Despite much hue and cry, the Congress party has yet to decide on its candidate for the prestigious Lok Sabha Amethi and Rae Bareli seats. These seats are the last citadel of the first family of the Congress, the Gandhi family. These seats are neighbouring, and the Gandhi family has a lot of stakes in these seats. The Gandhi family scions, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, were not able to decide whether the seats through both the leaders are eyeing the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat; the latter is more comfortable for latterly between Amethi and Rae Bareli.
Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, such fiefdoms no longer remain safe. Many political fiefdoms were broken in the previous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. First, in such instances, there was the debacle of Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. In the past, Sanjay Gandhi and Maneka Gandhi were also defeated from the seat, but the political circumstances were completely different. Sanjay Gandhi, the first person from the family to contest for the seat, was defeated in 1977 in a wave of Emergency, and the Congress party was virtually wiped out in North India. Even his mother and two-time MP from Rae Bareli, Indira Gandhi, lost the seat in 1977.
Firstly, if we consider the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat, the margin of Congress party election after election has dwindled during the last three elections. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the Congress party’s worst performance on the five Assembly seats falls within the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat cannot be ignored. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the Congress party saved its deposit on only Bachhrawan and Sareni ACs out of five Assembly seats. On Harchandpur, Rae Bareli and Unchahar ACs, the Congress party forfeited its deposit. On Unchahar Assembly seat, the Congress party garnered only 4.71 per cent of votes. The main strength of the Congress party on Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seats is the alliance with the Samajwadi party. However, Unachahar SP MLA Manoj Kumar Pandey joined the BJP. This has significantly boosted the BJP prospects for the 2024 Lok Sabha election from the seat and weakened the I.N.D.I Alliance on the seat and in the State, too. Aditi Singh is also MLA from the Rae Bareli Assembly seat. So, the BJP will try to replicate its 2019 Amethi feat in Rae Bareli in 2024 and free the State from the Gandhi family of the Congress party. However, due to its alliance with the SP, the Gandhi family is optimistic about the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat. In the 2022 Assembly election, the Congress party got only 13.15 per cent of votes on five ACs of the Rae Bareli.
Amethi’s seat slipped from the hands of the Gandhi family in 2019 when Smriti Irani defeated a three-term MP from the seat of Rahul Gandhi. The Congress party’s performance in the 2022 Assembly election on the five Assembly seats of Amethi had further eroded their hope for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. In 2022, of the five ACs that fall within the Amethi Lok Sabha seat, the Congress party forfeited its deposit on four seats, barring Jagdhishpur. On Amethi and Salon ACs, the Congress party vote percentage was in the single digits. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the BJP won three of the five ACs with Amethi, while the Samajwadi Party won 2 ACs. But Gauriganj SP MLA Rakesh Pratap Singh joined the BJP. This has further increased the BJP’s stake in the seat for the 2024 Lok Sabha election while weakening the I.N.D.I Alliance of the seat. The Congress party garnered 14.28 per cent of the votes in the 2022 Assembly elections on all five seats of Amethi.
Has the Congress party forged an alliance with the Samajwadi Party only to put up an intense fight on these two Lok Sabha seats? One of the reasons for the Congress party and Rahul Gandhi to contest from either of the seats is that he wants to make himself inaccessible from the blackmailing of the Indian Union Muslim League in Kerala. In 2019, when Rahul Gandhi decided to contest from the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat, the IUML took Ramnathpuram Lok Sabha from the UPA alliance in neighbouring Tamil Nadu. The IUML has no history of contesting from the seat in the past. Again, in 2024, the IUML took the Ramnathpuram seat from the I.N.D.I Alliance in Tamil Nadu. Now, IUML is looking for the Chief Minister’s post in the 2026 Kerala Assembly election. In the 2021 Kerala Assembly election, the performance of the Congress party was at its nadir; it won only 21 seats by contesting 93 seats as a partner of the United Democratic Front (UDF).
On the other hand, the IUML won 15 seats while contesting only 25 seats. The striking rate of the IUML was 60 per cent, while that of the Congress party was only 23 per cent. The IUML firmly grips two of the seven Assembly segments within the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat. The Congress party and Rahul Gandhi will have to follow the dictates of the IUML if he remains MP from Wayanad. So, Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party want to free themselves from IUML’s clutches. The loss of the mass base of the Congress party is a big challenge for the Congress party, and the IUML will again blackmail the Congress party by soliciting the post of CM in the UDF alliance. In 1982, it was the first time in Kerala that the Opposition did not bounce back to power. This happened after Rahul Gandhi entered State politics.
Of the seven Assembly segments of Wayanad Lok Sabha seat, the UDF also lost its vote share of 27 per cent in the Assembly election in 2021 than its vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. These two examples are enough to demonstrate Rahul Gandhi’s popularity in Kerala.
