The Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) is consistently increasing its presence and strength in Jammu & Kashmir. If we analyse the journey of the BJP in the erstwhile State of Jammu & Kashmir, then we find that the BJP’s strength has increased like many other States and UTs. In the 1987 Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP won two seats by contesting 29. The BJP increased its seat tally and vote share in all Assembly elections, barring the 2002. In the 2014 Assembly election, the BJP won 25 seats. In the 2014 Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP gathered the highest vote share, but in several seats, the People’s Democratic Front got the highest, 28 seats, due to the First Past the Post electoral system.
The political scenario has changed after changing the status of Jammu & Kashmir from State to Union Territory and the creation of the UT of Ladakh.
After delimitation, the total seats in the assembly rose to 114 seats, of which 24 are designated for areas that fall under Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Of the remaining 90 seats, 43 are in the the Jammu division, and 47 are in the Kashmir division. This is an increase of 7 seats from its erstwhile Jammu & Kashmir Union Territory with its previous seat distribution. 6 seats are added in the Jammu region. In contrast, one seat is increased in Kashmir valley.
The BJP’s main strength in UT of Jammu & Kashmir derives from the Jammu region. In the 2014 Assembly election in the erstwhile State of Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP won 25 seats and was a runner on seven seats. The BJP had a direct stake in 32 seats in 2014. The BJP is all set to improve its performance in this Assembly poll with its 2014 poll performance.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP established a lead on 29 Assembly Constituencies. The BJP was ahead of the Congress Party and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The Congress party established a lead on 7 ACs, while the PDP established a lead on only 5 Assembly Constituencies. Even in the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP also established a lead on 29 Assembly Constituencies. At the same time, the Congress party’s performance has deteriorated in 2024 concerning its performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The Congress party leading in Assembly segments in Lok Sabha elections in the number of seats had decreased from 16 seats in 2019 to only seven in 2024.
Such performance of the Congress party will be a big challenge for the National Conference to allocate seats to contest in the 2024 Assembly election in alliance.
The formation of Ladakh as a separate Union Territory, while seemingly reducing the BJP’s power, actually demonstrates the party’s unwavering commitment to the welfare of the country and its people, rather than its own interests.
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