The outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has left many in shock throughout the nation, as nearly all exit polls failed to accurately predict the mandate given by the people. Unexpected results emerged in states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu. However, some states such as Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Delhi, and Uttarakhand followed the anticipated path, with Madhya Pradesh being particularly notable for finally breaching the so-called fortress of Congress leader Kamal Nath, ‘Chhindwara.’ The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is clearly on its way to a sweeping victory, securing all 29 seats in the state.
Chhindwara has been a Congress stronghold since 1952, with the exception of a single loss in 1997 when former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Sundar Lal Patwa narrowly defeated Kamal Nath. Since 1980, Nath has consistently held the seat, even amidst the Modi wave in 2014 and 2019.
However, a closer look reveals that the winning margins do not reflect Kamal Nath’s stature, indicating the BJP’s persistent efforts to breach his fortress. In 2019, Nath’s son and incumbent MP from Chhindwara, Nakul Nath, narrowly defeated the BJP candidate, Natan Shah, by 37,563 votes. This was a significant decrease from the 2014 elections, where the BJP candidate trailed by nearly 1 lakh votes.
Organiser, who had been on-ground and also met with BJP candidate Vivek Bunty Sahu prior to the polling in Chhindwara, had predicted that the BJP would indeed clinch the seat this time. With current trends in hand, Sahu is leading with over a lakh votes.
By analysing the reactions and mood of the region, here we list as many as seven factors that have contributed to the BJP’s success:
Yes to Kamal Nath, no to Nakul
One of the prevailing perceptions is encapsulated in the phrase, “Yes to Kamal Nath but no to Nakul.” While Kamal Nath is lauded for his personal interventions, such as covering educational expenses and medical bills for numerous individuals, sentiments have shifted. Many feel they have extended enough loyalty to the Nath family and now seek change. They also blame the arrogant behaviour of Junior Nath.
Notably, before the elections, Nakul Nath declared his assets worth 717 crore, which made him the richest candidate in the first phase of polling. He always travelled with his chopper. Off the camera, one of the locals in Chhidwara, Gagan Jain, questioned, “How come Nakul Nath has made so much property and maintains Rajshahi. It is all because of Kamal Nath,” he claimed.
Gagan, who backed Bunty, said, “Bunty Bhaiya, if catches you by the street, he will stop and talk to you; he has no chopper, he lives like a common man; this is what makes him different. We have never met Nakul Nath. Forget meeting; we have never seen him on the streets.”
Different Urban-Rural choices
During our visit, Organiser found stark differences in the choices of people living in the rural and the urban areas. While one clearly chose Modi’s guarantee, the people in the city were angry with the choices made by the saffron party.
While a substantial portion of the city’s voters support the BJP, Congress also garnered considerable backing.
Ashish Choudhary remarked, “Nakul Nath is winning from here because of the work Kamal Nath has done for Chhindwara. The Modi wave never worked here, it is the work that speaks for itself.” When asked about Kamal Nath’s achievements, some cited the establishment of a Medical College, while others cited the overall development of the town.
However, the BJP contends that it was during their tenure that several companies invested in Chhindwara, and the medical college was established under former CM Shivraj Singh’s rule.
Gagan Jain from Singodi asserted, “Bunty Bhaiya is poised for a clean sweep due to his accessibility to the common people. He resides in the heart of the city, and his office doors are open to all. Unlike Kamal Nath, whose residence lies on the outskirts, Bunty Bhaiya is a man of the people. He will pave the way for a brighter future for Chhindwara. Kamal Nath has fulfilled his role, now it’s time for change. People voted for Kamal Nath, not Nakul Nath.”
8000 Congress leaders joined BJP
Alkesh Lamba, Jila Karyalaya Mantri, informed Organiser that in the past few months, as many as 8,000 Congress leaders and workers have joined the BJP, many of whom are from tribal areas.
Lamba specifically mentioned notable defectors such as Kamlesh Shah from Amarwada, Deepak Saxena (known as the “Hanuman of Kamalnath”), Manmohan Bhatti, Vikram Aheke, the mayor who came with 11 councillors, Banti Patel, and Neeraj Patel. The exodus was most pronounced in the Amarwada and Harrai regions, dealt a significant blow to the Congress party.
Breaking down the defections by region, approximately 3,000 workers from Shehpura, 2,500 from Deepak Saxena’s stronghold, and over 1,500 from Harrai joined the BJP.
In February, rumours circulated about Kamal Nath potentially switching allegiance due to dissatisfaction with his Rajya Sabha membership and a ticket for his son. However, BJP leader Kailash Vijayvargiya firmly stated that there was no place for Kamal Nath in the saffron party.
Organiser visited Bangaon, an area known to be influenced by Deepak Saxena, and met with the sarpanch, Manoj Sahu. He said the region used to be a Congress stronghold, with 90 per cent of voters supporting the party.
However, this time, things have changed, and they will all vote for PM Modi. Asked why, Sahu said, “Because he made the dream of having Ram Mandir come true, he wears Hindutva unapologetically, and has made the name of our country.”
Tribals’ unwavering trust in Modi
Chhindwara is home to approximately 37 per cent of the Vanvasi community, consisting mainly of Gond, Mavasi, Bhil, and Bhariya tribes. When combined with the Scheduled Caste population, this figure rises to about 42 per cent of the total population. Since the 1950s, this segment of society has been a traditional supporter of the Congress party.
However, this perception had changed due to the concerted efforts of grassroots party workers and the implementation of various schemes and benefits by the central government. The Vanvasi community, long neglected, is now receiving attention under PM Modi like never before.
Organiser visited Kubdi village, where 90 per cent of the houses belong to tribals, located within the Nandodi panchayat of Chhindwara district, and spoke with several residents.
Sirju Bharti, a member of the Bhariya Janjati, confirmed, “I am 28 and will vote for the Modi government.”
Standing outside his partially constructed house, a beneficiary of the “Pradhan Mantri Awas Scheme,” Bharti shared that the village boasts around a hundred such houses. Although the panchayat has a school, there is no hospital. According to the latest data, approximately 75 houses have been built in the village under the PM Awas scheme.
Among the other beneficiaries are Mankar, Kumbhakaran, Sati Bharti, Chandra Lal, Meena, and many more. All those encountered by the correspondent expressed their intention to vote for Modi, as he is the one providing them with ration, kisan samman nidhi, pension for the Bhariya tribe, and a pucca house.
Who wears true Hindutva?
The Congress has a history of minority appeasement, and by rejecting the Ram Mandir invitation, they have once again demonstrated their loyalty. In contrast, Kamal Nath positions himself as a “Hanuman Bhakt,” but this narrative does not resonate with the people of the region.
Nath also installed a statue of Hanuman Ji in Chhindwara following a fatal accident on the same spot. He takes a parikrama of the statue every time before leaving the town and claims to have sent Ram Shilas for the Ram Mandir construction. Notably, the BJP plans to develop a “Hanuman Lok” similar to the “Mahakal Lok” built in Ujjain. The announcement was made by former CM Chouhan during the 2023 polls.
Speaking to Organiser, Bunty Sahu questioned Kamal Nath’s Hindutva, asking where he was on January 22?
He added that nothing else is required, just ask him where the “Hanuman Bhakt” was on January 22, when Ram Lalla returned to his home in Ayodhya.
BJP’s top brass in action
The BJP did everything it could to win the battle against Nath. They never won this seat since the 1990s but have not lost hope. From the Chief Minister of the state, Mohan Yadav, to Union Home Minister Amit Shah, all visited Chhindwara. The BJP party chief, JP Nadda, also visited the town.
Former CM Chouhan, after the assembly polls reached Chhindwara, said he had only one job left and that was to give all 29 seats to the centre from Madhya Pradesh.
No to Nath without CM post
In the previous election, the BJP party members claimed that Kamal Nath’s victory in the state elections was due to his promise of becoming the Chief Minister. However, this time, there is a noticeable shift in the atmosphere. With the BJP in power at both the state and central levels, the people in the region voted for more development.
The counting is still underway, but the outcome in Madhya Pradesh is clear, with the party leading in all seats. Bunty Sahu is leading in Chhindwara with a margin of over one lakh votes and the unthinkable has happened. The saffron party has managed to breach the Congress’ bastion. It is 29/29 from the heartland, justifying the campaign song, “MP ke man me Modi..”
Another closely watched seat in the state is Rajgarh, where former Chief Minister Digvijay Singh is trailing by more than one lakh votes against Rodmal Nagar. Organiser conducted a ground report in Rajgarh as well and predicted a similar fate for ‘Diggi Raja‘. You can read the detailed report here and watch the video report here.
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