Narendra Modi is set to become the first incumbent prime minister to return to office for a third consecutive term since Jawahar Lal Nehru’s third term in 1962. In 2019, he became the first prime minister to return with a majority since Indira Gandhi’s achievement 48 years prior.
While the BJP, aided by the NDA, is poised to form the government, it will do so with a weakened mandate, marking a return to coalition politics after a decade-long hiatus.
This situation will require Modi to navigate the complexities of governing with a diverse set of allies, a challenge he has faced before in states like Karnataka, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, and Maharashtra.
The weakened mandate reflects the resilience of India’s democracy and its institutions. It demonstrates that India is not sliding into authoritarianism, as democratic leaders, like Modi, willingly subject themselves to public scrutiny.
Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and global conflicts, Modi’s personal credibility remains a significant asset. The BJP’s vote share has held steady, indicating that it remains the first choice for voters across India.
The BJP’s performance in the 2024 election shows both strengths and weaknesses. It has made significant gains in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Kerala, but has lost ground in its traditional strongholds of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.
This election marks the first time since 1989 that a national party leading a third front has achieved a double-digit vote share and finished as a runner-up in nine seats in Tamil Nadu. This indicates that the dissatisfaction with the BJP was confined to specific regions. In the absence of a dominant national issue, local factors significantly influenced the outcomes in these areas.
The loss of support among the depressed classes in the Hindi heartland suggests that the BJP needs to introspect on its strategies and policies.
Simultaneously, the BJP may have also eroded its own cadre’s goodwill. By prioritising “winnability above all,” the party significantly lowered the entry-level threshold, leading to the inclusion of leaders with little in common with the BJP’s ideological stance or the Sangh’s cultural outlook. This move may have dampened the morale of BJP workers and Sangh cadre, potentially affecting their campaign efforts.
Additionally, the party may need to reassess its approach to cadre morale and the integration of new leaders.
The 2024 election was more than just a contest between leaders; it was a battle of ideologies and visions for India. The outcome, while historic, serves as a reminder of the challenges of governing with a diverse coalition and the importance of addressing local grievances and maintaining ideological coherence.
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