India strives for balance amidst cascade of wars and rapid realignment of China-Russia-Iran

In trying times of multiple wars fought in diverse regions, the imminent fears of the volatile world order. India presents itself as a much-needed bridge amidst the prominent great power contestations. The West versus China-Russia-Iran has further embroiled the situation, the repercussions are stifling.

The world appears to be spiralling out from the adverse effects of the ongoing conflicts occurring in different parts of the world. Ukraine-Russia war which commenced more than two years ago does not seem to settle down anytime soon or going forward to conclusively end the horrendous fight. Meanwhile, when the world was already preoccupied to douse the ongoing blaze in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas catastrophe further exacerbated the situation.

The Gaza conflict despite reiterating the urge for ceasefire, it is spreading like wildfire, no simmering down at all. In fact, it has now created an additional angle where this proxy war is openly fought between two regional adversaries— Israel and Iran. Thus, an imminent fear of widespread of regional conflict has brought the world to an edge.

This is true that the conflicts fought in the Eurasian and West Asian region are deeply rooted in their own historical and political contexts. However, in this interconnected and globalised world, even the repercussions of the wars are not observed in isolation. Especially, when great power rivalries are further taking shape in the multipolar world order which is always in flux. There are plural centres of power, but the titular roles are essayed by the US and China who are grappling with their own inner fault lines, limitations and domestic constraints. This is creating a certain vacuum, which is quickly being occupied by the alternate poles of power. This has built the space for the emerging and middle powers to hedge, balance and bandwagon actions for autonomy from the binaries.

The ‘Me versus Us’ syndrome endorsed between the great powers have called for more prominent and potentially dangerous alignments. Although there are no distinct blocs, but certain vested interests of the big players are apparently visible. For instance, in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, NATO seems to have found a legitimate purpose following Russia’s assault on Ukraine, however with the deep concerns running within the American policymakers, the US has avoided to confront. The essentially evolving China-Russia-Iran and also North Korea axis, this equation is largely based on their mutual anti-west sentiments. But this reason is not sufficient to contain the west in the long run as the triad is limited in nature. This is a single pronged power axis.

Meanwhile, the strategic outcomes observed in the recent events are the forces of cautions used in the persistent spillover of Gaza war by the great power rivals as they have been exposed to be able to exert only limited influence. The reason is that the situation emerging in the region does not necessarily serve either’s strategic interests.

Another fissure is emerging between the US and Israel. Initially, the US and the west were seen at the forefront, supporting Israel in its war against Hamas, but since the direct face-off between Iran and Israel have begun, the US and the west has supported Israel and call for de-escalation, but not very explicitly, rather reluctantly. The condemnation of this entire episode has been symbolic.

On the other hand, China and Russia have been critical of Israeli actions since October 2023. Amid the Iran-Israel tensions, Beijing has backed Iran and sought to preserve its tenuous effort at reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Tehran. Even Russia has become a Iran’s largest military backer since 2022 and threw its diplomatic weight behind Iran’s “retaliatory measures” on April 14 against Israel. In a quid pro quo, Iran has also supported Russia in the war brewing in its backyard.  Circumventing sanctions has been easier for each.

According to a recent US Congress report, Iran not only maintains a steady supply of drones, air-to-ground munitions, and artillery ammunition to Russia, but it is also building a drone production factory inside Russian territory. The budding equations between the trio is also seen in the next power hub, the Indo Pacific region. They have been collaboratively participating annually in the trilateral naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean.

Russia and China have been publicly displaying overwhelming support to each other. However, if the relationship is zoomed in the power asymmetry exists. The war in Ukraine has altered the European geo-strategic considerations. The transatlantic unity is rejuvenated. Yet, the American political climate bears much of the momentum. While China seeks to leverage its new regional security architecture with Russia and choke Europe by pretending neutral,. Russia has become more dependent on China than ever, without even realising it has invited its own doom by falling in the trap and giving unlimited access. Their relationship is not going to result in positive or collective good for the non-west, rather, it is just a substitute for the west.

The tricky landscape and a landmine like the world order have also affected India’s external environment. Security dilemma is a real time challenge. A more volatile world makes pursuing development security all the more challenging. The partnership of China-Russia-Iran has trickle down effects for India because the latter is actively involved with the triad in vital regional initiatives like SCO and BRICS. Their anti-West sentiments are not something that India shares. India is not antithetical to the west; rather, it wants inclusion for the non-west. The travesty of the trio is hellbent on removing the West at any cost. This is particularly the case given India’s democratic values, deepening ties with the US and Europe, and its strategic competition with China. This is absolutely pernicious to India’s approach to multi-alignment.

The emerging and alarming conditions prevailing in the West Asian region have serious implications for India as well. India has supported the Washington driven Abraham Accords and also does not want to be dragged into the conflict between Gulf Arabs and Iran. But it is not a mute bystander in West Asia. For India, the region is constituted as an extended neighbourhood. India shares extraordinarily well positioned relations with the regional powers.

However, the turmoil affects security and the diaspora in the Gulf. The galvanised boost to the Global South would also be impacted. It becomes imperative to broker diplomatic solutions and cease the war. India supports a two state solution, which has been reiterated by Arabs on innumerable occasions. The task is difficult to achieve, but the caveats are already known and can be mitigated if there is political will to do so. A multitude of state players are involved who have tried their hands to stabilise the situation. The current crises have opened the room to boldly think about restoring peace, and the stakes are higher than ever.