The by-poll in Wayanad in Kerala is going to witness interesting political twists. The seat fell vacant due to Rahul Gandhi’s resignation. Rahul Gandhi was MP from the seat in the previous Lok Sabha. In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, Rahul Gandhi contested from two seats, Amethi and Wayanad and lost in the former.
This time, Rahul Gandhi won the Rae Bareli and Wayanad Lok Sabha seats. Rahul Gandhi opted for the former and resigned from the latter. Rahul Gandhi took advantage of the election schedule in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Wayanad was voted in the second phase, while Rae Bareli was voted in 5th phase. After the voting in Wayanad, the notification for Rae Bareli’s seat was announced. Until the voting in the second phase in Wayanad, Rahul Gandhi had not clearly indicated his intention to contest from another seat, either in Amethi or in Rae Bareli.
The voters of Wayanad are not at all satisfied with the Gandhi family due to the ill-treatment meted out to them by the family. Wayanad stood by Rahul Gandhi during the crisis in 2019 when Amethi didn’t. Even then, he resigned from the Wayanad seat, which was surprising for the voters of the seat. The voters of Wayanad will likely view Priyanka Gandhi as Rahul Gandhi’s proxy and may not show the same enthusiasm for voting for the family as they did in 2019 and 2024.
Like Rahul Gandhi, his mother also resigned from the Bellary Lok Sabha seat in Karnataka in 1999, when she won both Amethi and Bellary seats. His grandmother, Indira Gandhi, won two seats of Rae Bareli and Medak in 1980 and opted for the latter seat.
Rahul Gandhi resigned from Wayanad has multiple angles. Rahul Gandhi was blackmailed by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a constituent of the United Democratic Front (UDF). The IUML is the second biggest constituent of the UDF in Kerala. The party brings sizable Muslim votes to the UDF. Wayanad Lok Sabha seat has 7 Assembly seats and on two ACs are the IUML bastion. These seats are Eranad and Nilambur in Malappuram district. The Congress party candidate cannot win from the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat without the active support of the IUML. In the 2019 LS poll, in lieu of its support to Gandhi family scion Rahul Gandhi, the IUML unceremoniously got the Ramnanthpuram Lok Sabha seat in Tamil Nadu. The IUML had no prior record of contesting for the seat.
Another reason for Rahul Gandhi to leave the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat is the declining performance of the Congress party in the Assembly election in Kerala. In the 2021 Assembly election in Kerala, the Congress party contested 93 seats within the UDF alliance, but the party won only 21 seats. This was the worst performance of the Congress party in the Kerala Assembly election since 1982. In 1982, the Congress party won 20 seats by contesting 36 seats under its quota within the UDF alliance. In 2021, the Congress party won only 21 seats by contesting 93 seats. So was the disastrous performance of the Congress party in Kerala. In the 2021 Assembly election in Kerala, the IUML contested only 25 seats and won 15 seats. The strike rate of the IUML was 60 per cent, while that of the Congress party was 23 per cent only. It is certain that the IUML and other constituents of the UDF will demand more seats in the 2026 Assembly election in Kerala at the cost of the Congress party.
Considering such performance, we cannot rule out the possibility that the IUML may demand more seats in the 2026 Assembly elections besides the post of Chief Minister. Being an MP from the State Priyanka Gandhi, I will have to cope with the demands of the IUML and other constituents.
In such pitiable conditions, it was becoming tough for Rahul Gandhi to remain an MP in Wayanad. In the coming days, it’s going to become tougher for the Congress party to retain Wayanad Lok Sabha’s seat. So, in order to secure his Lok Sabha seat, Rahul Gandhi resigned from Wayanad.
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