NEW DELHI: The recent upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation, has ignited intense debate over its implications for democracy, regional stability, and international politics. Critics argue that this crisis is part of a broader pattern of American interventionism and geopolitical maneuvering.
Sheikh Hasina’s resignation on August 5, 2024, after a dramatic series of events, has left many questioning the future of Bangladesh. Hasina, a stalwart of minority rights, had been a central figure in maintaining a precarious balance between democracy and extremism. Her departure has resulted in increased violence against the Hindus and the minorities. A recent report from Dhaka University warns that, if current trends continue, the minority population especially the Hindus in Bangladesh could disappear within three decades.
The political instability in Bangladesh is viewed by some as a manifestation of what critics describe as the “CIA playbook”—a strategy often associated with American foreign policy. This supposed playbook involves:
- Mobilizing Protests: Initiate demonstrations, often using student groups, to challenge the current government.
- Creating a Narrative: Use media to shape a narrative around human rights abuses.
Escalating Conflict: Engineer violent confrontations with security forces to justify further action. - Legal and Political Maneuvering: Utilize judicial and political mechanisms to exacerbate the crisis.
- Military Involvement: Gain military support for the protestors under the guise of serving the people.
- Toppling the Government: Ultimately, force the resignation of the sitting administration.
The crisis began to unfold in earnest on May 23, when Sheikh Hasina claimed that foreign powers had tried to coerce her into allowing a military airbase in Bangladesh. She suggested that these forces were plotting to carve out a new country from Bangladesh, likening the scenario to East Timor. Hasina’s remarks, while controversial, reflected her perception of an international conspiracy against her government.
The former prime minister said that conspiracies were being hatched to topple her government and that she might have to face the same consequences her father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, had faced, a daily reported.
Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated on August 15, 1975, along with most of his family members except for his two daughters, including Sheikh Hasina who was out of the country at that time. However, her claim of a conspiracy to topple her government has come true.
On June 5, a High Court ruling reinstated government job reservations that had been previously cancelled. This sparked protests from students, who clashed violently with security forces on July 16. The violence led to a ten-day internet shutdown and severe unrest. Despite a Supreme Court ruling on July 21 that reduced the reservation quota from 30 per cent to 5 per cent the crisis continued to escalate.
By August 4, former Army Chief General Ikbal Karim Bhuiyan publicly condemned the government’s handling of the protests and called for the withdrawal of troops. On August 5, anti-government protests, now organised into a “Long March to Dhaka,” demanded Hasina’s resignation. The Army Chief issued an ultimatum for Hasina to resign within 45 minutes. Hasina complied, leaving the country under unclear circumstances.
This raises a question: What does the US gain out of all this? If chaos and anarchy are the objectives, then it has hit the bull’s eye.
The aftermath of Hasina’s resignation raises significant geopolitical questions. The US State Department’s endorsement of the interim government has been met with scepticism. Critics argue that the US may have ulterior motives, potentially aiming to create chaos and undermine regional stability. This theory suggests that by destabilising Bangladesh, the US could be attempting to distract India, particularly in light of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Moscow on the day of NATO’s 75th anniversary celebrations.
The potential rise of Pakistan’s influence in Bangladesh is a concern for India. The notion that Bangladesh might fall into the sphere of influence of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and, by extension, China, adds another layer of complexity. China’s dissatisfaction with Hasina’s India-first policy and her abrupt cancellation of a visit to China have heightened these concerns.
For India, the situation in Bangladesh presents a significant strategic challenge. The potential for increased instability in neighbouring Bangladesh could impact West Bengal and the sensitive Northeast region. Observers suggest that India should be vigilant for any similar tactics being used domestically, such as orchestrated protests and unrest, which might be aimed at destabilising its current administration.
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