Indian Union Muslim is the second largest and important constituent of the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala. The UDF came into existence in 1979. From early 1982 Kerala followed the rotatory system of governance. The power in the State revolved between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the UDF. The LDF is led by the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPI-M).
In the 2021 Assembly elections in Kerala, it was for the first time since 1982 when the UDF led Opposition did not bounce back to power. Since 1982 in Kerala after every election the power rotates between the CPM led LDF and the Congress party led UDF.
In the 2021 Assembly poll in Kerala within the UDF alliance, the Congress party contested on 92 seats while the IUML contested on only 25 seats. The Congress party won only 21 seats while the IUML won 15 seats. The striking rate of the Congress party was 23 per cent while that of the IUML was 60 per cent.
Even the UDF performance on 7 ACs of the Wayanand LS seat was unsatisfactory. Out of the seven ACs of the Wayanand LS seat 3 ACs were won by the LDF constituents. The vote share of the UDF was decreased by 27 percent within Wayanad LS seat.
After such abysmal performance by the Congress party in the 2021 Assembly election there is big churning within the UDF. It is clear that the UDF did not bounce back to power due to the bad performance of the Congress party. Now its moral obligation that for the welfare of the alliance the Congress party should give some of its seats to its allies in UDF.
The IUML is highly pleased with such abysmal performance of the Congress party as now it will get more weightage within the UDF. It will demand and get more seats within the UDF in coming elections. The IUML is known for blackmailing the Congress party and gaining maximum leverage. In 2019 when Rahul Gandhi decided to contest from Wayanad and the IUML solicited Ramnathpuram LS seat from the Congress party alliance in Tamil Nadu.
There was no record of IUML contesting from the seat in the past. The IUML will replicate its Ramnathpuram model in the 2026 Kerala Assembly election and the party will demand the post of Chief Ministership from the Congress party. The Congress party has no established leadership in Kerala as of now. Its last Chief Minister Oommen Chandy had died.
The IUML also understood the inability of the Congress to project its Chief Ministerial candidate in the pre-election phase. The IUML will fully capitalise such awkward conditions of the Congress party and will ask the Congress and the UDF to contest Assembly election under leadership of the IUML and give CM post in case of winning the election. This all shows that the Congress party is set to lose one of its strongholds like many others.
Kerala has special significance for the Congress party as in the last LS election the party won 15 out of 52 seats from the State. Rahul Gandhi also chose a seat from Kerala when he felt that he would lose from Amethi. So, in the coming days the significance of Kerala will grow more for the Gandhi family rather than the Congress party. The Congress party can go to any extent even to forgo Chief Ministerial position to the IUML in order to keep the party in good humour.
The Congress party and Rahul Gandhi don’t take even insignificant decisions without prior permission of the IUML. Even the Congress party did not participate in Ayodhya 22 January Pran Prastitha to keep IUML in good humour as without its support Rahul Gandhi cannot think of contesting from Wayanad.
The IUML had also adorned the post of Chief Minister before the formation of the UDF. For a short period of 53 days Mr. Cheriyan Kandi Muhammad Koya became the first IUML Chief Minister of Kerala
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