Politics are in the air in the Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory (JKUT) since the declaration of the assembly elections schedule by the Election Commission in mid- August. The elections will be held in three phases on September 18, 25, and October 1, with vote counting on October 4.
The last elected government in Jammu and Kashmir fell in June 2018, when the BJP withdrew support from the PDP-led government, leading to Governor’s and later President’s rule. The region, therefore, is witnessing election after six years and for the first time as a Union Territory, a status that it attained in 2019 due to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill, 2019.
The Assembly seats have also witnessed a change due to the much awaited delimitation exercise carried out in mid-2022. Now, there is more balance in the Jammu and the Kashmir regions with 47 seats going to Kashmir and 43 to Jammu. Of these, 7 seats have been reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates which are mainly in the Jammu region and 9 seats have been reserved to Scheduled Tribes which are mainly in the Kashmir region.
The Kashmir Region
Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, who represent the tallest political families in Kashmir had vowed not to participate in the election process till full statehood of the region is not restored. Now, Omar has taken a complete U-turn and is contesting not only one but two seats, Ganderbal and Budgam, while Mehbooba has launched her daughter, Iltija Mufti, into the fray for Bijbehara.
The National Conference has cemented its alliance with the Congress party and a few other entities. The seat sharing is, National Conference (56); Congress (38); Communist Party of India. Marxist (01); and Panthers Party (01).
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is undoubtedly at its lowest ebb politically and has not got into any coalition. Probably nobody has given it an invite. The party, however, is attempting to position itself as a Kingmaker in the eventuality of a hung verdict. In this, it has stated that it will support a non-BJP coalition which translates into a leaning towards the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) whose members are contesting the polls as independents.
PDP has always held a soft corner for such radicalised elements. It is no wonder that Iltija Mufti has not only welcomed the decision of the Jamaat to contest elections but has also welcomed the release of Engineer Rashid, despite his consistent attacks on the party leadership.
The newly emerged electoral power centres in Kashmir are the new parties and the radical elements. The Kashmir Apni Party raised by Altaf Bukhari has expressed an intention to fight from 60 seats which would cover both regions.
The Democratic Progressive Azad (DPAP) Party is looking at about 13 seats. The electoral strategy of DPAP is not very clear since its leader, Ghulam Nabi Azad, had earlier declined from campaigning and quoted health reasons for the same. Now, within a few days, he has declared himself fit for campaigning.
Sajjad Gani Lone of the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference is contesting only one seat.
Buoyed by his success in the Parliamentary Elections, Engineer Rashid, who has been released from jail on interim bail, is working to increase the signature of his Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).
The aforementioned elements are posing a serious challenge to the traditional mainstream parties in Kashmir like the NC, PDP and the Congress. While the political contest in Kashmir is multi-cornered, the agenda of all parties and contestants is the same. They are, above all else, promising the ushering of a pre- 2019, Article 370 enabled status quo in the region. They are also promising full statehood. The remaining parts of their manifesto are cosmetic in nature.
The grant of full statehood is a commitment of the Government of India which Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also promised in his first election rally in Doda. A roll back to the status-quo of 2019 is constitutionally not feasible, something that the people of Kashmir understand quite well.
Kashmir has a very evolved and intelligent electorate, the people come out to vote in large numbers as will probably be the case in this election also. Sadly, the people are saddled with a leadership that is bereft of ideas or achievable objectives. In the resultant “There is No Alternative” (TINA) factor, the choice may well fall upon such candidates upon whom the voters have confidence of at least looking into the local issues.
This apart, with the realisation that none has much to offer, the people may select one group above the other and vote for the same to ensure that there is some coordination in the government. The national trend is to give a chance to new faces and new organisations. Some who are standing as representatives of the new parties or as independents do have the confidence of the people. In case they find favour, the NC-Congress combine as well as the PDP could well be decimated in totality.
The Jammu Region
The Jammu region has two main players – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. Unlike Kashmir this region will predominantly witness one to one contests. The BJP is expected to contest 62 seats (43 in the Jammu region and 19 in Kashmir) as against 38 by the Congress. It is so because the Congress is in coalition while the BJP is fighting independently. The considerable presence in Kashmir by the BJP is perceived as a strategic move to accrue short term as well as long-term benefits
The BJP, in the 2014 assembly elections, had considerably improved upon its performance and had given its best result in J&K. In 2014 the BJP had swept the Hindu heartland of the Jammu region by winning 19 of the 24 seats. Its vote share tripled from 15 percent to 46 percent. In the Muslim-majority hill districts of the Jammu region, the BJP won six of the 13 seats. Overall, the BJP won 25 out of the 83 seats and became part of a coalition government with the PDP. When seen in the post-delimitation scenario, this would roughly translate into 29 seats.
The people of Jammu region have often complained about step-motherly treatment by the Lieutenant Governor led government of the JKUT. An arbitrary allocation of tickets has also caused some heartburn. The people also feel that the abrogation of Article 370 has brought upon them more social and economic challenges than those faced by the valley. These factors have considerably impacted the election prospects of the BJP in the present scenario.
There are, however, a few factors that will ensure support to the BJP in the Jammu region. First, the huge nationalist sentiment that marks the commitment of the region to national integration and security. Second, a realisation of the diabolical agenda that all contestants in Kashmir as well as the Congress are pursuing, especially with their call for votes on the platform of a roll-back of Article 370. There are many segments of society like the West Pakistan refugees, Valmiki Samaj, women, Gujjars and Paharis etc. who have benefited tremendously from the abrogation of Article 370. They are strongly against all talk of a roll back.
These aspects will have a strong positive impact. The people of the Jammu region are well aware that, as a bottom line, only the BJP will stand up for the interest of the region against all attacks upon their identity and security. This builds a TINA factor in favour of the BJP.
Overall, it is quite clear that the BJP will emerge as the party with a clear majority in the Jammu region. Possibly it will emerge as the party with the highest number of seats in the final results even if it does fall short of a majority.
Conclusion
The election is generating considerable enthusiasm. Social media is rife with speculation about the result even as all eyes of the conventional media are homed in on the sensitive region.
People have expressed a clear preference for governance by elected representatives rather than central rule. Voting percentages, therefore, will be high and the result will probably be conclusive.
Electioneering on ideology and logic is likely to gain more acceptance than the traditional means of attracting votes. The calls for Aazadi (freedom) and autonomy have long since been replaced with pragmatism.
All political parties have joined hands with the single point agenda to defeat the BJP. The people have seen the decimation of the I.N.D.I Alliance post the parliamentary elections and understand that these opportunistic affiliations from Kashmir will not give them a stable government.
The scenario has been well summed up by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his election speech in Doda where he said, “These elections are going to decide the fate of J&K. Since Independence, our J&K has been targeted by foreign powers. Terrorism is now counting its last days in J&K. The upcoming elections will decide the UT’s future.”
There is no doubt that the people understand the seriousness of the situation and will not only cast their vote but will do so with due consideration of all factors. There is a possibility of the traditional regional division of the votes being set aside for a more inclusive merit based choice. Such a verdict will change the course of history in JKUT.
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