Smaller and newer parties are going to play an important role in the ensuing Jammu & Kashmir Assembly election. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, under a defined strategy, the BJP did not put candidates on three seats in Kashmir Valley. The BJP’s real intention was to give a chance to new and smaller parties to grow in Kashmir Valley. In the case of national parties in the fray, it’s tough or as likely as impossible for smaller and newer parties to strengthen their roots. In Jammu & Kashmir, there are multiple smaller and newer parties. These parties assessed the ground reality in J&K UT under changed circumstances. By taking lessons from the Lok Sabha election, these parties will chalk out their strategy and implement it in this round of Assembly elections.
Since these newer and smaller parties have their base in Kashmir Valley, these parties will create problems for mainly the National Conference and the Jammu & Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Since these two parties are the main players in the Kashmir Valley so, these parties are perplexed and trying to even raise such controversial and sentimental issues to douse down the effect of these parties.
Besides these State parties, for the first time, the Aam Aadmi Party is also going to contest the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly election. The Congress-NC alliance did not try to bring the AAP into its fold. Besides AAP, Ghulam Nabi Azad’s newly formed Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) is also trying its luck. It’s likely that the DPAP will cut into the vote base of the Congress party. It is known to the masses of Jammu & Kashmir that due to shabby treatment by the Gandhi family, Ghulam Nabi Azad was forced to leave the party. The exit of Azad was also demonstrated in the poor performance of the Congress party in the 2024 LS election. The Congress party did not venture to contest from three seats of Kashmir Valley after the desertion of Azad. The sympathy factor for the son of soil factor for Ghulam Nabi Azad may cost dearly for the Congress party in the Assembly election.
The role of AAP, DPAP, Jammu & Kashmir People’s Movement, Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference, and Jammu & Kashmir Apni Party is highly critical as in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly election, dozens of seats are decided by a small margin and on such seats these parties will play an important role.
It’s also important that all these parties are contesting and trying their luck, mainly in Kashmir Valley. Kashmir Valley is known for PDP and NC strongholds.
The confidence level of the Abdullah and Mufti families is at the lowest ebb due to the massive defeat of Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti from Baramulla and Anantnag-Rajouri LS seats, respectively, in the 2024 LS election. Omar Abdullah is suspicious of his own prospect on his familiar traditional seat of Ganderbal, while Mehbooba Mufti is suspicious of her daughter Iltija Mufti’s prospect on the Srigufwara–Bijbehara Assembly seat.
The tactical decision of the BJP not to contest on three seats of Kashmir Valley was a masterstroke and is now paying dividends. The BJP gave smaller parties a chance to contest and assess their strength during the Lok Sabha election 2024. If the BJP had contested the three seats of Kashmir Valley, then the smaller parties would have found it tough to assess their strength. Now, due to the strengthening of smaller parties in Kashmir Valley, the NC (National Conference) is forced to forge an alliance with the Congress party.
In the 2014 Assembly election, ten seats were decided by a margin of less than 1000 votes, while 36 seats were decided by less than 3000 votes. So, even a small vote share may change the political scenario in the UT of Jammu & Kashmir. Tactical scenario in the UT of Jammu & Kashmir.
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