2013, the Congress Party has started losing its deposit badly on those seats.
The Congress Party has continuously won the Okhla assembly seat in the Assembly elections of 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013. But in the 2015 Assembly election, the Congress party not only lost the election from this seat but also slipped to the third position with one-third of its previous vote tally.
Shoaib Iqbal easily won the Matia Mahal Assembly seat, which is a part of Chandni Chowk Lok Sabha constituency, five times in a row since 1993 even from different parties. These parties include Janata Dal, Deve Gowda’s party Janata Dal (Secular), Janata Dal (United). But he lost the 2015 assembly election badly from this seat to Asim Ahmed Khan of Aam Aadmi Party. Then Shoaib Iqbal fought the 2020 election from Aam Aadmi Party and won the election by getting the highest 75.96 percent votes in all the seats of Delhi Assembly. In terms of percentage and total votes cast, Shoaib Iqbal got three times more votes in 2020 as compared to the 2015 election.
Senior Congress leader from Delhi, Harun Yusuf, won the Ballimaran Assembly seat elections five times in a row from 1993 to 2013 with significant margin of votes. But in 2015, Yusuf lost the election from his traditional seat to AAP’s Imran Hussain by a huge margin of votes. Harun Yusuf, who never lost an election from 1993 to 2013, lost even his deposit in the 2015 Assembly election. His vote percentage decreased by more than 22 percent. In the 2020 Assembly election, Harun Yusuf’s vote percentage declined even to less than five percent of the polled votes on the seat. Chaudhary Mateen Ahmed became MLA from Seelampur Assembly seat five times in a row since 1993. He won the election from Janata Dal in 1993, as an Independent in 1998 and then from the Congress party in 2003, 2008 and 2013 with a huge margin of votes. But in 2015 and 2020, he lost the elections badly to different candidates of Aam Aadmi Party. Chaudhary Mateen Ahmed lost his deposit in the last 2020 Assembly election.
Mustafabad Assembly seat was formed in the delimitation of 2008. In the first two Assembly elections, Hasan Ahmed of the Congress party won the election from this seat. But in 2015, the Congress party lost the election and in the 2020 Assembly elections, the vote percentage of the Congress party came down even to 2.89 percent.
Higher voting in Muslim-dominated seats in Delhi Assembly elections is not limited to this Union Territory only. Rather, higher voting in Muslim-dominated seats is a nationwide trend. In the last three Lok Sabha elections, Dhubri Lok Sabha seat of Assam has recorded the highest voting percentage of 88.36 in 2014, 90.66 in 2019 and 92.08 percent in 2024.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, four seats of Muslim-dominated Seemanchal were among the first four seats in the entire State in terms of voting percentage. These seats remain at the top in voting percentage in Bihar in every Lok Sabha election. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, these seats were Katihar, Supaul, Purnia and Kishanganj in the order of highest voting. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, Muslim-dominated Saharanpur was second and Amroha was fourth in terms of vote percentage. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Amroha was first in terms of vote percentage in Uttar Pradesh.
It is clear from these examples that the Muslim community is most active for their voting. After the rise of the BJP after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, they are voting even more aggressively. Dhubri Lok Sabha seat is a prime example of this where 76.31 per cent voting took place in 2009, while 88.36 per cent voting took place in 2014, 90.66 per cent in 2019 and 92.08 per cent in 2024. The 12 per cent jump in voting in 2014 as compared to 2009 is a big political signal.
Muslims vote tactically. On Rampur Lok Sabha seat in the by-poll the voting per cent was even dropped to less than half of 2019 LS poll to 31.30 per cent. The BJP won the by-poll. But again in 2024 LS election the voting percent was usual and the SP had won the seat like 2019.
Even in just concluded by-poll on Kundarki Assembly seat the polling per cent was reduced from 71.40 per cent in 2022 to 65.19 in the by-poll and the BJP won the seat.
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