There has been an increase in the number of terror-related incidents in Jammu and Kashmir since the elections were held. The elections were held for the first time following the abrogation of Article 370 and J&K being declared a Union Territory.
The question that arises is why the attacks suddenly shot up. The answer to this could lie in the fact that the deep state in Pakistan is in overdrive mode to ensure that there shall be no normalcy in J&K.
Recently, at a press conference, Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb spoke about the normalisation of relations with India. He said that not trading with your neighbours, particularly India, does not make any sense. The remarks were made at a press conference in Washington. He however was quick to clarify that political and geo-political issues were beyond his purview. He said that any movement towards normalisation with India would require the involvement of the members of the deep-state.
Following the visit by External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar to Islamabad to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation conclave, there were reports in the Pakistan media signalling that there would be normalisation in ties. Further, it was speculated that this visit would also pave the way for Pakistan’s membership in the BRICS, a decision that has been on hold since August 2023.
However, exactly the opposite happened, and the number of terror strikes only increased in J&K, thus signalling that there is a deep state in Pakistan which does not wish for any normalisation in ties. Nearly 10 persons, including Army officials, have been killed by Pakistan-based terrorists. Some of the most audacious attacks took place when terrorists struck a two-truck Army convoy in Gulmarg, which resulted in the death of Army Army porters and two soldiers. Further, seven persons were killed by terrorists in Ganderbal at a construction site.
It was clear that the terrorists involved in these attacks had trained in Pakistan and had entered India from the launch pads that had been set up in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Typical of the deep state
These attacks came at a time when there were signals that there would be a thaw in the tensions between the two countries. This is, however, not the first time that Pakistan has upped the ante in J&K. There have been many instances in the past as well. It took place when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister. One may recall that Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprise visit to Pakistan a few years back after taking over the top post for the first time in 2014. The visit was aimed at strengthening ties, but Pakistan responded almost immediately by carrying out an attack in Pathankot.
This is typical of the Pakistan deep-state, which has always controlled the relations between India and Pakistan. However, this deep state does not act on its own. There are several global non-Pakistani groups as well that fund such campaigns against India. The role of the Soros group, which has actively funded anti-India activities, can also not be ruled out. The idea is to ensure as many cross-border incursions into India and then strike.
This helps the deep-state control the narrative and ensure that such acts clearly align with their strategic objectives. Another way of looking at the involvement of the deep state is by examining how attacks in J&K are carried out to draw global attention. Pakistan has been begging the world to intervene in the Kashmir dispute as it sees it as an unresolved issue. However, India has maintained Kashmir belongs to India and will always remain India’s internal matter.
The proxies at war
Pakistan has for long followed a strategy of deniability. Every act of terror it carries out in India has been denied by Islamabad. Take, for instance, the Mumbai 26/11 attack. The ten terrorists had sported saffron bands so that it could have passed off as an attack carried out by the Hindus. Helping the cause of the Pakistan deep-state are some within India.
In the aftermath of the Mumbai 26/11 attacks, there were books describing it as a Hindu conspiracy. Further, there were some who insisted that Hemant Karkare, the head of the Maharashtra ATS, was killed by a Hindu and not the Pakistani terrorists. Karkare is the same officer who filed one false case after another to frame Hindus and coin the term Hindu terror. However, Ajmal Kasab’s confession buried all those theories after he narrated how he was trained and launched from Pakistan.
Using proxies such as the Lashkar-e-Tayiba or Jaish-e-Mohammad has been a strategy of the deep state for a long. Even during the Kargil war, Pakistan did initially try to pass it off as a war being fought not by its soldiers, but by terror groups. All these attempts are made to divert the attention and also have a deniability factor so that Pakistan could cry foul with the international community.
While many within Pakistan want to move on and have normal ties with India, the deep state will hear nothing of that. It has created monsters such as Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar. They need to be kept happy, and for that, they see a free hand to go about striking in India. The deep state does not object to it and allows them to carry as it fears that subduing these terror groups would mean that they could turn against the establishment sometime. A classic example of this is the Tehreek-e-Taliban, a breakaway faction of the Afghanistan Taliban. This group has turned against the establishment and focuses all its resources on striking Pakistan. It is not just in J&K; the deep state has interests in Bangladesh as well. It has several proxies working there, such as the Jamaat-e-Islami, which have directed their attacks on Hindus. Further, Pakistan has sponsored a mass infiltration drive into the Indian side with the intention of disrupting communal harmony and changing demographics.
Pressure building up
It is a known fact that Pakistan is in the doldrums thanks to its economic crisis. There is growing pressure from the people of Pakistan for the leadership to act. They would prefer an economic solution to their problems rather than have the funds spent on funding proxies against India. There is a lot of pressure on the Pakistani Army, ISI and its chief, General Asim Munir. The pressure on the deep state is being exerted by the people, political class and others. To bounce off this pressure from themselves, the deep state has approved a series of attacks in Jammu and Kashmir. This, according to them, would change the narrative in India. They feel that India has achieved nothing post the abrogation of Article 370, and the decision to do so has only resulted in more violence in the Union Territory. This is the narrative that they want to set in Pakistan so that the real questions are diverted elsewhere.
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