The Maharashtra Assembly election results will have repercussions way beyond the state. From Hindutva politics to reforms push, to alliance arithmetic, the outcome will determine the course and discourse of national politics. SIX BIG POINTS – Will decide fate of reforms, including Waqf Bill; Hindu consolidation with ‘Ek Hai Toh Safe’; BJP way ahead in direct fights with Congress; Congress loses negotiating muscle with allies; Mix of populist schemes and infra push.
Results of the recently held assembly
polls of Maharashtra surprised everybody including the electorate and the seasoned pollsters. Main reason is, in the Lok Sabha polls whose results came in the month of June 2024, the ‘Mahayuti’ comprising of the BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP, received a huge setback when the total number of seats were reduced to 17.
Juxtaposed with the current tally of 235 assembly seats, people are interested to know what transformation has taken place which instrumentalised this monumental change.
In the Nov 2024, Assembly Elections. the final seats tally being – BJP 132; Shiv Sena 57; NCP 41 and Others 5. This makes it a total of 235 seats out of 288. Thus, the share of Mahayuti seats is 81.5 per cent of total assembly seats in Maharashtra Assembly. Major reasons for the huge change in the electoral choice are as per following.
Firstly, the BJP slogan, “Abki Baar 400 Paar” brought complacency in the core cadre and at the same time gave an excuse to the opposition led by the Congress party that the BJP wants brute majority in the parliament because it wants to amend the constitution and trample upon the rights of the backwards.
Secondly, Rahul Gandhi made a promise of ₹8500 direct transfer to women which brought large number of voters to vote for his party. It is another matter that if the scheme had to be implemented, it would have emptied the treasure of the Government of Bharat
To counter both the onslaughts of the opposition, the Mahayuti led by the BJP convinced the electorate that the constitution is sacrosanct for it and if any danger to it is probable, it is from the Congress party which in the past also, especially during the tenure of Indira Gandhi, had amended it on umpteen number of times.
Cash sops promise of the Congress party was countered with a master stroke scheme of “Ladki Bahin”. To infuse confidence among the voters, three installments of ₹1500 per month were transferred in the accounts of the beneficiaries before elections itself.
The BJP has very successfully implemented its social engineering programme; the OBC constitute the largest chunk among the population and it has made meaningful inroads in the said segment.
Like in Haryana, Jats despite being only 22 percent of the population, traditionally had been calling the shots but the BJP brought numerically superior OBC under its umbrella and won third consecutive elections in the said state.
In Maharashtra, in the Lok Sabha elections, Marathas majorly voted for the Maha Vikas Aghadi because the BJP was seen to be siding with the OBC. However, in the assembly elections the said party along with the allies Shiv Sena and NCP fielded those Maratha candidates, in the Maratha dominated constituencies, who had remarkable personal rapport with the voters and won because of their individual track records and reputation.
Muslims had been a hugely effective factor in the Lok Sabha elections. One can prolifically watch Muslim Ulemas acknowledging on YouTube videos that they are beneficiaries of all the schemes launched by the Government of Bharat, yet, they won’t vote for the BJP.
Hindus have started viewing Muslims as running anti-development agenda in Bharat. One apt example can be given of the Mumbai North-central parliamentary constituency. Given the track record of Ujjawal Nikam, he should have won hands down even if he had contested as an independent candidate.
However, he lost because he was fielded by the BJP and despite registering lead in all the Hindu dominated assembly segments, he faced one sided onslaught of antagonism in the Muslim dominated segments.
Two slogans, “Batenge Toh Katenge” and “Ek Hain Toh Safe Hain” consolidated the Hindu voters like never before. Higher percentage of voting stands testimony to the effect of the aforesaid slogans. As the electoral data shows there is always high percentage of voting in the Muslim areas and low in the Hindu ones; therefore, 4 percent more statewide polling proves Hindus came out in great numbers and unitedly voted for the parties espousing Hindutva cause.
Between the two Senas, during the Lok Sabha elections, the one led by Uddhav Thackeray successfully exploited the sympathy factor and accused the one led by Shinde of betraying the son of Late Bal Thackeray. However, in the assembly elections, Sena led by Shinde turned the tables on Uddhav and convinced the electorate that it is the original flag bearer of the Hindutva ideology of Late Bal Thackeray and Uddhav Sena by aligning with the Congress and Sharad Pawar led NCP, has abandoned the philosophy of Hindutva.
Last but not the least, the RSS factor became greatly instrumental in consolidating the Hindutva voters. The organisation is globally acknowledged for its dedicated and disciplined cadre.
Normally, it remains absorbed in the social programmes run by its frontline organisations and leaves electoral politics to be managed by the BJP.
However. when it became apparent that the opposition parties are trying to unleash their narrow caste-based divisive agenda and will try to derail the upcoming WAQF and UCC bills, the organisation came in the field with all the guns blazing and hugely contributed in the electoral campaign and performed excellent booth management.
Results of the Maharashtra state elections will go a long way to bolster the development agenda of the NDA government led by Narendra Modi.
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