One can think of it as sheer irony or perhaps, the consequence of a political melodrama that has been running non-stop in Delhi for almost a decade now, but in the week Delhi is supposed to be electing its Lok Sabha parliamentarians, it is thinking about the actions of its two Rajya Sabha parliamentarians. Swati Maliwal, who was assaulted inside the Chief Minister’s residence, and Sanjay Singh, who confirmed the assault the very next day in a press briefing.
Defiance, Denial, Delaying Tactics
The brazenness with which the party has conducted itself in the last ten days is appalling. The misbehaviour with Swati Maliwal, one of the first associates of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, went from being an internal party matter to a conspiracy of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) inside four days.
The news of Maliwal’s assault was first termed as fake and incorrect, then was suppressed, and was then finally sold as an attempt of the BJP to break up the Aam Aadmi Party by its supporters on social media. The same supporters, claiming truth to power, were unapologetic in the character assassination of Maliwal, a leader they once used to hail.
A Party on Bail
Before the voters of Delhi, a new version of AAP presents itself, unlike the one of 2019 and 2014. Today, the leaders of the party are embroiled in serious cases of corruption.Their leaders are either behind bars or in political hibernation, and the ones involved in political campaigning appear to be embroiled in an internal party battle. Kejriwal himself is out on interim bail until June 1, and as things stand today, he’s all set to go back to prison. Manish Sisodia, earlier this week, was denied relief, with Delhi High Court making scathing observations about his role in the formulation of the liquor policy.
The present conundrum the AAP finds itself in also dents the efforts of those political analysts, observers, and journalists who have been trying to equate Kejriwal with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha elections. To say that Kejriwal is a political parallel of Modi when it comes to the seven seats of Delhi is finding bliss in ignorance.
How the Numbers Stack Up
The numbers tell us a different story altogether. If one looks into the increase of the total number of votes for the BJP, the fallacy becomes clear. Between 2009 and 2014, when Kejriwal emerged on the streets of Delhi and Modi appeared on the national political scene, many, making lazy guesses, assumed Kejriwal would sweep the seven seats. The numbers tell a different story, however. In Chandni Chowk, the BJP vote share increased by 65 per cent between 2009 and 2014, and 18 per cent between 2014 and 2019. In North East Delhi, the BJP vote share increased by over 100 per cent between 2009 and 2014, and 32 per cent between 2014 and 2019. In East Delhi, BJP’s vote share jumped by 106 per cent between 2009 and 2014, and 21 per cent between 2014 and 2019. In New Delhi, the vote share jump of the BJP was 69 per cent between 2009 and 2014, and 11 per cent between 2014 and 2019. In North West Delhi, between 2009 and 2014, the vote share jump for BJP was almost 108 per cent, while between 2014 and 2019, it was 34 per cent. In West Delhi, between 2009 and 2014, the jump exceeded 85 per cent for the BJP, and 32 per cent between 2014 and 2019. Finally, in South Delhi, the jump was 86 per cent between 2009 and 2014, and 38 per cent between 2014 and 2019.
Distant Dreams, Immediate Realities
The new voters were going for Modi. A lot has changed for the AAP between 2019 and 2024, and the failures of the Kejriwal government to work with the Centre are quite visible. From free electricity and water, the conversation has now moved to the soaring debt of the Delhi Jal Board, the hike in electricity prices for the commercial establishments, and the overall failure of the governance model. Infamous for its advertising spree, the Kejriwal government has already been pulled by the apex court for not releasing funds for critical infrastructure projects.
Kejriwal’s Delhi dream of seven Lok Sabha seats has grown more distant because of his constant failures. A solution to the stubble burning and the consequent pollution the National capital region (NCR) suffers from is nowhere on the horizon. The continuous tussle with the Centre, along with the policy paralysis that may follow the national elections, assuming Kejriwal refuses to give up the Chief Minister’s office will also be weighing on the minds of voters.
While Kejriwal has let down the voters of Delhi, the Congress has disappointed its cadre by allying with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). For Congress, which swept Delhi in 2009, with over 50 per cent vote share in five seats, 2024 was an opportunity to at least reclaim a part of its vote share. However, they settled for the role of a junior partner in Delhi, and now find themselves shackled with the MSP (Maliwal-Scams-Policy Paralysis) baggage of the AAP.
The lack of cohesion within the alliance was visible after the bail of Kejriwal, and Rahul Gandhi’s refusal to share the stage with the Delhi CM in a recent rally in North Delhi. For BJP, a third-consecutive sweep is on the cards. The road to 400 seats for the National Democratic Alliance will also be paved with the 7 seats of Delhi, another seat in Chandigarh (AAP-Congress are in an alliance), and at least five seats in Punjab (AAP-Congress are not in alliance). The Modi factor triumphs both Kejriwal and Gandhis by light years in Delhi.
