Syrian President Bashar Assad fled the country after the rebels took Damascus in a swift operation. The rebels have hailed the fall as a moment of freedom after decades of pain and suffering.
New Delhi is keeping a close watch on the situation and analysing what effects this change in regime would have on the ties between the two countries.
On December 8, the rebels led by Abu Mohammad al-Jaloni, the head of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, brought an end to Assad’s regime. Following this, Assad was forced to flee the country and took shelter in Russia, according to the state media.
Ties with Bharat
Both Bharat and Syria have shared close ties. New Delhi has supported the Assad-led Syria on key international issues, including the Palestine cause and the country’s claim over the Golan Heights. Syria, on the other hand, has backed Bharat on the Kashmir issue on all international platforms.
Syria has witnessed a civil war since 2011, and New Delhi has always called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict through dialogue and non-military political process.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, New Delhi had called for a relaxation of sanctions against Syria on humanitarian grounds. After Syria rejoined the Arab League, Bharat renewed its bilateral ties with Damascus.
However, with the change in regime, New Delhi would tread the path carefully, with reports suggesting that Syria could become another Afghanistan. However, Bharat is confident that it would be able to tide over this as it did in the case of Afghanistan.
Bharat has been a key player in Afghanistan since the Taliban took over. It has successfully managed to reduce both the Chinese and Pakistan footprints in Kabul.
Officials tell Organiser that Jolani, who has been proscribed as a terrorist by the West, would rule differently. During the civil war, he was seen softening his hardline stance. Many in Syria have celebrated this victory and are hopeful that Joleni will take the country to new heights.
For now, New Delhi would adopt a wait-and-watch policy and see how things shape up in Syria. However, the Modi government is hopeful that Syria and Bharat would continue to share close ties despite the ouster of Assad.
New Delhi would also be cautious about its next moves as Iran, Turkey and Russia are key players in the region. To strike the right balance would be the key for New Delhi going ahead.
Dealing with the HTS
The key factor for Bharat to take into account is that it would have to deal with the HTS, which originated out of the Al-Qaeda. Going by the developments and according to analysts, the HTS may have originated from Al-Qaeda, but the approach is slightly different this time around.
The HTS has made its intention clear and that is it would focus more on nationalism rather than Jihad. Jaloni, too, has tried to assuage the fears of the minorities. He had told his soldiers on November 29, after the takeover of Aleppo, that his first priority was to protect the property and lives of the civilians and to, establish security and calm the fears of the people from all sects.
He also said that Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional in which no single ruler makes an arbitrary decision. Judge us by our actions, he had also said.
While these are words of encouragement, New Delhi and the rest of the world would still be cautious since the HTS does have a chequered history. The experts have described the HTS as political jihadists who are pragmatic and practical rather than Salafist jihadists who are fired by an ideology.
The HTS started out as a branch of the Islamic State’s predecessor, the Islamic State of Iraq. When ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi brought the outfit to Syria, Jolani did not approve of the same. He then cut ties and sides with the then-Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri.
However, three years later, Jolani shifted yet again and transitioned the HTS into fighting locally. While there were doubts about the capabilities of the HTS, in time it however managed to destroy the Islamic State’s presence in Syria. It also dismantled Al-Qaeda’s attempt to build a new branch in Suria called the Huras al-Din in June 2020.
New Delhi and Assad
In 2016, Syria under Assad reiterated that New Delhi has a right to resolve the Kashmir issue in any manner and without external assistance. Bharat’s engagement with Syria has been part of a broader strategy to enhance its presence and influence in the Middle East. New Delhi has provided Syria with significant development and humanitarian assistance.
During a visit by junior minister for external affairs, V Muraleedharan he announced scholarships for Syrian students to study in India. Additionally, New Delhi sent humanitarian aid to Syria following a deadly earthquake in 2023 as part of Operation Dost.
For several decades now, India has been investing in Syria’s infrastructure and development to strengthen bilateral ties. Bharat has two investments in Syria’s oil sector and has also extended a $240 million Line of Credit for a thermal project.
Between 2020 and 2023, the bilateral trade between the two nations was $100 million, while in 2024, it dropped to $80 million.
When Assad was in power, he had the complete backing of Iran and Russia. While Iran’s Hezbollah was busy with the war against Israel, the Russians are fighting the Ukrainians. This explains why Assad fell so easily, as two of the most important allies were fighting other wars and could not back him.
However with Iran out of the picture, Syria would witness more of Turkish dominance. All future engagements with Syria will now be shaped with a new dynamic as Turkey will be calling the shots. Turkey has been extremely critical of New Delhi on the Kashmir issue.
While only time would tell how the ties with Syria will shape out, Bharat would, however, leverage the fact that it is seen as an ally which is neutral to the politics of the country.
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