The return of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a third consecutive time despite a reduced mandate marks a pivotal moment in India’s geopolitical strategy. Additionally, the continuity of Cabinet positions with the External Affairs Minister and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval retaining their posts, underscores India’s unwavering foreign policy stance, particularly towards China.
The Sino-Indian relations under PM Modi are evolving. Sensing an opportunity in Modi’s narrower mandate China has escalated its aggressive rhetoric. Despite Nehru’s longstanding adherence to the One China Policy since 2008, causing discomfort in Beijing. The ongoing four-year standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has further solidified India’s resolve to counter Chinese aggression.
Relations between India and China appear frosty as Modi begins his third term. While global leaders swiftly congratulated Modi on his coalition government, Xi Jinping’s delayed response, conveyed through his foreign ministry spokesperson and later the Chinese premier, starkly contrasted with previous terms, highlighting the growing rift between the two leaders.
The newly elected Taiwanese President extended congratulations to Modi on social media, to which Modi responded with diplomatic caution avoiding terms like President, Taiwan and Indo-Pacific. This interaction though restrained marked the first public engagement between leaders of India and Taiwan signalling a subtle yet bold move by PM Modi.
Beijing officially and immediately protested India’s engagement with Taiwanese president and then with Global Times, the official newspaper of the CCP, warned that Modi’s actions could make India pay a price. Nonetheless, Modi 3.0 appears committed to maintaining strategic approach towards China evidenced by the retention of the key ministers and ongoing military buildup at the Himalayan borders.
A week after Modi’s swearing in, reports emerged of his administration preparing a stronger stance against Chinese aggression by reigniting the Tibet independence debate. The Indian government has approved the renaming of 30 places in Tibet which includes 12 mountains, 11 villages and a lake based on old Tibetan names sourced from historical texts.
This move is not seen by experts as merely tit for tat response to China’s nomenclature of renaming Arunachal Pradesh, but sees it as well researched effort to assert historical, genetic and cultural ties with reference taken from original Tibetan and Indian texts. Historically, India and Tibet were peaceful neighbours with stronger cultural, genetic and religious connections and serving as a buffer between the two countries until it was forcibly annexed by the Chinese in 1950.
This new development could garner global support and signifies India’s strategic shift from its adherence of the One China Policy, a move which will certainly provoke China. Under Modi’s leadership, India has become a significant challenger to Chinese aggression, not only in the LAC but also in wider Indo-Pacific Region.
China now faces a delicate balancing act between potential hostility and diplomatic engagement evidenced by lack of Xi’s congratulatory dialogues to India’s new government and Global Times soft urge to India to send positive signals towards improving Sino-Indian relations, but maintains that the bilateral ties cannot progress as long as the border standoff is unresolved. This deadlock poses a strategic dilemma for China as backing down could embolden India in other areas of bilateral relations.
The recent visit of a US delegation to India after the US Congress passed the bill Resolve Tibet Act included a meeting with Dalai Lama underscores active stance of India despite understanding the sensitivities involved particularly for India given its extensive border with China. Unsurprisingly the strong protest and criticism from China was immediate and called this act an interference in its internal matters.
India’s recent strategic moves and the US planned visit with India’s agreement indicate a delicate opening of the Tibet Front to distract China from Taiwan. The inclusion of Nancy Pelosi in the US delegation visiting the Dalai Lama highlights the intensifying focus on Tibet.
China’s aggressive response to former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan in 2022 sparked tensions following Pelosi departure, China initiated military exercises encircling Taiwan leading to a frosty phase in US-China relations and without any surprise similar response can be anticipated in the future, and India’s willingness to let USA use its territory for this theatre demonstrates its assertiveness to counter Chinese aggression. Now, the focus shifts to China’s reaction, as the stakes are high for India. However, whatever the outcome, it will be potentially critical for regional dynamics.
India is strategically employing a systematic approach to challenge the One China policy. This includes reigniting Tibet’s non-violent independence movement on the global stage, coinciding with the U.S. delegation’s visit and their agreement to meet the Dalai Lama on Indian soil. However, the moves are warmly being welcomed by Tibetans in India.
India’s strategic shift signals a refusal to be intimidated and readiness to challenge China’s ambitions through diplomacy and global partnerships. This move could recalibrate regional power dynamics, positioning India as a pivotal player in fostering stability and advocating for oppressed regions like Tibet, while also expanding its diplomatic space with Taiwan.
The global reaction will be crucial in determining the success of this strategy. If major powers and international organizations back these actions, it could lead to a significant diplomatic victory for New Delhi. Conversely, a lukewarm response might necessitate a reassessment of India’s approach.
Ultimately, India’s decision to spotlight Tibet’s independence movement is a calculated maneuver to counter China’s aggression on a broader scale, with the potential for substantial diplomatic gains.
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